The Chicago Cubs host the Houston Astros on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Cubs are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by +158 on the run line. The Astros are +120 on the moneyline and -194 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Cubs Prediction
- Astros vs Cubs Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
My Astros vs Cubs best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Cubs Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | +120 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -142 |
- Astros vs Cubs moneyline: Astros +120, Cubs -142
- Astros vs Cubs over/under: 7.5 (+100o / -122u)
- Astros vs Cubs spread: Astros +1.5 (-194), Cubs -1.5 (+158)
Astros vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.8 |
| 1.50 / 4.91 | ERA / xERA | 4.97 / 5.10 |
| 3.61 / 4.69 | FIP / xFIP | 6.68 / 4.71 |
| 9.2% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 37.4% | GB% | 34.5% |
| .231 | BABIP | .211 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 92 | Location+ | 101 |
Astros vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Believe Only Half of What You See
For the Astros, they send Spencer Arrighetti to the bump. He sports an elite 1.50 ERA with a mediocre 1.19 WHIP this year with a 5-1 record.
In other words, 1995 baseball analysts would be drooling over this guy.
But it's 2026, and I am a projection bro. The reason I got into this industry was that I like numbers, and let me tell you… that ERA seems fake.
His SIERA is 4.67, xFIP is 4.69, has a 23% K% and a 13.8% BB%. Not only that, his BABIP is .231, with a strand rate of 85.5% and his HR/FB is 2.7%.
I'd put those numbers in all caps if that were a thing you could do.
Arrighetti is among the fakest of good pitchers this year.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Taillon is Vulnerable
On the other side for the Cubs is Jameson Taillon, who has made a nice career for himself after having it ravaged by injuries early on.
This guy dealt with both Tommy John and cancer, which certainly hurt his career outlook after being selected second overall in the 2010 Draft. But you can't be too mad at 232 big league starts across ten seasons.
This year, he has a 4.97 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, with his K% being up a bit from normal (but only to 20%) and his 11.5% SwStr% and 96 Stuff+ show you that he's just not very hard to hit.
He has had tons of BABIP luck (.211) but not so much on the HR/FB front at 26%. Maybe he'll be helped in that regard by the winds today, but he's given up 16 homers this year to lead the league (by four).
He has nothing to offer left-handed hitters, surrendering a 17.6% Brl% and a ridiculous .406 xwOBA to lefties this year. Just getting pounded time after time.
So we like the fly ball hitting lefties on the Astros' side.
The problem for Houston is that they only have one of those, and that's Yordan Alvarez.
We'll see what the forecast does to his home run lines, but if it ends up looking like pretty neutral weather, he's a fantastic bet to go yard. You can't dream up a much better spot for a dinger this year than Yordan against Taillon.
Astros vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
With today's game featuring Arrighetti and Taillon on the bump, I was stunned to find out that this over/under was 7.5.
To me, these days, the most important thing when betting on games at Wrigley is the wind.
These totals have fluctuated wildly this year. We've seen 11.5's, we've seen 6.5's, and it's all because everybody thinks the wind is howling straight out or straight in, as if the players have nothing to say about the run environment.
And I think it's gotten out of control. How much difference could the wind truly make, right? I will grant you, there are certain days there where it's wild. But almost every Wrigley game has some super high or super low total now; it's like the entire pricing algorithm just looks at what people are likely to do because of the weather.
Maybe you're a more responsible bettor who really believes in this Wrigley winds stuff. I believe in it to a point. I just think that the books have taken advantage of it. People know about the wind stuff, and they think they're being sharp by betting according to it.
So I'm always looking to take the other side. And the over 7.5 or Arrighetti vs. Taillon just seems like such a good bet. I'm locking that in early.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100, FanDuel), Yordan Alvarez Home Run (Pending Weather — +382 on DraftKings)
