The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, July 9. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn and MLB.TV.
The Braves are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Picks
- Braves vs Pirates Pick: Under 9
My Braves vs Pirates best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Pirates Odds, Spread, Line
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +139 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -168 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
- Braves vs Pirates Moneyline: Braves ML -110, Pirates ML -110
- Braves vs Pirates Over/Under: 9.5
- Braves vs Pirates Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+139), Pirates +1.5 (-168)
Braves vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Bryce Elder (RHP, ATL) | Stat | Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.01 / 3.61 | ERA / xERA | 5.02 / 5.38 |
| 3.99 / 4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39 / 4.54 |
| 12.8% | K-BB% | 9.6% |
| 42.7% | GB% | 38.1% |
| .274 | BABIP | .285 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 104 | Location+ | 102 |
Braves vs Pirates Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals based on perceived offensive strength, yet these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution, creating a profitable edge on the Under.
Braves vs Pirates MLB Pick
While these two starting pitchers won’t blow you away, both are very competent and even slightly underrated.
Despite diminished stuff, Elder is on pace for career-best earned run indicators (3.61 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, 4.81 botERA). He’s upped his four-seam usage this season while introducing a cutter, and it seems to be working.
Keller is having a tough year, but much of that has been due to his super-low 64% strand rate. His 5.02 ERA should start to regress toward his 4.24 botERA in the second half.
The Braves have a very good lineup against righties, but the Pirates project as a below-average one against righties. Atlanta also has an elite bullpen, so I expect very little scoring from the Pittsburgh side today.
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Pick: Under 9
