The Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on Monday, June 1. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NATS and MLB.TV.
The Nationals are favored by -147 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +121 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Picks
- Marlins vs Nationals Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-160)
My Marlins vs Nationals best bet is Sandy Alcantara to stay under his earned runs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Nationals Odds, Spread, Line
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8 -119o / -102u | +115 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -119o / -102u | -138 |
- Marlins vs Nationals Moneyline: Marlins ML +115, Nationals ML -138
- Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under: 8
- Marlins vs Nationals Run Line: Nationals -1.5 (+145), Marlins +1.5 (-176)
Marlins vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | Stat | Cade Cavalli (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.66/3.80 | ERA / xERA | 3.62/3.96 |
| 4.28/4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.01/3.76 |
| 9.6 | K-BB% | 17.5 |
| 45.6 | GB% | 46.2 |
| .297 | BABIP | .361 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 104 | Location+ | 94 |
Marlins vs Nationals Pick, Preview
14 earned runs in the last two starts from Sandy Alcantara. And now he takes on a team leading the league in run scoring. It's been terrible for Sandy and the Marlins' pitching staff more generally.
But my Matchups Model kinda likes how Sandy lines up against these Nationals. He throws a bunch of sinkers and changeups, usually keeping the ball on the ground.
Opponents have hit nine homers hit against him, so he has not been great at that, but it's still a better-than-average rate of giving up the long ball.
I'm personally unsure how the Nationals have scored as many runs as they have. Nunez, Crews, Milas, Tena, Lile, Vivas… these aren't exactly household names in the lineup.
Baseball is a game that moves in waves. You can predict the full season with moderate accuracy, but day-to-day, it's pretty tough to do. So that's why I like to jump in on guys after particularly bad stretches, like the one Sandy's on right now. I think he keeps the ball on the ground here and has a decent outing against this Nationals lineup.
And look at the price you can get on it. -160 for under 3.5 earned runs! His counterpart, Cade Cavalli, is at -370 for that same line! Wild stuff, and it feels like a spot to buy in to me.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-160)
