With the Dodgers getting runners to first and third but failing to score on Thursday, our MLB NRFI record on the day was a disappointing 1-2.
Hopefully we can get some of that back on Friday's MLB slate, as I have two picks for Friday, May 9.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks & Predictions — May 9, 2025
Cardinals vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Erick Fedde
I was slightly surprised to see most of the market have the YRFI between -105 and -110 for this game, especially considering the 8.5-run total and the fact that neither starting pitcher is strong.
Erick Fedde comes into this one with a 4.78 ERA and underlying numbers even higher. More importantly, for our purposes, his first-time-through-the-order ERA is north of seven, with 10 earned runs allowed in 12 innings of work.
He's allowed three YRFIs in seven starts, without even considering his team's ability to score.
He has a tough matchup against Washington, which has three straight bats with at least a 139 wRC+ on the season at the top of the order, followed by two slightly above-average hitters in the middle.
On the other side, the Nats' Mitchell Parker has a 3.48 overall ERA but an xFIP almost two runs higher.
He's not particularly vulnerable early in games, but he's due for some regression in general. On the season, he has a .223 BABIP and 2% HR/FB ratio, both of which are clearly unsustainable.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Luis Castillo
The Mariners are back home in Seattle for the first time in May. T-Mobile Park is the best hitters' park in baseball by a long shot, cutting scoring by a whopping 17% over the past three seasons. No other park has had more than an 8% impact, so it's essentially Coors Field in reverse.
That's led to Mariners NRFIs being an excellent option over the past few seasons, and Friday is no exception.
Seattle starter Luis Castillo has a 0.61 ERA his first time through the order, allowing just one run all season when facing hitters the first time.
Toronto's Kevin Gausman hasn't been quite as strong, but I'm certainly not complaining about his 2.12 ERA in that situation.
While both offenses have some strong bats, the old adage is good pitching beats good hitting. I'm not sure if that's always true, but given the ballpark, I bet it is on Friday.
