Liverpool look to keep their winning run going when they travel to Germany to take on RB Leipzig.
There will be a familiar face in the crowd for this match. Jurgen Klopp has taken a job as the director of global football for all Red Bull teams and wouldn't you know it, RB Leipzig's first Champions League match since he was hired is against the team he managed for nine years. RB Leipzig are in stunning form right now domestically, sitting atop the Bundesliga table, but will be desperate for three points after losing their first two Champions League matches.
Liverpool's red hot form continued over the weekend as they notched a 2-1 win over Chelsea to remain at the top of the Premier League table.
Let's get into my RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool predictions ahead of their exciting Champions League matchup.
RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool Odds, Picks, Prediction
| RB Leipzig Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | +300 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | -125 |
- RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool moneyline odds: RB Leipzig +300, Liverpool -125, Draw +300
- RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool over/under: 2.5 goals (over -200, under +162)
- RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool pick: Under 3
I am backing the under 3 in Liverpool vs. RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig Preview
RB Leipzig are set up really well to play without the ball. A staple under Marco Rose is his 4-2-2-2 system where he wants his team to attack through the middle of the pitch. They have two outstanding attackers in Benjamin Šeško and Loïs Openda, who have combined for six goals and three assists in only seven Bundesliga matches.
The 4-2-2-2 formation also allows Leipzig to maintain a very narrow shape, so teams aren't able to control or hurt them through the middle of the pitch. In a very high-event league, RB Leipzig have only conceded two total goals in the Bundesliga, but they have drastically over-performed because they have conced 7.8 expected goals.
They have not been good defensively in their first two Champions League matches. Last season RB Leipzig were put in a group with Manchester City, which is the closest thing to what Liverpool are right now, and they struggled. Manchester City beat them in both meetings with RB Leipzig only created a total of one expected goal.
Liverpool Preview
It's the same story every week, but Liverpool's tactical changes under Arne Slot continue to allow them to have more control over matches. Klopp's Liverpool had the highest ceiling of any team in England for a long time, but playing that direct and aggressive was a gamble and often ended up costing Liverpool key points against lesser competition.
The Reds are doing a great job of winning the ball out of their 4-2-4 mid block because of the ball winning in the middle of the pitch that they didn't have for a lot of the season under Jurgen Klopp. Sometimes Liverpool will look to hit teams quickly in transition after winning the ball, but more often than not when they win the ball they are slowing the pace down, passing it backwards and setting up their build up, which is one of the reasons why their matches have been low scoring.
One of the best aspects under Arne Slot is Liverpool’s transition defense. When they lose the ball they are always making sure the opponent doesn’t have a numerical advantage on the break and it also helps that they have two of the best center backs in Van Dijk and Konate, who can both cover a lot of ground and are elite at winning ground duels, which is huge against a team like RB Leipzig, who are incredibly dangerous in transition.
By the numbers, Liverpool have not only been the best defensive team in the Premier League, but perhaps the world. Juventus, Bayern Munich and Monaco are the only three teams that are allowing a lower xG per 90 minutes than Liverpool right now, so they really should be able to keep RB Leipzig in check even if this match is away from home.
RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool Prediction
Every single Liverpool match has gone under the opening total and no Liverpool match has seen more than 3.1 expected goals created in it, so why would this match be any different?
Even if RB Leipzig decide to press high up the pitch, which I don't think they will do for a majority of the match, Liverpool have been so effective using their three man passing combinations to play through opponents. The blueprint to beating Liverpool is doing what Nottingham Forest did, which is sitting in a compact defensive structure and not allowing Slot's team to overload the middle, forcing them to play the ball out wide to try and beat them with crosses.
These have been two of the better defensive teams in Europe to begin the season, so I think this match is going to be very low event. I like the value on the under at +105.
