PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

427 Posts
PropBetGuy
427 Posts
Role
Prop Bet Expert
Experience
14 years
Location
New Jersey
Total Bets
4.7K
Followers
53.5K

Summary

PropBetGuy contributes written content for the Action Network focused around his daily player prop bets.

He started his betting career more than a decade ago and has been providing his picks with analysis on social media since 2020.

Experience

PropBetGuy started out as a casual bettor, mainly focusing on game sides and totals before unearthing his love for player props.

Now betting player props almost exclusively, PropBetGuy took to social media to post his picks and detailed analyses in the beginning of 2020.

Priding himself on long-term success and process transparency, he’s considered one of the first movers in the single-unit prop betting corner of social media sites like Twitter/X.

Since taking his picks public, PropBetGuy has appeared on various local and national outlets, including VSiN and ESPN Radio.

Education

PropBetGuy has bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Binghamton University.

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Prop Bet Guy's Picks

Today
Pending
2-WAY PARLAY-104
1.04u
Two guys who’ve been injured most of the season, but are rounding into form lately.
Gadsden is over this line in both of Syracuse’s games, with a 21% target share. Gets a Stanford defense that allowed the most passing yards per game last season, and let TCU put up 350 on them in there only power conference game so far. Smash spot for the Cuse passing game - love Gadsden to go off - I have him in the mid 80s.
Over in 1/2 games (but the miss was in a tough spot vs DET) - has been much more productive than White, who is not 100%. Great spot vs a DEN team that’s allowed a ton of volume and production on the ground (33 attempts and 140 yards in each game).
This game really should suit Diggs. He’s primarily running routes from the slot (62%). Only 9 catches through 2 games (6 targets in each). He’s been the quick-hitter low aDOT guy (5.4, compared to Nico 13.6 and Tank 14.4). The Vikings are blitz heavy - the 6th highest rate, and garnering pressure at the 2nd highest rate. Blitzing and pressure dating back to last season lowers Stroud’s aDOT and time to throw lessen (as one would expect). The Vikings allowing an avg aDOT of 6.4 yards (8th lowest) after 7.3 last season (7th lowest). Deebo and WanDale - the two lower aDOT options amongst WR on their teams, had 8 and 6 catches in the Vikings two games (both with double digit targets). Mixon is banged up, even if he plays, it’s easy to see the Texans going pass-heavy. Diggs has run a route on 95%+ of Stroud’s dropbacks. I have him closer to 8 targets in this one. And yeah, he should be pumped to be playing back in Minnesota for the first time.
Too low for Warren, who was the more impressive back last week. Now, I don’t expect Arthur Smith to do anything rational, but the Steelers will run the ball. The Chargers run defense seems legit, but they’ve also faced two very sub-par running offenses. This game should be played close throughout (no matter who is QB’ing either team).
Robinson under in 1/2 (miss was 15). 5.5 aDOT is the exact same as last season (under in 10/15). Brutal spot against the Browns secondary who’ve only allowed 6 receptions of 14 targets to WRs in the slot this season.
Dating back to 2020, he’s over this line in 11/L12 coming off a loss (injuries excluded). Obviously his schemes are different now, but after the Ravens dropped two straight, and now get a spot in Dallas, I expect Lamar to take matters into his own hands. The Cowboys are a tough matchup for the Ravens passing game, and Jackson should be able to use his speed against DAL’s mediocre linebacker room. Plus, the Cowboys run game is pretty bad right now, which leads to more passing. More passing leads to shorter possessions, and in turn, more plays for the Ravens offense.
Over in 2/2 as is, and SF already with a lack of reliable targets with no Deebo or CMC.
Williams is over in both games. He’s third in the NFL in air yards, with 127 and 129 in his two games (per FTN Fantasy), and drawing a 23% target share from Jared Goff. He gets the Cardinals, who were dead last in DVOA against deep passes last season (FTN) and 6th worst so far this season. Should be a back and forth game where both teams are airing it out.
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday2-2-050%
0.32u
Last 7 Days22-17-056%
4.90u
Last 30 Days75-64-054%
5.19u
All Time2428-2200-3952%
41.47u
Top Leagues
NFL364-277-157%
62.41u
NCAAB336-245-457%
51.64u
NCAAF52-43-154%
2.68u
OLYMPIC_BASKETBALL0-1-00%
-1.18u
WNBA23-23-248%
-4.35u
MLB903-883-1350%
-24.14u
NBA750-725-1850%
-42.14u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
DeAndre Hopkins catching a Hail Mary while being triple-teamed to cash his reception prop.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Too many worst beats to count, but losing a Josh Allen rushing attempts prop by one because the Bills sent out Trubisky to kneel it out really stands out.
Specialties
  • NFL props
  • NBA props
  • MLB props