The New York Yankees (8-7) host the Kansas City Royals (8-8) at Yankee Stadium on Monday night in a rematch from last year's MLB playoffs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
After starting the season on fire and garnering all of the headlines, the Yankees' offense has come back down to earth. As a result, they have won just two of their last seven games.
Following a series loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Yankees sit a half-game back in the AL East. Kansas City is also coming off a series loss, bringing its record to .500 through 16 games. New York ended the Royals' season in the ALDS last year with a 3-1 series win, and Kansas City will look to get some revenge here at Yankees Stadium.
Below, you can find my Royals vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction, Picks
- Royals vs Yankees picks: Over 8.5
My Royals vs Yankees best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Lines
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 9 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Royals vs Yankees Projected Pitchers
| RHP Seth Lugo (KC) | Stat | RHP Carlos Carrasco (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.24 / 4.11 | ERA /xERA | 7.71 / 6.07 |
| 3.77 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 6.50 / 4.15 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.63 |
| 7.6% | K-BB% | 13.5% |
| 37% | GB% | 35.9% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 89 | Location+ | 105 |
Royals vs Yankees Betting Preview, Pick
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
Seth Lugo had a tremendous 2024 with the Royals, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA and finishing runner-up in the Cy Young voting. It was a career year for Lugo, and nothing can diminish what he accomplished. However, there are some red flags in his profile. He was able to stave off negative regression for the whole season. He finished the year with a 3.75 xERA and his xwOBA was .022 higher than his wOBA.
None of Lugo’s metrics last season ranked in the top third of the league. Yet, Lugo has great command and throws nine different pitches to keep hitters guessing. In his three starts this season, Lugo has a 3.24 ERA. He was a bit shaky in his first outing but allowed just three earned runs total in the next two starts.
Not only will we see the Cy Young runner-up, but also the AL MVP runner-up as Bobby Witt Jr. looks to avenge a poor postseason performance. As good as Witt is, he needs help, and he has just not gotten in this year.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and newly acquired Jonathan India are all hitting under .220. Witt is the only Royal with a wRC+ above 105. The Royals offense has managed just eight home runs all season, the fewest in baseball.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
A slew of injuries earned Carlos Carrasco another shot in the majors after signing a minor league contract with the Yankees this offseason. The 38-year-old has struggled for the last few seasons. He had a 6.80 ERA in 2023 with the Mets and a 5.64 ERA last season with Cleveland. He went 3-10 and was designated for assignment in September.
All the Yankees needed was a warm body in their rotation, and that is basically all they are getting from Carrasco. He has a 7.71 ERA in three appearances, and in his last outing he had the same number of home runs allowed as strikeouts. He ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in nearly every category.
After getting all the attention the first week of the season, the Yankees offense has come back down to earth a little bit. They still rank second in the league in runs scored and have the highest team OPS.
As good as Aaron Judge was last season, he is somehow on pace to be even better. The Yankees’ captain is batting .357 with a 1.228 OPS and leads the league with six home runs. Paul Goldschmidt is also hitting .357 and is showing shades of his old self, while Ben Rice appears to have taken a massive step in his second season.
Royals vs Yankees Best Bet, Predictions
Lugo was the poster boy for negative regression last season, and he was able to outrun it all year on the way to a Cy Young runner-up finish.
Here he is again back in the same boat. Lugo has a 3.24 ERA through his first three starts yet has a 4.11 xERA. All of his expected indicators rank in the bottom half of the league, as does his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit percentage.
He's not missing bats at all and has a hard-hit rate over 45%. He has already thrown 10 different pitches this season, but it is still a wonder how he has managed to limit damage so well.
Carrasco’s days of being even a league-average pitcher are long gone, and the long list of injuries to the Yankees rotation is the only reason he is not pitching in Scranton.
Carrasco has allowed at least three runs in all three appearances this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 12 innings. Carrasco’s main pitch is his slider, which he throws nearly 30% of the time. It has allowed a whopping .600 batting average against with a .750 wOBA to opponents.
The two hitters with the best odds to win the AL MVP award will be squaring off. We have seen what the Yankees offense is capable of this season. Despite the early struggles for Kansas City, a trip to the Bronx will probably be a welcome sight compared to the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium.
The over is 7-2 in games at Yankees Stadium this season. With two pitchers I do not trust and the wind blowing out to left on Monday night, give me the over.
Pick:Over 8.5
Royals vs Yankees Same-Game Parlay
- Over 8.5
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits
Parlay odds: +187 (BetMGM)
