We went 1-2 (with one of the losses on a half-unit bet) on Tuesday, continuing the slight slump we're in.
Let's bust out of it on Wednesday, with three picks across the slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/16
Guardians vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams vs. Dean Kremer
Part of the projection here is based on the total rising to 8.5 after opening at 8.0, and trying to get ahead of any possible future line movement. My model doesn't show a huge edge right now, but our edge would also grow if the total continues to climb.
Outside of that, we have two pitchers who aren't especially strong early in games, with Dean Kremer also generally struggling to start the season. He has an 8.16 ERA through three starts.
More importantly, seven of the first eight hitters across both teams' lineups had a wRC+ of 120 or higher last season, with the lone exception being Adley Rutschman, who checks in at 119 so far this year.
That means the start of both lineups is fairly solid, giving us a couple of chances to get a run across — though Cleveland is more likely thanks to Kremer's struggles.
Nationals vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Bailey Falter
Sophomore starter Mitchell Parker is off to a great start to the season, with a 1.96 ERA. He also hasn't allowed a single run this year until his third time through the opposing order, making him an excellent NRFI option.
I have very little concern about the Pirates' mediocre lineup changing that, especially since their first three hitters are all on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the lefty Parker.
The other side is a bit more sketchy, as Bailey Falter brings a 7.20 ERA into the contest. However, his early-game splits and underlying numbers are much better than that, suggesting bad luck has been a factor.
Against a Nationals lineup without speedy leadoff hitter CJ Abrams, it's worth taking the risk at the low juice lines available.
Angels vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Patrick Corbin
Finding new and creative ways to fade Patrick Corbin is the real National Pastime here at the Action Network, and I'm getting in on the fun.
The much-maligned lefty has had overall ERA marks in the fives and higher the last four seasons and allowed three runs in four innings in his 2025 debut. While his first-time-through-the-order splits aren't especially bad, he's been equally hittable at all points of the game.
To make matters worse, the top of the Angels' lineup is considerably better against lefties than righties.
The Angels' Jose Soriano has been much better overall, but has slightly worse numbers his first time through the order than overall. He's also getting a bit of a downgrade by traveling to Texas, which plays better for batters than Angel Stadium.
That gives both teams a strong chance to pick up a YRFI in a game with a 9.5-run total.
