Welcome to another Dinger Tuesday.
I dove into today's MLB slate and came through with 5 home run picks for today, including picks for Mike Trout in Angels vs. Blue Jays, Salvador Perez in Royals vs. Orioles, James Wood in Nationals vs. Braves and many more.
Let's dive into my MLB home run picks and Major League Baseball predictions for the games on Tuesday, April 21.
MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's MLB home run picks from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Pick
Jordan Walker
Over 0.5 HRs (+440)
Walker continues to be priced too high on a daily basis, and given this matchup, he's priced far too high once again.
Marlins pitcher Chris Paddack has been an absolute gas can for righty power in his career, allowing a 1.52 HR/9.
Walker has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, and I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jordan Walker Over 0.5 HRs (+440)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Pick
James Wood
Over 0.5 HRs (+500)
This season, Wood has looked like the same guy we saw at the beginning of last season, and these odds are far too high.
Opposing pitcher Reynaldo Lopez has been a below-average matchup for HRs over the past few years, but he looks like he isn't the same pitcher, and his stuff has been much worse.
He grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power, and even in below-average hitting weather, these odds are far too high.
I have the true odds around +425, making this a great bet.
Pick: James Wood Over 0.5 HRs (+500)
Orioles vs Royals Home Run Pick
Salvador Perez
Over 0.5 HRs (+497)
Baltimore's Shane Baz isn't a bad pitcher and was a great prospect, but he's regressed in recent years. He grades out as an above-average pitcher but has struggled with righty power (career 1.44 HR/9).
The weather in Kansas City should be good, with temperatures in the high 70s and wind blowing out at 13 MPH. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Salvador Perez Over 0.5 HRs (+497)
Blue Jays vs Angels Home Run Pick
Mike Trout
Over 0.5 HRs (+375)
Trout has looked incredible to start the season, and all of the underlying numbers have backed it up.
He gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has been a great matchup for righty power for many years now.
The weather is a bit of a concern, but given Trout's recent form, I don't care. I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Pick: Mike Trout Over 0.5 HRs (+375)
Athletics vs Mariners Home Run Pick
Shea Langeliers
Over 0.5 HRs (+550)
Langeliers' matchup against Luis Castillo is around average, and this ballpark is a downgrade, but these odds are far too high.
Langeliers has been one of the best hitters in the league this season and has been hammering the ball since the All-Star Break last season.
Castillo is a below-average matchup for righty power, but I have the true odds here around +475.
Pick: Shea Langeliers Over 0.5 HRs (+550)
