The Kansas City Royals pulled off the upset over the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series. First pitch for Wild Card Game 2 on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at Camden Yards is scheduled for 4:38 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN and can be also streamed on FUBO and MLB.TV.
The latest Royals vs Orioles odds have the Orioles as -150 moneyline favorites (they opened -142) and the Royals as +125 underdogs. The over/under has a consensus total of 7.5 (-105o / -115u). The O's are +150 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Royals are -185 to cover the spread (+1.5).
There wasn't too much offense in Tuesday’s 1-0 thriller — the Royals triumphed, but Wednesday could be a bit different. Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles against Kansas City's Seth Lugo in this potential elimination game for Baltimore.
I think Baltimore has an edge and will force a decisive Game 3 — let's get to my Royals vs Orioles prediction and moneyline pick for Game 2 on Wednesday.
Royals vs Orioles Game 2 Prediction
- Royals vs Orioles Game 2 pick: Orioles Moneyline (-140 | Play to -160)
My Orioles vs Royals best bet for Game 2 is on the Orioles moneyline, where I see value at -140. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Odds, Predictions
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -185 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +150 |
- Royals vs Orioles Moneyline: Royals +125, Orioles -150
- Royals vs Orioles Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Royals vs Orioles Spread: Royals +1.5 (-185), Orioles -1.5 (-150)
Wild Card Game 2 Probable Starters
| RHP Seth Lugo (KC) | Stat | RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-9 | W-L | 10-9 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.00/3.72 | ERA /xERA | 3.59/3.62 |
| 3.25/3.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/3.81 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 44.2% | GB% | 42.7% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Royals vs Orioles Game 2 Previews
Royals Betting Preview
Lugo has a 3.00 ERA and a 3.72 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.5 mph and he has a Hard-Hit Rate in the 47th percentile. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 62nd percentile and he has a walk rate under 6%.
Like Eflin, Lugo won't produce many strikeouts, as his strikeout rate is only 21.7%. He had a rocky August and stabilized in September. However, this Baltimore lineup has more in the tank than they displayed on Tuesday.
The Royals had a 75 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate against righties in the final month of the regular season. They have only four bats with a .320+ xwOBA, and Bobby Witt Jr. usually carries the offense.
The Royals’ bullpen had a 3.25 xFIP, a 7.7% walk rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate from September 1 through the end of the regular season.
Orioles Betting Preview
Eflin has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.62 xFIP. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.1 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 73rd percentile. His ground-ball rate is above average and his strikeout rate may be below 20%, but he's only walking 3.5% of batters.
The O’s lineup is much stronger against righties. In the final month of the regular season, Baltimore held a 109 wRC+, a 9.1% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate against righties. The Orioles have seven active bats on the playoff roster eclipsing a .320 xwOBA, so virtually anyone they put up against Lugo can do damage. Thus, he could be leaving the game early.
In relief, the Orioles have a 3.76 xFIP, a 9.3% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate. Like the Royals, they have multiple relievers who can enter the game upon Eflin’s exit. However, since Eflin rarely issues walks, can keep the ball on the ground and doesn't accrue pitches via the strikeout, he could throw deep into this game.
Royals vs Orioles Prediction, Game 2 Moneyline Betting Analysis
The differences in these starters is seemingly negligible, but the Orioles have more depth in their lineup. In relief, Baltimore has enough to contend with the Royals.
Since Eflin could end up throwing deeper into this game, the Orioles could be in a better spot than the Royals’ relief staff. In addition, it doesn't hurt to be at home.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-140) | Play to -155
Moneyline
I'm backing Baltimore on the Royals vs. Orioles moneyline.
Pick: O's Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I won't be betting the Royals vs. Orioles run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
The Royals vs. Orioles over/under is a pass for me.
Pick: Pass
Royals-Orioles Game 2 Information: Channel, Start Time, Date, More
| Location: | Camden Yards |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:38 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN | FUBO | MLB.TV | Sling TV |
Royals-Orioles Game 2 Weather Forecast: Clouds, Little Wind
