We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Worcester Red Sox @ Scranton Rail Riders
Tuesday, 6:05 PM ET
Worcester was just smacked around at home all week by a red-hot Rochester squad, and things won’t get much easier for the Woo Sox when they hit the road to take on a suddenly loaded Scranton team.
From a pitching/hitting combo standpoint, I think Scranton is as good as any team in Triple-A right now, and the books might not have caught up since a couple of the Rail Riders' top players didn’t play last week.
Marco Luciano missed last week with an injury, but he was only on the seven-day IL and will be eligible to return this week. Spencer Jones was sent back down but given a couple of days to regroup.
At minimum, I expect Jones to return to a lineup that already features a red-hot Yanquiel Fernandez, big-time prospect George Lombard, and recent call-up Tyler Hardman (who has been having an excellent season at Double-A).
Putting Jones back in this lineup is a massive upgrade, but if Luciano makes his way back this week, it's just an added bonus to a lineup that should do damage to any Woo Sox pitcher not named Jake Bennett (if Worcester is going to win this week, it’s probably when he’s on the mound).
Even a Worcester win with Bennett is far from a sure thing, as Scranton is loaded in the pitching department.
Great pitching has been hard to come by at the Triple-A level this season, but Scranton has three of the level’s better starters right now in Carlos LaGrange, Elmer Rodriguez, and Brendan Beck, as well as three of the better relievers, with Yovanny Cruz being sent down to join a bullpen that has Bradley Hanner and Eric Reyzelman throwing it extremely well of late.
Three legit starters, three legit relievers, and five legitimate offensive threats are simply not something you will find on many other teams in Triple-A right now.
Worcester managed to rack up wins early this season against the easy part of its schedule, but for me, the Woo Sox have one of the worst rosters in the International League.
I’d be surprised if Scranton doesn’t take four of six in this series.
Pick: Scranton Rail Riders ML
Las Vegas Aviators @ Tacoma Riders
Tuesday, 9:05 PM ET
The A’s dipped into their talent pool about a month ago, which hurt Las Vegas in the short term, but there are so many prospects in the A’s organization that the Aviators have bounced back via some call-ups.
Joshua Kurdoa-Grauer has now arrived at Triple-A and quickly gives Las Vegas a new best player. Tommy White got the call a couple of weeks prior, and he’s been solid while veteran guys like Cade Marlowe and Joey Meneses have been productive of late for the Aviators.
Las Vegas has a pair of veteran catchers in Brian Serven and Bryan Lavastida, who are helping the young pitching staff but have also contributed at the plate. Brett Harris is also a decent offensive option at this level.
Altogether, Las Vegas has a formidable lineup.
Las Vegas has more pitching I’m interested in backing than Tacoma, which I think gives the Aviators the upper hand in this series.
Tacoma has had one of the worst lineups in the PCL since Colt Emerson was poached by the Mariners, and the Aviators have a fairly veteran starting rotation that should fare well in what is one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the PCL.
I’ll also be looking for Denzel Clarke to pop up in the Las Vegas lineup if they decide to give him another day or two as part of his rehab assignment.
No matter how you slice it, Las Vegas is a better, deeper team than Tacoma is right now, but the Rainiers tend to get love when they play at home, which could give us some nice price and spot combinations on the visitors this week.
Pick: Las Vegas Aviators ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Scranton ML (vs. Worcester, 6:05 PM ET)
- Las Vegas ML (@ Tacoma, 9:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
