The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs clash on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. First pitch is at 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Splash signing Corbin Burnes, who's been underwhelming early, makes the start for the Diamondbacks on Friday. Should bettors fade Burnes during this cold stretch?
Continue below for my Friday Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction and parlay, plus the latest MLB odds, probable pitchers, starting lineups, betting trends and more.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Parlay
- Cubs Moneyline
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Hit
- Pavin Smith Hit
Parlay odds: +395 (DraftKings)
As I'll explain below in my preview, I believe there's major value on the Cubs moneyline considering the poor form Corbin Burnes has shown early in the season.
As for the hitter props, Pete Crow-Armstrong has shown positive signs early this season, batting .259 with a .770 OPS. Pavin Smith is a platoon bat who mashes right-handed pitching.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 11.5 +100o / -120u | -105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 11.5 +100o / -120u | -115 |
- Cubs vs Diamondbacks Moneyline: Cubs -105, D-backs -115
- Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total: 11.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Cubs vs Diamondbacks Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-155), D-backs -1.5 (+125)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Corbin Burnes (ARI) | Stat | Colin Rea (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 0-0 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 5.28 / 5.72 | ERA /xERA | 1.00 / 4.77 |
| 5.88 / 4.64 | FIP / xFIP | 1.79 / 3.85 |
| 1.57 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 7.2% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 46.5% | GB% | 32.1% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 91 | Location+ | 98 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Preview & Prediction
D-backs Betting Preview: Starting Lineup; Can Burnes Find Form?
Diamondbacks Starting lineup
- Corbin Carroll RF
- Geraldo Perdomo SS
- Pavin Smith DH
- Josh Naylor 1B
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
- Eugenio Suárez 3B
- Gabriel Moreno C
- Jake McCarthy CF
- Garrett Hampson 2B
Perennial Cy Young Award candidate Corbin Burnes has gotten off to a less-than-stellar start in the desert after signing with Arizona over the offseason.
In three starts, Burnes has a 5.28 ERA and has yet to record a win; he has allowed at least three runs in every outing.
Burnes is not an elite strikeout guy, but he has consistently been near the top of the league at limiting hard contact, using his cutter-curveball mix to keep hitters off balance.
However, through three starts this season he is allowing a hard-hit rate of 54.5%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the league. His cutter is being smashed, and his walk rate has doubled since last season.
Despite missing the playoffs last year, the Diamondbacks finished with the best offense in the league. They ranked first in runs scored and had the highest team OPS.
The Snakes have picked up right where they left off, currently sitting second in team OPS and third in runs scored this season.
Arizona is without All-Star Ketel Marte for a bit, but Corbin Carroll has bounced back in a massive way from a slow start last year.
Carroll is batting .321 with a 1.065 OPS, good for fifth in the league. He has already hit six home runs.
Carroll has had help from newly acquired Josh Naylor, a hot start from Pavin Smith, and Geraldo Perdomo filling in nicely for Marte.
Cubs Betting Preview: Starting Lineup; Chicago Mashing
Cubs Starting Lineup
- Ian Happ LF
- Kyle Tucker RF
- Seiya Suzuki DH
- Michael Busch 1B
- Dansby Swanson SS
- Nico Hoerner 2B
- Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- Carson Kelly C
- Vidal Brujan 3B
Burnes’ former teammate in Milwaukee will be on the other side as Colin Rea gets the ball for Chicago.
Rea started the season working out of the bullpen, but with the season-ending injury to Justin Steele, Rea has been moved back to the starting rotation. In his first start he pitched just 3 2/3 innings as he continues to get stretched out, but he looked good, allowing just one run while strikeout five against the Dodgers.
Rea signed with the Cubs over the offseason following his career-best season with the Brewers last year. Rea went 12-6 with a 4.29 ERA. He is a back-end-of-the-rotation guy who doesn’t do anything at an above-average level other than consistently throw strikes.
As good as Arizona has started the year at the plate, Chicago has been better. The Cubs are off to a red-hot start, leading the league with 124 runs scored. They do everything well. They have power, ranking fourth in home runs, but also lead the league in walks and second in stolen bases.
Seven of the Cubs' starters have a wRC+ above 105, led by super star Kyle Tucker. The newly acquired outfield has an OPS of .988.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has also taken a big step offensively, to go along with his elite defense and base running. Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch are also off to great starts.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Moneyline Pick
Do I think Burnes will return to his elite form? Sure.
But through three starts this season his metrics are concerning. He has allowed at least three runs in each start. He has managed just three strikeouts in each of the last two outings, with the same amount of walks allowed as punchouts.
What is most concerning about Burnes’ 5.28 ERA is his xERA is even higher at 5.72. His walk rate is double what he posted last season, and his strikeout rate would be a career low. Burnes ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in hard-hit rate allowed and his two best pitches have been crushed by opponents.
Rea is just a back-end starter, but he throws strikes and limits hard contact at an above-average rate. He has tweaked his pitch mix this year, leaning into what worked best.
Last season, his fastball and sweeper were the only two pitches that finished with a positive run value of his six-pitch mix. He threw those two pitches 19.2% and 17.2% of the time, respectively, ranking third and fourth among his offerings.
So far this season, Rea is throwing his fastball 43% of the time and his sweeper 20% of the time, and they have become his two most-thrown pitches.
As good as the Diamondbacks offense is, the Cubs are one of the few teams that can match them, if not have an advantage. Chicago has shown it can hit for power and clear the bases in a hurry, or work the count and draw walks and use its speed on the base paths.
The Cubs will return home after an off day so their bullpen will be fully rested while Arizona has used Justin Martinez, Jalen Beeks, and A.J. Puk on consecutive days.
Burnes is the big-name star on the mound, but given his current form, this game is much more of a coin flip.
Pick: Cubs +115 (Play to +100)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Cubs' 8 last games at home
- Cubs hitters have an OPS of 1.342 (82 PA's) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.119
D-backs Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. |
| Date: | Friday, April 18 |
| Time: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network; Marquee; Dbacks.TV |
