The good times continued on Wednesday as we hit our only pick of the day, which brought us to just over three units of profit on the season.
I’m seeing more value on Thursday, despite the smaller slate, with three picks across an afternoon of baseball.
Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Thursday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — April 10, 2025
White Sox vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jonathan Cannon vs. Gavin Williams
This is yet another example of an NRFI that’s projecting well because one team has an extremely low total.
That team is, of course, the White Sox. Chicago is projected for just 2.74 runs today, and Guardians starter Gavin Williams has solid splits the first time through the order. With no real threatening hitters at the top of the White Sox lineup, they’re a fairly safe fade.
Cleveland is a bit riskier, since Chicago starter Jonathan Cannon is neither especially solid overall nor early in games. However, we’re expecting brutal hitting conditions, especially at the start of the game, which lowers the risk considerably.
If you don’t have access to BetRivers, I’d play this one down to the -135 line at Caesars.
Twins vs. Royals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Michael Wacha
This game has seen the total rise to 8.5 after opening at 8.0, but we’re still getting even money on the YRFI.
That’s solid value, especially considering how stacked the top of both lineups are, with four of the first six hitters finishing 2024 with a 140 or higher wRC+. Additionally, both pitchers had slightly higher xFIP marks the first time through the order than overall last season.
Plus, we’ve got a solid hitter’s park in Kauffman Stadium, and it’s the only game on the slate that WeatherEdge is projecting favorable hitting conditions for. That’s more than enough for an even-money play, and BetMGM is also offering that line.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Walker Buehler
I have a fairly similar projection here as I do in Twins/Royals. The total is the same at 8.5, and both pitchers are also worse the first time through the order than overall.
This is especially noteworthy for Buehler, whose overall ERA was 5.38 last season but jumped to the wrong side of six the first time through the order. That’s bad news against a Toronto lineup featuring Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. as the first two hitters.
Boston could certainly cash this one for us as well, so we’ve got options on both sides of the field here. BetMGM has a -105 YRFI line, and it's good to -115 (or higher if the total ticks back up to 9.0).
