Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2360 Posts
Sean Koerner
2360 Posts
NFL, college football, college basketball, player projections. have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
3.6K
Followers
347.6K

Summary

Sean runs the predictive analytics at Action Network. From the in-game win probabilities in the award-winning Action Network app, to the DFS models on FantasyLabs, to the fantasy football rankings across the network. He also churns out fantasy/betting content for the NFL and is co-host for the Fantasy Flex pod and the betting show Convince Me

Sean creates projects for nearly every sport, from the WNBA to MLB to college hoops and everything in between.

Experience & Accolades

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books creating prediction models and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

More from Sean Koerner
Cowboys vs. Lions: Koerner's Picks & Props for TNF ImageNFL

Cowboys vs. Lions: Koerner's Picks & Props for TNF

Sean Koerner
Dec 4, 2025 UTC
NFL

Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island

Sean Koerner
Dec 4, 2025 UTC
NFL

NFL Week 13 Picks, Player Props, & Parlays! | Action Playbook LIVE

Sean Koerner
Nov 29, 2025 UTC
Koerner's Brock Purdy Prop for MNF ImageNFL

Koerner's Brock Purdy Prop for MNF

Sean Koerner
Nov 24, 2025 UTC
Koerner's NFL Week 12 Player Props ImageNFL

Koerner's NFL Week 12 Player Props

Sean Koerner
Nov 22, 2025 UTC
NFL

NFL Week 12 Picks, Player Props, & Parlays! | Action Playbook LIVE

Sean Koerner
Nov 22, 2025 UTC
NFL

NFL Week 11 Picks, Player Props, & Parlays! | Action Playbook LIVE

Sean Koerner
Nov 16, 2025 UTC
Koerner's Defensive Prop Bet for TNF ImageNFL

Koerner's Defensive Prop Bet for TNF

Sean Koerner
Nov 13, 2025 UTC
NFL

NFL Week 10 Picks, Player Props, & Parlays! | Action Playbook LIVE

Sean Koerner
Nov 8, 2025 UTC
Koerner's Bo Nix Prop Bet for TNF ImageNFL

Koerner's Bo Nix Prop Bet for TNF

Sean Koerner
Nov 6, 2025 UTC
NFL

Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For Raiders vs. Broncos! | Action Island

Sean Koerner
Nov 6, 2025 UTC
1
...

Sean Koerner's Picks

Today
Pending
Has yet to miss a kick this year that hasn’t hit a wire/cable. Projecting closer to a 60% chance he gets 2+
133
14
Projecting him closer to 75.5 with around a 59% chance he clears 69.5
171
15
Projecting him closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5
156
16
He’s the ball carrier in their version of the Tush Push and has been incredibly effective with a 89% success rate (highest for any player with at least 5+ carries) + he’s the lead pass catching TE. They let him get a rush TD at the goal-line a few weeks ago and I would expect maybe 1-2 more of those for him over the final several weeks. Still think the market is a bit behind in his sneaky upside in this market right now. Projecting him closer to +180
134
16
Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a 2nd round WR 12 games into their career. I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway. But with Thornton and Mayer ruled out for this game I’m expecting him to see a massive increase in usage here. Projecting him closer to 25.5 with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5
102
6
After losing his rec yards prop in brutal fashion last week by 0.5 yard, I’m going to stick with the market I think suits him better anyway. When evaluating rookie WRs, it’s always important to look at both talent and landing spot. Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were two of the top WRs of this year’s class and landed in ideal situations to produce right away. Both benefited from trades or injuries that elevated their usage even more. Burden, on the other hand, was a fringe 1st round talent who landed in a very crowded room of pass catchers with limited passing yards to go around. That was always going to make him easy to overlook. I’m not saying he’s the same talent as CeeDee Lamb or JSN, but I’ve pointed out he could have a similar career arc where he starts behind 2+ established WRs, then eventually sees a production jump as injuries happen or the team moves on from someone like DJ Moore. He recently passed Olamide Zaccheus to become the team’s #3 WR, but he has still been topping out around a 60–65% routes-run rate. With Rome Odunze ruled out this week, we could see his first game in a more full-time role, potentially 80%+ routes, and with one fewer high-end WR to compete for targets with. This is the type of stretch where I’m expecting Burden to show more of a true breakout. The matchup is brutal, but the Bears may be forced to throw at a higher rate, and they clearly want to find ways to get the ball in his hands, as we saw with the pop-pass look last week. This is the better market to invest in his upside, and I’m projecting him closer to a 62% chance to clear 3.5 receptions.
21
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
26
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
87
25
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
17
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
17
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days9-6-060%
1.21u
Last 30 Days36-31-054%
1.28u
All Time1985-1598-3155%
231.37u
Top Leagues
NFL1159-915-1955%
137.40u
MLB298-247-454%
42.72u
NCAAB262-210-355%
28.85u
WNBA147-118-355%
19.47u
NCAAF36-24-258%
6.09u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
Golf0-3-00%
-0.60u
NBA78-74-051%
-2.77u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point