The Philadelphia Phillies (4-1) go for a three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies (1-4) on Thursday, April 3. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBCSP, Rockies.TV and can also be streamed on MLB.TV.
The Phillies have handled business in this series, outscoring the Rockies 11-2 over the first two games. Notably, the Phillies have covered the run line (-1.5) in each of their four wins this season.
Find my Rockies vs Phillies prediction and pick for the Thursday finale below.
My Rockies vs Phillies Prediction
- Rockies vs Phillies Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Rockies vs Phillies best bet is Over 9.5, primarily due to the starting pitching matchup. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Phillies Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | +185 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | -225 |
Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Phillies Preview
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Fade Senzatela
The Colorado Rockies hand the ball to right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who has yet to quite figure it out at this level. Through nine seasons, Senzatela possesses a fade-worthy 4.87 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
He only made three starts last season, but they went about as poorly as possible. Senzatela posted a 6.57 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP — and his underlying metrics were somehow even worse.
The right-hander posted a 9.08 xERA and a .318 xBA. Senzatela escaped his first 2025 start without allowing a run, which was nothing short of a miracle and presents us with a good sell-high opportunity Thursday.
Despite not allowing a run through nearly five innings, Senzatela produced a 23.17 xERA and a .484 xBA. Additionally, he possesses an 0-2 record through six appearances against the Philadelphia Phillies with a 4.40 ERA.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Will Walker's Struggles Continue?
On the other hand, Philadelphia is likely to have pitching issues of its own. Right-hander Taijuan Walker is slated to make his first start of the campaign and is coming off the worst year of his career.
In 2024, Walker posted a 3-7 record through 19 games with a 7.10 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Analytically, he was perhaps the worst starting pitcher in baseball.
The right-hander finished in the first percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. With these metrics in mind, there is little optimism for a bounce-back season in 2025.
The good news for Walker is that he should receive plenty of run support. This season, the Phillies rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Rockies vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Philadelphia's success at the dish is likely to continue against Senzatela. Through 67 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Phillies roster boasts a .345 BA, a .586 SLG and a .415 wOBA.
Following Senzatela is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Last season, the Rockies' relief staff ranked in the bottom three of the league in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
Colorado certainly doesn't possess the strongest lineup, but it can still tee off on Walker. Through 41 combined plate appearances against Walker, this current Rockies roster sports a .368 BA, a .526 SLG and a .406 wOBA.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Philadelphia, but don't want to lay -210 with Walker.
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Phillies to cover, but don't want to bet on them for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 9.5 at +100.
Rockies vs Phillies Betting Trends
