We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Syracuse Mets @ Rochester Red Wings
Friday, 6:45 PM ET
I wrote over a month ago that Rochester was undervalued, and the Red Wings have now completed their breakout, taking sole possession of first place in the International League East Division.
That said, I think Rochester has some value coming into the weekend, as the Red Wings have lost back-to-back games, and their I-90 rival (Syracuse) comes into play with a winning record, just 4.5 games behind the Red Wings.
The “breakout” I foreshadowed in these write-ups had to do with the Rochester lineup, which has exploded ever since Brady House was sent back down and Seaver King got the call-up from Double-A.
Yohandy Morales and Abilmelec Ortiz have been two of the hottest hitters in all of Triple-A. When you sprinkle in the likes of Christian Franklin, Joey Wiemer, Robert Hassell III, and Harry Ford, you end up with one of the better lineups in all of Minor League Baseball.
While valid, it’s also somewhat “known” by the books, as the Rochester offense has been on fire during their winning streak.
However, aside from Riley Cornelio (who pitched on Wednesday), the consensus belief is that Rochester doesn’t have the pitching to keep up with the lineup. But Washington’s front office has made some moves in that department that should really help the Red Wings this weekend.
The starter I’m most interested in is Jackson Kent, who recently got the call after dominating at Double-A Harrisburg. Kent posted a 2.35 ERA, .176 BAA, and 0.88 WHIP at Double-A. He then fired five innings without allowing an earned run in his Triple-A debut in Worcester last week.
Syracuse hasn’t had the same lineup punch since the AJ Ewing call-up, and now the Mets have less pitching with Jonah Tong getting the promotion last week.
I also think we end up getting a discount on Kent since he doesn’t have a real sample size at the Triple-A level.
Kent is the likely Friday starter, but I don’t think Rochester will be at a pitching disadvantage in any of the three games.
Pick: Rochester Red Wings ML
El Paso Chihuahuas @ Albuquerque Isotopes
Friday, 8:35 PM ET
I think these two teams are about to go in different directions.
The Isotopes enter Friday at 30-24, off to one of their best starts in years. However, Colorado’s front office made a slew of roster moves over the past week that have watered down Albuquerque’s roster.
Albuquerque didn't have much pitching to begin with, and while it lost some key arms, El Paso recently got some lineup reinforcements.
Pablo Reyes is having a great season and returned from injury this week. Will Wagner came back from injury a few weeks ago and was assigned to El Paso after his rehab stint. Samad Taylor and Jase Bowen have been two uber-consistent hitters. Minor League journeyman Nick Solak has been hitting.
Suddenly, El Paso’s lineup is starting to look pretty good.
If you power rate these two teams evenly on offense (which I do), I think El Paso has a good edge this weekend, as the Chihuahuas’ collection of pitchers over the next three days is better and deeper than what Albuquerque will run out there.
Pick: El Paso Chihuahuas ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Rochester ML (vs. Syracuse, 6:45 PM ET)
- El Paso ML (@ Albuquerque, 8:35 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
