The Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado Rockies on May 9, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on COLR.
The Phillies are favored by -180 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are +152 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rockies vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rockies vs Phillies Prediction
- Rockies vs Phillies Pick: Rockies ML (+145 or Better)
My Rockies vs Phillies best bet is on Colorado to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Phillies Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +152 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
- Rockies vs Phillies moneyline: Rockies +152, Phillies -180
- Rockies vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Rockies vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+116), Rockies +1.5 (-140)
Rockies vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) | Stat | Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 5.04 / 4.59 | ERA / xERA | 5.06 / 4.41 |
| 4.73 / 4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.12 / 3.56 |
| 14.4% | K-BB% | 16.8% |
| 49.3% | GB% | 39.8% |
| .310 | BABIP | .343 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 104 | Location+ | 96 |
Rockies vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Aaron Nola is coming off six shutout innings in Miami, but has only one other start allowing less than three runs.
Ironically, it was against these Rockies at Coors, but the difference between Nola’s high ERAs in the past and this year is that in 2026, he’s running an underlying career worst 4.42 xERA with the lowest ground ball rate of his career (39.8%) and worst K-BB (16.8%) since his rookie season.
Another clear indicator of decline is Nola’s career-worst pitch modeling grades (4.33 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+).
I realize I just mentioned Coors as one of the rare spots where Nola has succeeded this year, but this Colorado offense has shown a bit more spunk than it has in recent seasons, especially against RHP (98 wRC+, projected LU 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, 108 wRC+ L30 days overall).
I also realize this is Kyle Freeland on the other side, but his numbers aren’t far off Nola’s this year. His SIERA is only 0.14 runs worse, and his xERA is only 0.18 runs worse.
Additionally, we’re getting road Freeland, where opponents’ wOBA against him is historically 19 points lower than at Coors. Kyle Freeland has been essentially a league-average pitcher away from Coors in recent seasons.
The Phillies have also struggled to the tune of just a 73 wRC+ vs LHP this season.
That should positively regress. They aren't that bad, but there are enough warning signs for a large favorite, and we haven’t even gotten into Colorado playing the better defense.
Rockies vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
The Phillies do have the better bullpen, but they haven’t been great, and the full game price is so much better than F5 that it’s worth the risk.
Pick: Rockies ML (+145 or Better)
