Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev Mahserejian has that job for Friday, May 29.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Friday, May 29
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- Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Walks (+125)
- Texas Rangers Moneyline (-126)
- Washington Nationals Moneyline (-102)
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks
Taj Bradley has been excellent this season. He owns a 2.77 ERA backed by a 3.61 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, and 3.54 SIERA across 52 innings pitched.
While some regression in his ERA is expected, this is a significant jump in his career. Bradley is a better pitcher than ever, with a career-best 1.17 WHIP and career-high 97.1 MPH average fastball velocity.
Nevertheless, Bradley still has some pain points. Notably, he is struggling to limit walks on the road.
- Home BB% – 5.1%
- Away BB% – 10.9%
This alone makes his over 2.5 walks bet appealing, but combined with the Pirates' ranking seventh in team BB%, there is a lot to like. The Pirates will be without two key hitters. Ryan O'Hearn and Konnor Griffin are out, yet that could play in favor of Bradley hitting this line.
The Twins are going to rely heavily on Bradley today after their bullpen usage in recent games. Taylor Rogers, Anthony Banda, and Yoendrys Gomez have all pitched in three of the past five games. This does not guarantee absence, but the Twins will likely prefer to keep their high-leverage arms shelved.
Bradley is no stranger to pitching deep into games. He has thrown at least 6 IP in nine starts.
Pick: Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Walks (+125)
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Picks
Stephen Kolek against MacKenzie Gore is a raw talent mismatch, heavily favoring the Rangers starter. However, Kolek has a 2.77 ERA in four starts this season, with zero runs allowed in his past two starts (15 1/3 IP).
Meanwhile, Gore has a 4.42 ERA, backed by a 3.79 xERA, 3.97 xFIP, and 3.89 SIERA. Gore's season has been inconsistent, but he is just off a game with one earned run in six IP, albeit against the Los Angeles Angels.
What really gives Gore an advantage today is his home/road splits.
- Gore Away: – 5.81 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.89 xFIP, 8.6% K-BB
- Gore Home: – 2.63 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.78 xFIP, 25.5% K-BB
Also, Kolek is due for some regression. His 2.77 ERA is not entirely fake, but maintaining success with a 9.2% K-BB rate is tough. He is facing a Rangers offense that ranks 14th against RHP by wRC+, while Gore faces a Royals offense that ranks 24th against LHP.
The Royals' bullpen is "fresher" than the Rangers', but both should have all their high-leverage arms available today.
Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-126)
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Picks
Lucas Giolito is not Lucas Giolito anymore. His average velocity across all pitches is down nearly three MPH relative to the last two seasons. He is down nearly four MPH from his career-high velocities in 2019-2020.
Despite these velocity issues, Giolito has only allowed three runs in 10 innings this season. He has succeeded in his first two starts because of luck. Giolito has not allowed a home run yet, but is inducing a career-low 29.6% groundball rate.
This version of Giolito, unless a significant jump occurs within a week, is batting practice for a Nationals offense that ranks 11th in wRC+ vs RHP. They also have the second-most HR against them this season.
Furthermore, the Padres will be facing multiple LHP today. San Diego ranks second-worst vs LHP this season, only ahead of division opponent Colorado.
The Padres' offense is dealing with a myriad of issues, most notably the homer-less streak from Fernando Tatis Jr. this season. He may break this cold stretch against the Nationals this weekend, but it is unlikely to come against today's main pitchers, Paxton Schultz or Andrew Alvarez.
Schultz boasts a gaudy 5.30 ERA, but his peripherals are solid across the board. Bulk pitcher Andrew Alvarez is more impressive. He has a 2.84 ERA, with an xFIP and SIERA both below 3.00. His 3.99 xERA is high, but overall, this is no scrub.
The Nationals' bullpen pales in comparison to the Padres', but they are at least fresh for this matchup. San Diego will likely have to rely on their bullpen arms early and often. Ideally, they will not be in a position to call upon their higher-leverage arms.
Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline (-102)
Mahserejian's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, May 29
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Walks (+125)
- Texas Rangers Moneyline (-126)
- Washington Nationals Moneyline (-102)
