The Atlanta Braves host the Detroit Tigers on April 28, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Braves are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tigers vs Braves Prediction
- Tigers vs Braves Pick: Lean Tigers F5 (+105 or better)
My Tigers vs Braves best bet is on Detroit to win in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Braves Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 9 -120o / -102u | +106 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 9 -120o / -102u | -124 |
- Tigers vs Braves moneyline: Tigers +106, Braves -124
- Tigers vs Braves over/under: 9 (-120o / -102u)
- Tigers vs Braves spread: Tigers +1.5 (-210), Braves -1.5 (+172)
Tigers vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | LHP Martin Perez (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.51/3.22 | ERA / xERA | 2.70/4.59 |
| 2.95/3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.63/4.44 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 8.8% |
| 38.4% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .292 | BABIP | .197 |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Tigers vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
Despite coming off his best major league season (16.4 K-BB%, 3.96 SIERA, 3.66 xERA), there was some concern when Casey Mize dropped a mph in velocity this spring (94.6 mph to 93.6) and has fallen even further to 93.3 in five starts to start the season with no game averaging above 94.0 mph yet.
However, so far he has shirked those concerns by further improving to an 18.8 K-BB%, 3.54 SIERA and 3.21 xERA.
Mize is a single out away from four quality starts in five attempts and has allowed a total of three runs over those four starts. The only difficult outing he’s had was a cold one in Minnesota his second time out.
While he may never become the elite pitcher Detroit fans expected him to be when drafted, a solid number three on a good team is an above average pitcher most teams would love to have in their rotation.
Essentially ditching his slurve this year (3.8% from 14.3%), Mize has operated with more sliders (15.3% to 22.8%), which is still lower than his pre-2025 rate at 27.8%. (2022-24).
If there is any cause for concern, it’s in the pitch modeling. The slider has declined in pure stuff, but is being better located earning 41 PitchingBot and 75 Stuff+ marks. Those increase to 56 and 109 grades when command/location is added into the mix.
However, the fastball (33.5%, 50 PB, 93 P+) and splitter (28.9%, 47 PB, 83 P+) have both declined overall, especially the latter, resulting in overall deteriorations to a 4.75 Bot ERA and 93 Pitching+.
For now it’s working, but he’ll be visiting the third best offense in the league (121 wRC+) and second best against RHP (121). The Braves also have a 124 wRC+ at home this year, while the projected lineup has averaged a 116 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, along with a 122 wRC+ overall this season.
The Braves are also the top fastball hitting team (1.51 wFA/C), a top five splitter hitting team (1.41 wFS/C – though with sample size issues) and top 10 slider hitting offense (-0.18) this year, though no single batter stands out as a particularly difficult matchup against what Mize likes to throw.
Mize has been slightly below average at holding runners this year (-2 Net Bases Prevented), but with just one of six catchers to have already reached 2 Catcher’s CS Above Average likely behind the plate in Dillon Dingler, an excellent defensive catcher overall too (+3 FRV with +2 Framing Runs in 2026).
The Braves do not have a single above average base runner in their lineup (0 above 0 BRR). Their 14 stolen bases are just 26th in the league, despite pilfering base stealing guru and first base coach Antoan Richardson from the Mets this offseason.
Defensively, the Tigers have been a mess aside from Dingler, accumulating a league worst -12 Runs Prevented and -14 OAA. In fact, Gleyber Torres (1) is the only other projected Tiger with a positive FRV this year.
The Tiger bullpen has been bottom third of the league with a 4.40 FIP, 4.35 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA combinationt his year, but should be well rested after the off day on Monday.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The last couple of times Martin Perez was listed to start for the Braves, he was replaced by a pair of highly regarded prospects (Didier Fuentes & JR Ritchie), so be on alert for more shenanigans, though I’m not sure Atlanta has any big pitching prospects left.
His only work over the last 10 days has been three innings of two run ball in Washington on the 22nd, though he did strike out four of 12 without a walk.
You may wonder how a pitcher with a career 4.74 SIERA and 4.88 xERA, whom RHBs have pummeled for a .343 wOBA has stuck around so long, never mind starting for one of the best teams in baseball this year and the answer is extremely clear: blackmail.
Uhm…I mean attrition.
Yes, pitcher injuries.
Perez was chosen to make this start instead of the struggling Reynaldo Lopez, but will likely cede this spot to the returning Spencer Strider after Tuesday.
Without a single estimators below 4.43 (xFIP) this season, which includes his 4.87 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+), it’s not difficult to see why he’s not long for this rotation and there’s not much reason to dive any deeper into his profile.
The Tigers are no better than middle of the league against any of the three pitches (cutter, sinker, changeup) Perez throws most, but they do have a 104 wRC+ vs LHP this year with the projected lineup at 129 vs southpaws since last season and 117 overall this year.
Kevin McGonigle and Jahmai Jones have both hit sinkers and cutters well in small samples, but are the only two projected Tigers with strong pitch run values against Perez’s arsenal.
When it comes to holding runners, Perez has been about average (1 NBP), just as Drake Baldwin has been in throwing them out (-1 CSAA).
The Tigers are a good base running team (proj. LU 3 BRR), but that’s almost entirely McGonigle (3 BRR) with Matt Vierling (1) and Riley Green (1) the only other positive base runners.
Detroit is one of only four teams with fewer stolen bases (9) than Atlanta.
To put it into perspective, adding both teams’ stolen base totals together wouldn’t put them inside the top 10. Parker Meadows (3) is the only Tiger other than McGonigle (2) with more than one SB and he’s on the IL.
The Atlanta defense has been third best in the league (7 RP, 9 OAA), while the projected lineup combines for 5 FRV, with Matt Olson (3), Mauricio Dubon (2) and Ozzie Albies (1) as the positive contributors.
Closer Raisel Iglesias is on the IL, but the Braves made a sharp signing in Robert Suarez, their interim closer, for a bullpen with the third best estimators in the league (3.26 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA). They also had Monday off.
Tigers vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
The latest Statcast (3 year rolling) Park Factors have Truist Park in Atlanta a perfectly neutral run scoring environment (100 PRF), as well as a neutral power environment for LHBs (100 PHRF), while suppressing RHB home runs (93).
The forecast for today calls for temps in the mid-70s with a light breeze in from right, but also a near 50% chance of rain. This has historically led to just a slight reduction in run scoring, but keep in mind that these forecasts can and often due change overnight.
We do not yet have an umpiring assignment for the first game of this series.
I make Casey Mize about a run better than Martin Perez and Detroit’s surprising prowess against LHP since last season (four projected batters 138+ wRC+ vs LHP) puts the offense nearly on par with Atlanta’s here.
The Tigers also have the base running edge, which will likely show up more in extra bases taken than stolen bases.
Where Atlanta has clear advantages are defensively and in the bullpen, even without Iglesias.
This puts me in line with the market for the full game, which I have at near even, very slightly favoring the home team.
I am less than one-third of a run removed from the nine run game total too.
I have Perez right around his 3.5 strikeout prop and Mize a bit higher than his 4.5 number, but don’t consider it actionable at -132.
The one area where I can see some daylight is the F5 line. Before we get bullpens involved, I make the Tigers small favorites where the best line is currently even money (bet365). For now, it’s just a lean, where I would need something just a bit higher (+105) to consider it playable.
Considering it’s currently at -112 on FanDuel, I’m not optimistic it will get there, but will post on the app if I see that it does.
Pick: Lean Tigers F5 (+105 or better)
