The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cleveland Guardians on May 23, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Phillies are favored by -198 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +166 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Phillies Prediction
- Guardians vs Phillies Pick: Guardians ML (+166)
My Guardians vs Phillies best bet is on Cleveland to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Phillies Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 7 -118o / -104u | +166 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 7 -118o / -104u | -198 |
- Guardians vs Phillies moneyline: Guardians +166, Phillies -198
- Guardians vs Phillies over/under: 7 (-118o / -104u)
- Guardians vs Phillies spread: Guardians +1.5 (-137), Phillies -1.5 (+114)
Guardians vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 5.16 / 4.95 | ERA / xERA | 1.99 / 3.40 |
| 4.99 / 4.46 | FIP / xFIP | 2.37 / 3.02 |
| 10.0 | K-BB% | 19.2 |
| 43.6 | GB% | 50.0 |
| .316 | BABIP | .247 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 100 | Location+ | 106 |
Guardians vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Zack Wheeler has returned from a major injury as his same old stellar self through five starts (3.20 SIERA/3.40 xERA/19.2 K-BB%) and was even up to 96.3 mph in his last start (96.1 mph avg last season).
Meanwhile, Slade Cecconi has also been his normal, not-so-stellar self (4.45 SIERA/4.97 xERA/10 K-BB%).
There’s no question who the far superior starting pitcher is here. I’m questioning the other elements of this game, though.
While both offenses maintain a sub-95 wRC+ vs RHP this season, the projected Philly lineup does have a 114 wRC+ against them since last season and has picked it up recently since some sort of event happened in their organization. I can’t remember.
Anyway, the projected nine own a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days in comparison to Cleveland’s 101 wRC+ both over the last 30 days and against RHP since last season.
That’s about the size of the edge I’m giving the Philadelphia offense, too. Subtle and minor. Travis Bazzana (133 wRC+ L30 days) has both significantly improved this offense and turned the Guardians into a formidable lineup, though Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan have not been up to par.
Still, those are two home team edges to start.
Ironically, both DeLauter (-1 Fielding Run Value) and Bazzana (-2) have been defensive deficits, but are also the only negative FRVs in the Cleveland lineup, which projects a sizeable 18 FRV edge over its opponent on Saturday.
Lastly, bullpens have been comparable with similar indicators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) over the last month. In fact, the Phillies boast the fifth-best bullpen over the last 30 days by those metrics, while the Guardians are only two spots behind, separated by less than one-tenth of a run.
Neither pen has been worked hard this week, and both should have their full complement of arms available.
When I see a large line, as we have here (CLE +172 full game, +194 F5), I assume that the heavy favorite has at least one massive edge, which the Phillies do here in Zack Wheeler.
However, when they don’t pull away in any other area, and the dog also has a significant edge in one of the other aspects (offense, defense, bullpen, and to a lesser extent, base running), I tend to consider the upset potential.
While I’m very happy to see Wheeler back and pitching tremendously, I don’t expect a pitcher coming back from such an injury and a week away from his 36th birthday to continue pitching the best baseball of his career.
In fact, projections are more in the mid-to-lower threes rather than barely three that his estimators indicate so far (3.03 xFIP/2.37 FIP).
Guardians vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m still giving Wheeler a full run edge here, but as the Million Dollar Man used to say, “Everybody’s got a price”, and I believe the Guardians have hit theirs here.
There's also rain in the forecast for Philadelphia on Saturday. Any sort of disruption to the starting pitchers or added variance generally favors the underdog.
It’s not a comfortable bet by any means, and you go into it knowing you'll lose more often than you'll win. I have the F5 and full game lines rated at nearly the same edge, both of which seem just a bit too strong.
I wouldn’t play F5 past +185 or a full game past +160.
Pick: Guardians (+166, FanDuel)
