The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSDET.
Reese Olson will get the start for the Tigers while Slade Cecconi will start for the struggling Guardians.
Continue below for my Guardians vs Tigers prediction and moneyline pick.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Moneyline Pick
- Tigers vs Guardians Picks: Tigers ML (-125)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on the Tigers to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds, Spread
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Reese Olson (DET) | Stat | RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.96/ 3.54 | ERA /xERA | 3.64/ 5.24 |
| 2.95/ 3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 4.40/ 4.09 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 15.6% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 37.0% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 108 |
Tigers vs Guardians Preview, Prediction
Tigers Betting Preview
The Detroit Tigers came to Washington having won five out of their last seven series. They looked well on their way to winning another after they cruised to an 11-2 victory in game one of the doubleheader on Wednesday. However, the Nationals stormed back with 20 runs in the final two games to claim the series.
In June, the Tigers had a 4.50 bullpen ERA. That number will not be going down to start July as they allowed 11 runs (10 earned) against the Nationals. Manager A.J. Hinch asks a lot of his bullpen with his use of openers. The Tigers should get a more traditional start tonight when Reese Olson makes his return to Detroit's rotation.
Olson is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season. The 25-year-old has been out since mid-May due to inflammation in his right ring finger. Through three rehab starts, Olson has worked up to 74 pitches, so he may be able to work five innings tonight.
The Tigers will be making their first trip to Cleveland since last year's Game 5 ALDS loss. The Guardians took three of four in Detroit in May. Riley Greene did not have a hit in that series and saw his hitting streak come to an end last night. However, he has been one of the league's hottest hitters of late.
Over the last month, Greene is slashing .330/.376/.650 with eight doubles, eight home runs, and 29 runs batted in. He is top 10 in the MLB in both home runs (21) and RBI (69) this season. For his efforts, he is one of three Tigers named as an All-Star starter for the American League along with Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez.
Torres is hitting .300 on the nose over the last month. He has recorded two or more hits + runs + runs batted in six times in his last seven games.
Guardians Betting Preview
Cleveland's rotation was sent into flux when yesterday's scheduled starter Luis Ortiz was placed on administrative leave after two he threw last month were flagged for betting integrity. This came after they got just four innings from Tanner Bibee in Wednesday's loss to the Cubs.
Making his first appearance since May, Joey Cantillo stepped up with 3 and 1/3 scoreless innings yesterday. Cleveland did not allow a run until the 10th inning, but it still had to use five pitchers yesterday. How manager Stephen Vogt handles his bullpen will be something to monitor this weekend.
Yesterday's strong pitching outing was not enough as the Guardians fell 1-o to the Cubs. It was their seventh consecutive loss and they are five games below .500 and 12.5 games back of the Tigers. That coincides with now seven-time All-Star Jose Ramirez being hit on the hand by Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
Ramirez missed just one game, but he is 0-for-20 since he returned to the lineup. The Guardians are hitting just .154 as a team during their losing streak.
Tonight, Vogt will turn to Slade Cecconi to snap the skid. If runs are at a premium, Cleveland will need Cecconi to repeat his last outing against Detroit when he allowed one run in six innings while striking out six in a 3-1 Guardians victory. He has done solid work this season with a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. He lowered that mark to 2.70 in June.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
Dating back to last season, Cleveland has had Detroit's number, winning seven of the last 10 meetings. However, the Tigers are playing better entering this series, winning six of their last 10 games while the Guardians have dropped eight of their last 10 games.
With Olson and Cecconi getting the starts, this may be a well-pitched game. However, I trust the Tigers offense to scratch across a few runs much more than Cleveland right now. If Ramirez cannot find his swing tonight and be the force he has become in the middle of Cleveland's lineup, Cleveland's losing streak will extend to eight tonight.
Pick: Tigers ML (-125, BetMGM)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like Tigers Moneyline here.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm staying away from run line bets today.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game totals.
