The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 5, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Dodgers are favored by -225 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +188 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Astros Prediction
- Dodgers vs Astros Pick: Lean Astros F5 Moneyline (+200 or better)
My Dodgers vs Astros best bet is on Houston to win in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Astros Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -132 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -225 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +188 |
- Dodgers vs Astros moneyline: Dodgers -225, Astros +188
- Dodgers vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Dodgers vs Astros spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-132), Astros +1.5 (+110)
Dodgers vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Stat | RHP Peter Lambert (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 0.60/2.23 | ERA / xERA | 3.52/2.98 |
| 1.98/3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 2.42/3.54 |
| 21.0% | K-BB% | 18.2% |
| 53.4% | GB% | 43.2% |
| .230 | BABIP | .316 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 99 | Location+ | 98 |
Dodgers vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
Starting with the obvious, Shohei Ohtani is looking to add Cy Young hardware to his MVPs and the biggest obstacle this year may be his workload.
Ohtani didn’t make his first start until March 31st and his shortest rest between starts was six days in his last time out. He’s had another full week of rest since then.
He’ll surpass the 19 starts, 100 innings projections on his Fangraphs page if he stays healthy, but it will be interesting to see if he throws the required 162 innings to qualify for the ERA title.
On a positive note, while his 30 innings do not currently qualify him, the Dodgers have allowed him to pitch exactly six innings in all five starts this year.
Stretching out from shorter starts last year, the K-BB% has dropped from 28.2% to 21%, a bit below his career 22.7% rate, but still 16th among pitchers with at least 30 innings.
What’s more impressive is that the 97.9 mph Ohtani’s averaging on his fastball is 1.2 mph above his career average velocity, even if it’s 0.5 mph behind last year’s shorter starts. The result has been pure 62 PitchingBot and 108 Stuff+ grades on the pitch, as opposed to his 60 and 104 career rates.
The overall pitch modeling and contact neutral estimators are very much in line with what he’s done for his career (3.21 xFIP 2026, 3.21 xFIP career), but the contact inclusive indicators (2.24 xERA, 1.98 FIP) are even better because he’s only allowed 2.7% Barrels/BBE this year. In fact, Ohtani has only allowed six barrels since returning from Tommy John surgery last year.
Statcast measures seven different pitches thrown by Ohtani this year, but only four more than four percent of the time overall. He has thrown 10% sinkers to RHBs (4% sinkers overall), who get sweepers (40%) or fastballs (41%) the majority of the time.
LHBs see more fastballs (48%) with an even mix of splitters (21%) and curves (20%). The sinker and curve are the only below average grading pitches.
More interesting for a matchup against the Astros, who generally send up seven RHBs, Ohtani has an 82-point reverse split since returning to the mound in 2025 (.195 wOBA vs .277). However, Statcast flips that around to give LHBs a small edge (.250 xwOBA vs .241).
Houston has been a top five offense against fastballs, splitters, curveballs and sliders, though not as good against sinkers, which Ohtani may elect to throw more of here. Still, including last year’s numbers, no single projected Astro matches up well with Ohtani’s offerings from a pitch run value standpoint. He’s simply too good.
Looking over the list of mediocre (MIA, SFG, CLE) and underperforming offenses (NYM, TOR) Ohtani has faced this season, a Houston team with a 116 wRC+ at home and 122 vs RHP may be his toughest test of the season thus far. (Projected lineup 115 wRC+ vs RHP since last year.)
As far as the running game is concerned, Ohtani has been slightly better than average at holding runners, while both Will Smith and Dalton Rushing are at zero CS Above Average. Houston’s 15 Stolen Bases are fourth-fewest in the majors.
Not a single Astro has accumulated a Base Running Run (BRR) yet this year either.
At eight Runs Prevented and 10 OAA, the Dodgers have been a top five defense this year. In fact, if Rushing does catch, he’d be the only negative Fielding Run Value (FRV) in the projected lineup.
The Dodger bullpen is down Edwin Diaz, but should be reasonably well rested for this one. Despite a 4.20 ERA, they still hold the third best estimators in baseball over the last 30 days (through Sunday) with a 3.52 FIP/3.85 xFIP/3.38 SIERA combo.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
Peter Lambert was a 50 Future Value prospect via Fangraphs in 2019, but never made much noise with a 7.8 K-BB% over 243.2 innings with the Rockies.
A 10.2 K-BB% in 116.2 innings in Japan also didn’t cause much fanfare when the Astros brought him back into the league this year either.
However, after striking out eight Cardinals in his first start and eight more Guardians in his second with a combined 17.7 SwStr%, people began to notice, as he was throwing a mph harder than when he left the league.
Unfortunately, Lambert’s velocity fell back down to 94.3 mph in his third start, in line with his 2024 velocity with the Rockies. He struck out just three of 18 Orioles with as many walks and just a 4.4 SwStr%.
The strangest thing is that it graded as his best performance so far by both a 4.07 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+. Neither liked the two outings where he was missing bats at an elite rate very much. It’s head scratching, to say the least.
The Dodgers have a team 129 wRC+ on the road and 120 vs RHP. They had been slumping a bit lately before breaking out for eight runs on Monday.
The projected lineup has a 127 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and 122 over the last 30 days overall.
There is one caveat here and that is that Ohtani hasn’t been hitting when he recently. Normally, that’s great news for the opposition, but Dalton Rushing merely has a 234 wRC+ this year.
Lambert has been throwing six pitches to RHBs between 7% and 39% of the time this year, five to LHBs between 8% and 33%.
The Dodgers struggle with exactly one of those pitches, the cutter, which Lambert offers 17% of the time to LHBs and 11% of the time to RHBs. It’s a poorly graded pitch by Pitching+ (84), but more average (50) by PichingBot.
More problematically, it’s been Lambert’s only negative run value pitch this season (-3.5 RV/100), though we’re still talking a very small sample of 42 thrown.
From a run value standpoint, Will Smith and Max Mumcy match up best with what Lambert throws (assuming no Ohtani in the lineup).
Lambert traditionally has a standard split with batters from either side of the plate above a .360 wOBA against him for his career, but through three 2026 starts, RHBs have been .200 points higher.
We’re still talking a very small sample, but the cutter is a new pitch for him that could neutralize or even reverse his splits.
Lambert has been just as good as Ohtani at holding runners (1 Net Bases Prevented) in fewer innings, while Yainer Diaz is a slightly below average throwing catcher this year (-1 CSAA).
The Dodgers are also a bottom third of the league base stealing team (18) and even when he does hit, Ohtani hasn’t been running this year. Andy Pages and Hyeseong Kim have been the big base stealing threats for the Dodgers this year, leading the team and projected lineup with five Stolen Bases and two Net Bases Gained each.
The Houston defense has been bottom third of the league (-3 Runs Prevented, -5 OAA), but the projected lineup sits at a more digestible 0 FRV with Cam Smith (+4) their best defender and Diaz (-3) their worst.
The Houston bullpen has the absolute worst estimators in the league over the last 30 days (5.74 FIP/5.48 xFIP/5.00 SIERA) and has been heavily worked, including throwing half the game on Monday night.
Bryan Abreu and Bennett Sousa may be out after throwing back to back days and three of the last four respectively.
Dodgers vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Lambert’s results through three starts are combined estimators around three and a half. His projections are about a run higher. If we split the middle (which I’m not saying is the right thing to do), Ohtani is still around a run better.
The Dodgers have the better lineup, though the Astros have been more impressive than expected.
The Dodgers are also the better defense, bullpen and maybe even base running team.
Considering all that, it’s tough to make a case for the Astros, but the Dodgers are also -225 and that’s currently the best line available, according to Action Labs.
I am a bit higher than the actual total of 8.5, but with less confidence due to Lambert’s wide range of outcomes.
Against a team that strikes out at an average rate against RHP (proj. LU 21.6% since 2025), I have Ohtani right around his 6.5 K prop.
It’s difficult to make a call here, but Lambert’s volatility plays better the larger this line gets and Dodger lines increase more often than they decrease.
There is absolutely no way I want anything to do with the Houston bullpen, but if the F5 line (currently best price +168 FanDuel) does reach +200, it may become tempting.
Alternatively, Lambert could offer a live betting opportunity. If he’s pitching well and keeps it close or even leaves with a lead, you might get a decent price on the Dodgers once the Houston bullpen comes into play.
Pick: Lean Astros F5 Moneyline (+200 or better)
