For Friday, August 1, I'm on four MLB home run props: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Oneil Cruz and Ketel Marte.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, August 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 1
Pete Alonso (+350)
vs Giants (SP: LHP Robbie Ray)
I'm backing a couple of righty bats for the Mets today in Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. The matchup is a good one as they are going up against Robbie Ray, who has historically been a plus matchup for righty power, giving up 1.46 HR/9.
Ray has been better this season at suppressing righty power, giving up a 1.17 HR/9, but that is likely a result of pitching in San Francisco, which is the most pitcher friendly ballpark in the league.
The wind is blowing in from left field today, but the ballpark isn't terribly wind receptive and WeatherEdge has this game as a 20% boost to homers, albeit with only a 71-game sample size. I have the true odds on Alonso today at around +300, making this a good EV bet.
Francisco Lindor (+4500)
vs Giants (SP: LHP Robbie Ray)
Everything I wrote about Alonso above also applies to Francisco Lindor.
I have the true odds of Lindor homering today at around +400, making this a good EV bet.
Oneil Cruz (+350)
at Rockies (SP: RHP Antonio Senzatela)
Oneil Cruz is in a great spot today with a massive ballpark upgrade as he's playing in Coors and has a good matchup vs. Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela has only been a slightly above average matchup for lefty power this season, but also only strikes lefties out at an 8.2% clip and gives up above average hard contact, which should be great for Cruz.
Cruz has the highest bat speed in the league and if he can get one up in the air, he's got a great chance of seeing the ball leaving the park today. I have the true odds of Cruz homering at around +300, making this a great EV bet.
Ketel Marte (+320)
at Athletics (SP: LHP Jacob Lopez)
Ketel Marte has been one of the best power hitters in the league since the beginning of last season and is in a great spot today.
Jacob Lopez has been hammered by righty power this season, giving up a large 1.66 HR/9 to go along with a fly ball rate near 55%. The ballpark is also a massive upgrade for Marte and the weather is great for hitting today with temperatures in the mid 80s and wind blowing out at 9 mph.
I have the true odds of Marte homering today at around +250, making this a great EV bet.
