The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on July 10, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Cubs are -110 on the moneyline and priced at +138 to cover the run line (-1.5). The Reds are -106 on the moneyline and -166 to cover +1.5 runs. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Reds Prediction
- Cubs vs Reds Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (-118, FanDuel; Play to -125)
My Cubs vs Reds best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -110 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -106 |
- Cubs vs Reds moneyline: Cubs -110, Reds -106
- Cubs vs Reds over/under: 9.5 (-104o/-118u)
- Cubs vs Reds spread: Cubs -1.5 (+138), Reds +1.5 (-166)
Cubs vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.28/3.67 | ERA / xERA | 21.60/10.31 |
| 4.67/3.90 | FIP / xFIP | 6.41/3.89 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 15.0% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 22.2% |
| .249 | BABIP | .750 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 109 | Location+ | 83 |
Cubs vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
It's been a fairly underwhelming season for Shota Imanaga in terms of results, as he's posted a 4.28 ERA and a 5-7 record across 103 innings. However, his underlying metrics remain encouraging, with a 3.67 xERA and a 3.90 xFIP, and he's begun to see those stronger peripherals translate into better results over his recent starts.
Across his last five starts (27 IP), Imanaga has pitched to an ERA of 3.00. In those outings, he holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.8% and has reduced his walk rate to a more livable 6.5% while throwing first-pitch strikes 67.3% of the time. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 102 in that span and has been hard-hit just 20.3% throughout the last five starts.
Defensively, the Cubs have been excellent once again this season, as they rank among the league leaders in virtually every advanced defensive metric, including Outs Above Average, Fielding Run Value, and Defensive Runs Saved, led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner.
Following their painful 10-game losing skid in late May, it's been smooth sailing for the Cubs offensively, who have hit to a wRC+ of 120 since June 1st. They have been extremely hard on left-handed pitching in that span but have been much less effective versus righties in hitting to a wRC+ of 112.
Seiya Suzuki left Thursday's game with cramps, but it seems unlikely that it will be an issue that causes him to miss Friday's matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
After missing most of the first half following Spring Training surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow, Hunter Greene could provide a massive boost to the Reds' struggling rotation down the stretch. Greene made his season debut last Saturday versus the Orioles, and it ultimately became a disaster, as he recorded just ten outs while being charged with eight earned runs.
Though Greene's command was awful, his electric stuff did appear to be on par with what we are used to seeing. He held an average fastball velocity of 98.9 and a Stuff+ rating of 113. His rehab starts prior to his season debut were also encouraging, as he allowed just five hits and zero earned runs across 14 and 1/3 innings.
After struggling to find consistency in his first two MLB campaigns, Greene put it all together in the 2025 and 2026 seasons in pitching to an ERA of 2.75 across 258 innings.
Since June 1st, the Reds have hit to a wRC+ of 107 versus left-handed pitching. They have struck out 24.3% of the time in that span but have generated a lot of hard contact (40.4% hard-hit rate).
Cubs vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
There is some volatility here surrounding Greene entering this matchup, as there are understandably questions after his disastrous season debut.
His underlying pitch metrics were largely in line with what he's typically offered though, and one rough outing is not enough to conclude that one of the game's best young pitchers is poised for an extended stretch of struggles.
Imanaga enters this matchup in a strong run of form and has done a better job of limiting walks and hard contact of late, while still generating an elite chase rate.
While Great American Ball Park remains one of the league's better run-scoring environments, a total of 9.5 appears pretty high given the upside of both starters. At -118 or better, there looks to be value in backing this matchup to feature under 9.5 runs.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs -118 (FanDuel, Play to -125)
