The slumping Miami Marlins (8-11) continue their series with the Philadelphia Phillies (12-8) on Saturday, April 19. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Marlins vs Phillies prediction and pick for Saturday below.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Pick Today
- Marlins vs Phillies pick:Phillies -1.5 (+102 | Play to -105)
My Marlins vs Phillies best bet is Phillies -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Lines
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 10 -118o / -103u | +185 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 10 -118o / -103u | -225 |
- Marlins vs Phillies Moneyline: Marlins +185, Phillies -225
- Marlins vs Phillies Total: 10 (-118o / -102u)
- Marlins vs Phillies Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-106), Phillies -1.5 (-115)
Marlins vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) | Stat | RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.79 / 6.73 | ERA / xERA | 2.30 / 3.39 |
| 5.21 / 4.59 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21 / 4.11 |
| 1.79 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 3.3% | K-BB% | 13.6% |
| 54.3% | GB% | 40% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 93 | Location+ | 101 |
Marlins vs Phillies Preview, Predictions
Marlins Betting Preview
There’s no sugarcoating the fact that right-hander Cal Quantrill is, analytically speaking, one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Through three starts this season, Quantrill owns a 6.73 expected ERA (xERA) and a .336 expected batting average (xBA).
Those metrics place him in the seventh and third percentiles, respectively. While three games is a small sample size, he was equally poor over a 29-start sample last season.
Across those 29 starts, Quantrill posted a 5.31 xERA and a .274 xBA. Once again, he ranked in the fifth and ninth percentiles, respectively, in those categories.
The rest of his profile was similarly weak. Last season, Quantrill finished in the 28th percentile or lower in strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
In 2025, he again ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies hold a clear pitching edge with right-hander Taijuan Walker slated to take the mound. He is far stronger than Quantrill, both statistically and analytically.
Through three starts, Walker boasts a 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He also ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against the Miami Marlins. Walker owns a 6-1 record and 2.98 ERA over his past 11 appearances against Miami.
Not only do the Phillies hold the edge in starting pitching, but they also have a stronger bullpen.
Entering this matchup, Philadelphia’s relief staff outranks Miami’s in fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies clearly possess the pitching edge. Walker is better than Quantrill, and Philadelphia’s bullpen is stronger than Miami’s.
That just leaves the hitting, which is a closer comparison than the other two components of this matchup. That said, the Phillies outrank the Marlins in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Finally, the current Philadelphia roster boasts a .268 xBA, .543 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and .362 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) through 96 combined plate appearances against Quantrill.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+102 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I like Philadelphia to win and cover, but find more value in their run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting the Phillies run line at +102.
My Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+102)
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don't want to fade Walker's strong start to 2025.
