Congrats on making it to Friday.
Here are my 3 favorite MLB home run picks today for Friday, July 10.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs Tigers
After launching a career-high 36 home runs in 2025, Riley Greene has had a somewhat underwhelming first half of 2026 compared to his power expectations.
A two-time All-Star and core member of the Tigers' lineup, Greene shockingly went deep just four times through the first two months of the season, despite flirting with a .300 batting average after lowering his strikeout rate.
The 25-year-old finally came to life in June, belting seven home runs, and is off to a torrid start to July as well (8-for-27, 2 HR). Greene has an ISO of .267 since June 1st, which shows exactly the type of damage Detroit's star outfielder is capable of.
The Tigers have won five games in a row and are surging back into playoff contention. For that success to continue, Greene has to carry this offense as he did last season when he led the squad in home runs, RBI, and OPS.
This weekend's three-game series with Philadelphia could go a long way in providing Greene and his team with one more jolt before the All-Star break.
Tonight's starting pitcher, right-hander Aaron Nola, could be a welcome sight for these hungry Detroit hitters. The 33-year-old Nola is on his way to the worst season of his career, as he has allowed opponents to hit .285 against him and surrendered 19 home runs over 92 innings. Opponents are slugging .507 against Nola, another career-worst mark, while his 9.3% barrel rate allowed is also the highest it has ever been for the veteran.
Nola's curveball still stands as a quality pitch, but the rest of his arsenal is getting destroyed regularly by opposing hitters. Opponents are slugging .775 against his four-seamer, a pitch that Nola uses nearly 30% of the time when facing left-handed bats like Greene. That pitch has been
the victim of 14 extra-base hits, including six home runs, and has a -13 run value according to
statcast.
Nola has had trouble putting away hitters from both sides of the plate, but a left-handed power hitter like Greene has the potential to send one out of Comerica Park tonight, especially if Nola continues to offer one of the worst pitches in baseball at a steady clip.
Pick: Riley Greene Home Run
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Yankees vs Nationals
The upstart Washington Nationals have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as the
team's young, exciting offense has turned them into a playoff contender much earlier than
expected. The Nationals lead baseball in runs scored (508) and rank second in both home runs (132) and slugging percentage (.435).
While All-Stars like James Wood and CJ Abrams get the attention, there are a handful of unsung heroes in this lineup making a name for themselves as well.
Curtis Mead is one of those players and, notably, one of the franchise's recent success stories.
A former top prospect with Tampa Bay, Mead never found his footing through parts of three seasons with the Rays, nor did he even come close to thriving in a short stint with the White Sox in 2025. The 25-year-old was then traded for the third time in his career this spring to Washington, where he has worked his way from just a platoon bat off the bench to a regular in the heart of the Nationals' lineup.
Mead's surge in power has been particularly thrilling for the Nationals. The Australia native is up to 15 home runs on the year to go along with a .240 ISO, which is tied for third on the squad.
Mead was always projected to be a quality hitter, but entered 2026 with just eight home runs over his first three seasons. It appears to be sustainable, as his hard-hit rate (43.4%) and barrel rate (11.3%) are much higher than in previous campaigns, while his strikeout rate has dropped to just 18.9%.
The Nationals are crushing southpaws in 2026; they have the highest OPS (.780) against left-handed pitching of any major league team and rank second in slugging percentage (.435).
The right-handed-hitting Mead and his 13 extra-base hits against lefties have been a major reason for that success.
Tonight, the Nationals host the Yankees and 26-year-old lefty Ryan Weathers, who has had a very polarizing debut season in pinstripes.
While Weathers has twirled some gems so far in 2026, he has also been lit up by some pretty mediocre offenses. His last two starts were underwhelming, yet came against two of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching in Minnesota and Detroit. Both of those teams rank in the bottom third of the league in left-handed slugging percentage.
Despite not allowing a home run over his last three outings, don't be fooled by those recent numbers; the 26-year-old has surrendered multiple home runs on five occasions this season. Meanwhile, his opponents are slugging .649 against his four-seam fastball in particular.
Weathers will have his hands full tonight limiting Mead and this potent Washington attack.
Pick: Curtis Mead Home Run
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Blue Jays vs Padres
Albeit a small sample size, Shane Bieber's second season in Toronto has been a serious disappointment.
A two-time All-Star and former Cy Young Award winner in Cleveland, the 31-year-old Bieber has been a shell of his former self since returning from injury last month. In just 13 innings, the right-hander has allowed six home runs and has a 54.2% hard-hit rate. Opponents are slugging .737 against the veteran so far this season, including a .750 SLG against his four-seam fastball, a pitch Bieber throws 40% of the time.
Right-handed bats are hitting .444 with an .852 SLG so far on the season against Bieber, making Manny Machado a candidate to cause some damage this evening in San Diego.
The veteran third baseman has found his groove at the plate again after a rough start to 2026. So far in July, Machado has gone deep three times and is slugging .615 with a 1.009 OPS.
The rumors of Machado's demise are likely exaggerated. While his overall batting average remains well below his expected mark, Machado has always been notorious for his slow starts. For instance, he owns a career OPS of .777 in May, compared to .853 in June and .870 in July.
This season has been a similar story for the seven-time All-Star. Machado owns a .294 ISO since June 1st, one of the highest marks in baseball during that span, and is now up to a team-high 19 home runs on the season.
His propensity to crush fastballs remains, as the 34-year-old is slugging .611 this season against the four-seamer in particular. Of those 19 bombs, 14 have come off a fastball, so look for Machado to try to pounce on a heater from Bieber early in this one.
Pick: Manny Machado Home Run
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