The Washington Nationals host the Boston Red Sox on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 11:05 a.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
It will be a quick turnaround for the Nationals after playing last night before an early first pitch on Friday morning. Boston had a day off on Thursday following a series win against Cincinnati. It has won just three of its last 11 games.
Read our Red Sox vs Nationals prediction and MLB pick below.
My Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Nationals Picks: Washington Nationals -102 (Play to -115)
My Red Sox vs Nationals best bet is Nationals moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Nationals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -116 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -102 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Lucas Giolito (RHP) | Stat | Michael Soroka (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.99 / 4.97 | ERA /xERA | 4.70 / 3.05 |
| 4.05 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 4.34 / 3.76 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 20.2% |
| 37.7% | GB% | 45.5% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Mike Ianniello’s Red Sox vs Nationals Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Giolito's Dialed In
Lucas Giolito is finally settling into a groove after a terrible start to his tenure in Boston. Giolito missed the entire 2024 season with elbow surgery and really struggled in his return early this year. The right-hander had a 7.08 ERA after four starts but has started to dial it in.
Over his last seven outings, Giolito has a 2.35 ERA. He has allowed a total of two earned runs across his last four starts and has gone at least six innings in each. His velocity is back to where it was pre-injury. He has 25 strikeouts in 26 innings this month.
The Red Sox offense has been in disarray ever since they traded their best hitter. Since the Devers trade, Boston ranks 19th in wRC+ and has the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league.
It is time for the youth movement in Boston, but it is going to take time. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are both hitting below .215, and Kristian Campbell has slowed down after a solid start. Even Jarren Duran has been very disappointing after his breakout last year.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Soroka's Long Journey
It has been a strange career for 27-year-old Michael Soroka. He was a first-round pick by the Braves, played in the All-Star Futures Game as a prospect, and made the All-Star Game in his second MLB season. But a 2021 Achilles injury has set his career back. He missed two entire seasons and was sent to the minors in 2023.
Soroka has struggled across the last three seasons, currently holding a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts this year. He has allowed at least three runs in eight starts this year, but the results could be better. Soroka’s 3.05 xERA is more than a run and a half below his current mark.
As much as the Nationals have been towards the bottom of the standings, the offense actually has some bright spots. They are above average in scoring and do two things very well. They have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in the league and do a great job at putting the ball in play. When they do reach base safely, they are sixth in stolen bases.
Washington does not hit for a ton of power, but it does get it from ascending superstar James Wood. The 22-year-old outfielder ranks fifth in the entire league with a .955 OPS and has hit 23 home runs. Wood and CJ Abrams make up one of the most fun young duos in the league.
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
As good as Giolito has been over the last month, Soroka has a run like that coming for him soon. He has a 3.05 xERA on the season, more than a full run and a half lower than his current 4.70 ERA.
He ranks in the top 20% of the league in xERA, xBA, and barrel rate allowed. In June, Soroka struck out 36 batters in 28 1/3 innings. His slurve has been disgusting this season, generating a 44.4% strikeout rate and allowing opponents to hit just .122 against it.
Washington has a big advantage on offense right now. Since June 15, with the Red Sox trading Devers, Boston ranks 19th in wRC+ and the Nationals rank 11th. Washington is top 10 in wOBA over that stretch and top five in runs. The Nationals are top five in strikeout rate and the Red Sox are bottom five.
Even with Boston having the rest advantage, the Nationals have the advantage on offense and should have the advantage in starting pitching. Play Washington at home on Friday morning.
Pick: Nationals -102 (Play to -115)
Moneyline
I'm on the Nationals moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no bet on the game spread.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the game total.
