The Kansas City Royals (8-11) and Detroit Tigers (10-8) meet in an AL Central clash on Thursday night. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1 and FanDuel Sports Kansas City/Detroit.
Both the Royals and Tigers enter Thursday looking to get back on the track — Kansas City was swept by the New York Yankees while Detroit dropped two of three games to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Find my Royals vs Tigers prediction in my MLB betting preview below.
My Royals vs Tigers Prediction
- Royals vs Tigers picks: Tigers Moneyline (-140; bet to -160)
My Royals vs Tigers best bet is on the Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Tigers Odds, Spread, Prediction, Best Bet
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
- Royals vs Tigers Moneyline: Royals +130, Tigers -155
- Royals vs Tigers Total: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Royals vs Tigers Spread: Royals +1.5 (-170), Tigers -1.5 (+143)
- Royals vs Tigers Best Bet: Tigers ML
Royals vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) | Stat | RHP Reese Olson (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.71 / 4.09 | ERA /xERA | 6.00 / 4.65 |
| 3.61 / 3.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.96 / 3.95 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.67 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 7.5% |
| 50% | GB% | 48.9% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 109 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Royals vs Tigers Preview
Tigers Betting Preview
The Tigers have shown a lot of promise this year.
This is mostly due to them posting a 109 wRC+, which ranks top 10 in MLB. The bats have gone a bit cold, however, scoring one or no runs in three of their last four games, with a nine-run outburst sandwiched in.
I also like that the Tigers are facing a right-hander here.
Detroit ranks eighth in MLB with a 117 wRC+; its lineup against righties is more potent as it allows platoon bat Kerry Carpenter to play. He has a 160 wRC+ versus righties.
Carpenter is one of six Detroit hitters who have a wRC+ over 120 versus right-handers. The most impressive name on the list is Spencer Torkelson.
Many tabbed the former first overall pick as a "bust' after an ugly first couple seasons. But now he has a 168 wRC+ on the best team in the AL Central.
A breakout star last season, Reese Olson has failed to carry over the dominance he showed a year ago thus far. He’s pitching to 6.00 ERA with an elevated 4.80 BB/9.
Don’t fret, Tigers fans. Olson should soon return to his prime form — his 3.95 FIP indicates positive regression.
Royals Betting Preview
The Royals are in the midst of a grueling road stretch. They began with three games in Cleveland, three in New York and are now in Detroit. Kansas City is 1-5 on this road trip thus far.
After the Royals' offense led them to the playoffs last year, this year is a different story.
Kansas City's wRC+ is pretty telling. It has a 67 wRC+, which is the third-worst mark in MLB ahead of the lowly Pirates and Rockies.
The lack of power is really troubling. With 10 home runs, the Royals are tied for last place in MLB.
Four hitters account for eight of the 10 homers, and it's the expected candidates — Salvador Perez (2), Vinnie Pasquantino (2), Bobby Witt Jr (2), and Maikel Garcia (2).
Witt and Garcia are the lone bats with a 100 wRC+ or better; the rest of the lineup is total dead weight, with Kyle Isbel (90) the closest to posting a league-average mark.
Michael Lorenzen takes the ball for the Royals and he's allowed three-plus runs in two of his three starts. The 33-year-old righty isn't flashy, as he posts a 93 Stuff+.
However, Lorenzen knows how to get outs, posting a 3.71 ERA with a 3.61 FIP and 3.60 xFIP. The last time Lorenzen posted an FIP below 4.00 was during his reliever days in 2020.
Royals vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
With the Royals in the middle of an intense road swing and their offense tanking, the play here is Detroit.
The Tigers are -145 favorites (at the time of writing), which is near my threshold of betting on moneylines. If the line jumps to -160 or more, then I don't see enough value.
But at the current number, Detroit is playable — especially if you believe in Reese Olson, like I do.
None of his Statcast numbers jump off the page — besides his ground-ball rate (66th percentile) and barrel rate (85th percentile) — but the Royals offense is a total nightmare.
The lineup advantage is just so extreme that the Tigers should be able to beat the Royals in this series opener.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-145; bet to -160)
Moneyline
As I outlined above, the Tigers moneyline is my bet for this game.
Run Line (Spread)
While I like the Tigers moneyline, I'm not betting on them to cover the spread.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on making a bet on the game total.
