The Blue Jays and Mariners meet tonight in Toronto for Game 7, the first of these MLB playoffs and the 16th overall since 2005.
The winner will advance to face the Dodgers in the World Series, which begins Friday night.
The Blue Jays are favored on the moneyline at -132 while the Mariners are +108 underdogs. The total is set at 7.5.
Do Home Teams Have Edge in Game 7?
The Blue Jays are the home team tonight and, generally speaking, one would think the home team has the edge in a winner-take-all game.
However, recent history tells a different story. Since 2005, road teams are 8-5 in Game 7s, including five straight wins and seven of the last eight dating back to 2014.
The only home team to win during that stretch came in 2017 when the Astros shut out the Yankees 4-0 in Houston.
However, home teams that specifically had to win Game 6 to force a Game 7 (as the Blue Jays did on Sunday night) have a different perspective.
In that situation and in the current 2-3-2 format, the home team has won 20 of 33 such games, including 14 of the last 18 dating back to 1985, according to MLB's Sarah Langs.
And in all of postseason history, the home team in a winner-take-all game is 68-67 — this includes series' of any length — and 30-29 specifically in best-of-seven matchups.
How Often Do Favorites Win?
Going back to 2005, per Bet Labs, underdogs actually hold a slight edge in Game 7 matchups, a promising sign for Seattle tonight.
During that 15-game stretch, underdogs are 8-7, winning each of the last two: the Diamondbacks over the Phillies and the Rangers over the Astros, both in 2023.
The last time a favorite won a Game 7 came in 2020, when both the Dodgers (vs. Braves) and the Rays (vs. Astros) prevailed on back-to-back days.
As of this writing, the Blue Jays are generating 52% of the betting tickets on tonight's game, which historically hasn't been a good omen.
A home favorite backed by the public has lost three straight Game 7s, and they're 3-6 overall since 2005.
Game 7 Totals: Under Has the Edge
Tonight's total is set at 7.5 in a pitching matchup that will feature Shane Bieber vs. George Kirby, and likely all-hands-on-deck for both teams, save last night's starters, Trey Yesavage and Logan Gilbert.
With teams deploying every pitcher they can in these winner-take-all games, it's understandable that the under has the edge.
In those same 15 Game 7s in the Bet Labs database going back to 2005, the under has gone 9-6 and it has also hit in three of the last four Game 7s and six of the last eight.
The two recent outliers in that eight-game sample both featured the Astros: In 2023 the Rangers beat them 11-4 in a game with a closing total of 9, and in 2019 the Nationals won 6-2 in a matchup with a closing total of 6.5.
This game, of course, will not feature the Astros. The last Game 7 to go over its total without the Astros was all the way back in 2016, one of the most memorable games in recent MLB history, when the Cubs beat the Guardians 8-7 with a closing total of 6.5.
