The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres battle on Friday, March 28 at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports South, Padres.TV, FanDuel Sports Southeast and Gray TV.
The Padres took care of business on Opening Day against the Braves in a come-from-behind effort. Now, the Braves will quickly try to rebound and send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound. Dylan Cease will oppose him.
Find my Braves vs Padres parlay picks for Thursday, March 28, below.
Braves vs Padres Prediction, Parlay Picks
Lopez had a strong 2024 season, but his velocity dip in Spring Training is causing concern for his outlook for 2025. Meanwhile, Cease had a strong season, compiling 224 strikeouts over 189 innings.
The Braves are a short underdog, with a lot of sharp money coming in on the Padres. The total for the contest is 7.5, with 93% of the tickets on the over as of Friday morning.
I compiled a three-leg SGP for tonight's ballgame, which pays out at +525 on DraftKings. These parlays are long shots for a reason, so I suggest using a quarter of your typical unit size for these wagers. Here are the legs:
- Dylan Cease Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
- Luis Arraez Over 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +525 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dylan Cease Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
The Braves struck out the eighth-most in Major League Baseball last season, then added Bryan De La Cruz (27% K-Rate in 2024) to their lineup. It's always tricky attacking strikeout props early in the season as managers tend to be careful with their starters right after Spring Training.
However, there are no weather concerns in San Diego that could negatively affect Cease, and I personally think this prop line is too low. In his career, Cease has struck out these Braves hitters in over 30% of their plate appearances.
Cease had strikeout, whiff and chase rates all above 30% last season, which bodes well for tonight's matchup. This is an excellent spot for Cease to start the 2025 campaign on a strong note.
Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Lopez was one of my least favorite starting pitchers in baseball last season simply because he was impossible to figure out. His metrics suggested he was due for massive regression throughout the season, but it never came to fruition.
But, there are even more worrisome factors for Lopez this season. Lopez's velocity was notably down throughout Spring Training, a big red flag.
Lopez could need additional time to ramp up, or an underlying injury may loom. I worry about his performance tonight because of the latter.
He had a strong 27% strikeout rate in 2024, but many of his other metrics, such as his walk rate, suggested he was playing with fire.
Tonight, he draws the Padres, who struck out the least in 2024. Lopez is a huge question mark and I wouldn't be surprised to see him on a short leash.
Luis Arraez 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Arraez draws a dream matchup against Lopez. In his career, Arraez is 11-for-26 with two extra-base hits against him.
Arraez had an impeccable square-up percentage in 2024, finishing the season with a 43.4% rate. That means he made excellent contact on over 43% of the balls he put into play.
You will always have a chance to clear this prop with Arraez, who only stuck out in 4% of his plate appearances last season. He also only had a 7% whiff rate, which is outstanding.
Arraez has always been an outstanding contact hitter and has an excellent chance to rack up at least one extra-base hit or a notch couple of knocks before the night's end.
It's too good of a matchup to pass up at plus money, so I will go with Arraez.
