The New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins on July 3, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -188 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +158 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Yankees Prediction
- Twins vs Yankees Pick: Over 10 (-104)
My Twins vs Yankees best bet is Over 10 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 10 -104o / -118u | +158 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 10 -104o / -118u | -188 |
- Twins vs Yankees moneyline: Twins +158, Yankees -188
- Twins vs Yankees over/under: 10 (-104o / -118u)
- Twins vs Yankees spread: Twins +1.5 (-130), Yankees -1.5 (+108)
Twins vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Mike Paredes (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.26 / 5.42 | ERA / xERA | 4.06 / 3.60 |
| 5.44 / 5.35 | FIP / xFIP | 4.60 / 4.43 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 15.0 |
| 40.5 | GB% | 32.7 |
| .232 | BABIP | .269 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Twins vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
If you’re looking for offense on Friday’s card, Twins-Yankees is where I’m planting my flag. The market opened this total at 9.5 runs, and I still think there’s value on the over. I’ll be in the ballpark tonight, so that may or may not play a part in why I’m advocating for the over.
Let’s begin with Yankees starter Gerrit Cole.
His season ERA sits at a respectable 4.06, but he’s been anything but dominant since returning from Tommy John surgery. After opening with 12 2/3 scoreless innings across his first two starts, he’s posted a 6.12 ERA over his last five outings, serving up seven home runs in just 25 innings.
The underlying metrics are just as concerning. Baseball Savant shows Cole’s four-seam fastball isn’t generating the same whiff rate it did during his Cy Young peak, while his hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed have both climbed over the past month.
His strikeout numbers remain respectable, but when hitters do connect, they’re doing serious damage. That’s a dangerous combination against a Twins lineup that has consistently punished velocity this season.
Minnesota’s offense has quietly produced solid underlying numbers against right-handed pitching. They have several regulars who continue to post above-average expected production versus righties, led by Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee.
Byron Buxton remains day-to-day with a hip issue after missing the last three games, but the Twins elected not to place him on the injured list following Thursday’s off day. Assuming he’s able to return tonight, it gives Minnesota another middle-of-the-order bat capable of hitting the ball out of the yard.
Now flip to the other side, where rookie Mike Paredes draws one of the toughest assignments imaginable against the Yankees.
Traditional numbers might make him look serviceable with a 4.26 ERA, but the underlying metrics suggest regression is coming. His 5.44 FIP is more than a full run higher than his ERA, largely because he hasn’t missed many bats.
He’s striking out fewer than five hitters per nine innings while walking over three per nine, forcing him to survive on contact management. That’s a scary recipe inside Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees also get a timely boost with Trent Grisham expected back from the injured list, restoring some much-needed length to a lineup that’s desperately searching for a spark during its seven-game losing streak.
His return allows Cody Bellinger to slide back into left field while strengthening both the defense and the batting order.
Twins vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
This also feels like a classic buy-low spot on the Yankees’ offense. They’ve been ice cold lately, but the underlying quality of contact hasn’t completely disappeared.
If you dive deep into the metrics, they grade New York well in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage against right-handed pitching, and facing a rookie with below-average swing-and-miss stuff is exactly the type of matchup that can get an offense rolling again.
Don’t forget the weather, either. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 90s with the ball expected to carry well at Yankee Stadium.
Cole’s recent home run issues, Paredes’ shaky peripherals, Grisham’s expected return, favorable hitting conditions and two offenses capable of producing barrels all point in the same direction.
I’ll gladly buy low on the Yankees offense tonight and expect Cole to remain prone to the long ball on this extremely warm July evening in the Bronx.
Pick: Over 10 (-104, FanDuel)
