Mets vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - July 9, 2023

Mets at Padres

8:10 pm • SDPA

New York Mets

0-0

2 - 6

San Diego Padres

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Musgrove			3.05	10-3
M.Scherzer			3.20	4-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 0-0	+1.5-192	o8-105	+110
Padres 1-2	-1.5+160	u8-115	-130

Sunday 8:10 p.m.

July 09, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Under 4.5 (F5)-130

1.3u

Sunday Expert NRFI Bet: Combine Musgrove & Luzardo
Shayne Trail•
Jul 9, 2023 UTC

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The Mets are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.

62% of Tommy Pham fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Joe Musgrove has located his fastball up 49% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

68% of Francisco Lindor fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- third highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Joe Musgrove has located his fastball up 49% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .130 (23 PA's) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days (2 games) -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (25/53) against Joe Musgrove over the past seven days (1 games) -- 2nd best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 25% -- 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (244 balls in play) -- tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 85.7

Max Scherzer has struck out 52% (12/23) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days (2 games) -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Padres' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	87-75	45-36	42-39	44-49	42-26
Mets	74-88	39-42	35-46	48-67	26-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	69-89-4	34-46-1	35-43-3	46-45-2	23-43-2
Mets	76-80-6	40-39-2	36-41-4	54-55-6	22-25

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	90-72	52-29	38-43	56-37	33-35
Mets	83-79	49-32	34-47	64-51	19-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 9th	NYM	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -180
Jul 8th	NYM	L 5-7	-1.5 L	O 8	NYM -124
Jul 6th	LAA	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -178
Jul 4th	LAA	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	SD -151
Jul 4th	LAA	W 10-3	-1.5 W	O 8	SD -200

Jesse Winker
LF
Winker is out with back
Out
Griffin Canning
SP
Canning is out with achilles
Out
Nicklaus Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Joseph Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Scherzer, P	100	5	7	5
LT.McFarland, P	25	0.1	1	0
RG.Hartwig, P	12	1.2	0	0
RD.Leone, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-3	1	0
2T.Pham, LF	0-1	0	0
2M.Canha, LF	1-2	0	2
3F.Lindor, SS	1-4	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0
5J.McNeil, RF	1-3	0	0
6D.Stewart, DH	1-3	0	0
7F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0
8B.Baty, 3B	0-3	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 2B	1-3	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Musgrove, P	88	6	7	0
LT.Hill, P	13	1	1	0
LA.Morejon, P	21	1	0	2
LT.Cosgrove, P	14	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1H.Kim, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
2J.Soto, LF	0-3	0	0	0
3F.Tatis, RF	2-4	2	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	2-4	2	2	5
5X.Bogaerts, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Sanchez, C	1-4	1	0	0
8R. Odor, DH	0-3	0	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	1-3	0	0	1