We dropped a NRFI after five consecutive outs on Tuesday to tip the day from winning to losing, but we press on today.
I have three MLB NRFI/YRFI picks on Wednesday, including another plus-money single-team YRFI.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and Major League Baseball model predictions for the big slate on Wednesday, April 30.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — April 30, 2025
Cardinals vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas vs. Brady Singer
This is another spot where I could make a case for a single-team YRFI on the Reds. However, the full-game line is a slightly better value since I'm projecting the Cardinals for a reasonable chance to score as well.
The game is in Cincinnati, one of the best hitters' parks in baseball. It also has somewhat favorable hitting weather, leading to a 9.0 run total that's juiced to the over.
Cards starter Miles Mikolas is bad, with his ERA, SIERA and xFIP all over 5.0. His xFIP the first time through the order is even worse at 5.57. The Reds are somewhat solid at the top, especially against righties.
St. Louis is doing just enough here to push this to the full-game YRFI, though, since Brady Singer has had a slightly higher xFIP his first time through the order in each of the last two seasons.
Twins vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Luis L. Ortiz
The market feels good about both pitchers in this matchup, with the total sitting at either 7.0 or 7.5, depending on the book. That's a solid sign for the NRFI.
More importantly, neither lineup (outside of potentially Jose Ramirez) is especially scary at the top. That's enough to outweigh some of the pitchers' splits, since neither arm is especially dominant early in the game.
This game also has very favorable pitching weather in a park that already favors defense a bit. It all adds up to a slight edge on the NRFI.
Yankees vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco vs. Cade Povich
We're going right back to the well on this Yankees team YRFI that cashed for us at an identical line yesterday. New York scored five runs on four homers in the first inning, and it has a similar projection tonight.
If anything, the matchup against lefty Cade Povich is even better. The Yankees are the best overall lineup in wRC+ this season, but that mark jumps another 10 points when taking on southpaws.
Povich owns a career ERA north of 5.00 that has continued into this season — and it's only slightly better early in games. That might be enough against lesser teams, but it's a recipe for disaster against the Yankees.
