Two of the National League's best teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers, clash on Friday night at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network. My preview for this battle between potential MLB postseason foes — plus my Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction and moneyline pick — is below.
After clinching the NL Central on Wednesday, the Brewers had a letdown in the series opener against the D-backs on Thursday, when they managed only one run and two hits. Milwaukee will look to bounce back on Friday against Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, who has pitched to a 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings since the All-Star break. Colin Rea will start for Milwaukee, looking to stabilize ahead of the postseason after a horrid stretch of results.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Predictions
- Diamondbacks-Brewers picks: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-122 | Play to -140)
My Diamondbacks-Brewers best bet is on the Diamondbacks moneyline, where I see value at -122. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Odds
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +114 |
- Diamondbacks-Brewers Moneyline: D-backs -135 | Brewers +114
- Diamondbacks-Brewers Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-108o / -112u)
- Diamondbacks-Brewers Spread: D-backs -1.5 (+124) | Brewers +1.5 (-148)
D-backs at Brewers: Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 12-5 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.61/3.95 | ERA /xERA | 4.14/4.92 |
| 3.28/3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 4.75/4.44 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 15.5% | K-BB% | 12.9% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 39.0% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Diamondbacks vs Brewers Preview
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Zac Gallen Rolling into Friday
Gallen has put together a solid second half of the season, and could potentially even end up besting his 2023 ERA of 3.47 with a strong finish. Over his last 49 1/3 IP, he holds an ERA of 3.47 with an xFIP of 3.76. He has struck out 9.85 batters per nine in that span, and allowed an xBA of .228.
Across Gallen's last three starts, he holds to a Stuff+ rating of 106 and a Pitching+ rating of 108, which are both significant improvements upon his season-long metrics. In those three starts, he has thrown first-pitch strikes 79% of the time.
The Diamondbacks' 840 runs pace baseball by a wide margin, with the Dodgers in second at 788. Home games at Chase Field obviously help that total, but the Diamondbacks still rank third overall with a wRC+ of 114 this season.
They are currently missing just Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from the lineup, and will provide a very tough matchup for Rea as a result. Since July 1, the Diamondbacks rank first in baseball with a wRC+ of 134 against right-handed pitchers, with the Yankees being the next closest in that span at 119.
Brewers Betting Preview: Colin Rea Has Regressed
Rea's surprising level of excellence early on this season was a key reason the Brewers were able to run away with what was projected to be a competitive division. He has fallen apart in the season's back half though, and was used in relief last time out versus Philadelphia.
The plan could be to convert Rea to a reliever moving forward, and he may not pitch through the lineup more than once in this matchup.
Over his last 34 1/3 IP, Rea holds an ERA of 6.82 and an xFIP of 4.84. He's struck out just 16.4% of batters in that span, and allowed a batting average of .306 (.280 expected).
Diamondbacks-Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Early on in the season, Rea appeared to be a regression candidate based on his lowly underlying numbers, but his horrid recent results seem to go beyond suffering through more average luck on balls in play. Rea has been getting crushed by all competition of late, and is now forced to face the league's best offense.
Gallen, meanwhile, has been trending into better form of late, and offers a significant pitching advantage over Rea prior to the Brewers' bullpen taking over.
The Brewers are 44-31 at American Family Field this season, and Rea holds a 3.78 ERA in 83 1/3 innings at home thus far. Those two statistics oversell their chances of winning this matchup though, and I think that the Diamondbacks deserve to be more favored than the current number of -122.
Any price better than -140 is worthy of a bet on the Diamondbacks to win, and I will also be keeping my eye out for prices on Gallen to record a win.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-122 via DraftKings | Play to -140)
Moneyline
I'll be making a play on the Diamondbacks moneyline on Friday.
The Diamondbacks are 43-35 on the road, and 49-29 as a favorite. They are 23-14 after a road win this season — second-best ROI in MLB. The Diamondbacks are 16-10 in Gallen's starts this season (8.6% ROI).
The Brewers are 44-31 at home, and 37-29 as an underdog. The Brewers are 17-8 in Colin Rea's starts this season (32.9% ROI).
Over/Under
Totals are 40-34-4 (O/U) when Arizona is on the road this season, and are 87-61-5 (O/U) overall. The over holds a 15.2% ROI in Diamondbacks games this season (highest in MLB).
Totals are 37-30-8 (O/U) when Milwaukee is at home this season, and are 77-65-11 (O/U) overall. Totals are 38-24-4 when Milwaukee is an underdog.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Betting Trends
- 38% of the bets and 81% of the money is on the Brewers moneyline
- 79% of the bets and 81% of the money is on the Diamondbacks to cover the run line
- 87% of the bets and 86% of the money is on the over
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 games
- The Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 road games
- The total is 5-5 (O/U) in the Diamondbacks' last 10 games
Brewers Betting Trends
- The Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 games
- The Brewers are 4-6 in their last 10 home games
- The total is 3-6-1 (O/U) in the Brewers' last 10 games
Diamondbacks-Brewers Weather Forecast
