We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
We’re about to hit the portion of the schedule that I feel has the biggest edge.
I’m 4-2 on the Triple-A free plays that I’ve entered into the Action Network app, which is respectable, but I fully expect to win more going forward, and that starts with a huge edge this week.
Pitching at the Triple-A level is brutal right now. I was adjusting my power ratings, and both the starting pitching and reliever ratings are as bad as they’ve been since I started betting Minor League baseball over five years ago.
As such, Overs are on the menu this week.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Oklahoma City Comets @ Albuquerque Isotopes
Tuesday, 8:35 PM ET
Isotopes Park is a launching pad. It’s not quite Coors Field, but at 5,100 feet of elevation, it still has one of the highest altitudes in affiliated baseball. The ball flies in Albuquerque, and I’ll be betting Over in every game, even if the totals are in the 14 to 15 range.
These are two of the top lineups at the Minor League level. Based on my numbers, these two teams have 12 of the top 50 Triple-A hitters.
Cole Carrigg (ABQ) and James Tibbs III (OKC) are two of the elite hitters in all of Triple-A, while guys like Ryan Ward, Jack Suwinski, Starlin Thompson, Zac Veen, and Chad Stevens have all had some extended success at this level.
Vimael Machin is off to an insane start with a 1.061 OPS so far this season, and then you have big-time upside guys playing well like Noah Miller, Charlie Condon, and Ryan Fitzgerald.
Both teams also have a guy (Adael Amador for Albuquerque and Zach Ehrhard for Oklahoma City) who is probably one good week away from being very much in this conversation.
We should see quality at bat after quality at bat for 9 innings every game in this series.
Finally, neither staff is particularly deep, so there could be some big-time crooked numbers, especially if any game gets lopsided.
I think the totals are going to be astronomically high, and even then, I don’t think they will be high enough.
Pick: Over
El Paso Chihuahuas @ Salt Lake Bees
Friday, 8:35 PM ET
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some overs in this series either, but my stronger target will be the El Paso side.
El Paso’s lineup is improving. Pablo Reyes has been a monster veteran pickup for El Paso, while Jase Bowen and Samad Taylor continue to be two of the best players in the PCL.
Mason McCoy has always been solid at the Triple-A level, and he’s hitting .324 so far in the month of May, while there are a number of other guys that should thrive against all the bad Salt Lake pitching this week.
The Angels organization has always been one of the worst when it comes to developing pitching, and it’s usually why Salt Lake struggles every season.
Salt Lake is another high-altitude venue, and once again, the Angels have very little of note at the Triple-A level, which means they will continue to get lit up and likely lose games this week.
The Padres organization does a great job developing relief pitching, so while most teams don’t have a strong bullpen, there are a couple of reasonable high-leverage options for El Paso.
I also think we could see El Paso as an underdog on the road at times in this series, so I like the value on an El Paso lineup I rate better than the market has lately.
Pick: El Paso ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Friday
- Oklahoma City vs Albuquerque Over (8:35 PM ET)
- El Paso Chihuahuas ML (@ Salt Lake, 8:35 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
