Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, July 23.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Lean Padres ML at +200 or better
- Twins/Guardians Over 7.5 (-115, 0.58u | Bet to -120)
- Lean Rays ML at -105 or better
- Diamondbacks ML (+110, 0.5u | Bet to +105)
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Under 8.5 (-114, 0.57u | Bet through 8.5)
- Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (-113, 1u | Bet to -140)
InlineAdBlock
Padres vs Braves Picks
With just five games on the entire Thursday slate, we’re going to try to say at least something about every one of them.
While Griffin Canning hasn’t pitched well, his 6.67 ERA is well above all estimators, with only his Bot ERA (5.52) even reaching five. That and his 87 Pitching+ are both the worst pitch modeling numbers on the board, but a .337 BABIP and 63.2 LOB% are both career worsts and should regress.
It’s a tough spot against an Atlanta projected lineup averaging a 117 wRC+ against RHP (projecting Baldwin at DH and Bart behind the plate for the early start) with the likelihood of the majority of batters from the left-hand side where Canning has experienced most of his problems.
- LHBs: .405 wOBA, .368 xwOBA
- RHBs: .290 wOBA, .298 xwOBA
One positive is that San Diego’s projected lineup against a southpaw might be their best defensive lineup (28 FRV) and perhaps even better (31 FRV) if Freddy Fermin were to catch with Luis Campusano at DH. (Campusano caught Wednesday night.)
BARTOLO still rates the San Diego bullpen best in the league, but that’s probably only when Mason Miller is getting into games, which seems less likely with the Padres as two-to-one dogs.
In reality, this relief unit has been one of the worst in the league over the last month, even with their 4.89 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, and 4.16 SIERA all below their 5.29 ERA.
They only have a combined effort 11.6 K-BB% from their relievers during this period, but are also only stranding two-thirds of their runners.
Chris Sale has allowed more than two runs just three times this season and only once more than three, which was in his third start.
Counter to Canning, Sale’s 2.06 ERA is likely to regress in the opposite direction (83.6 LOB%, 17.2% unearned run rate), but even then, a 3.31 xERA is the worst indicator on his board.
Sale has the day’s best pitch modeling with a 3.09 Bot ERA and 120 Pitching+ and has held batters from either side of the plate below a .295 wOBA and xwOBA.
He’s facing an offense with just an 89 wRC+ against LHP and a projected lineup at just 95, but the Padre bats have been showing signs of life recently with that same projected lineup averaging a 134 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while finally getting major contributions from both Tatis Jr. (142) and Machado (180), but also Ty France refusing to fade (203) and Campusano coming on (155).
The Braves also have a good defense, in fact better than San Diego on a team-wide level, but their projected defense is 18 FRV (Fielding Run Value) fewer than their counterparts.
The Braves rank as BARTOLO’s 10th best bullpen, which is close to where they’ve sat in estimators over the last month (12th) with a 3.82 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, and 3.87 SIERA.
I have Sale more than a run and a half better than Canning, while BARTOLO makes it more than two, though with an improving offense and strong defense, I could be swayed by the market breaking +200 (full game at +195 as of this writing) simply because everything has a price.
Picks: Lean Padres ML at +200 or better
Twins vs Guardians Picks
We’re expecting fair weather with temperatures in the mid-70s and a light wind in from center in Cleveland for a park that plays 4% below average as a run environment. Projected umpire Charlie Ramos adds 1.2% back.
You’re correct to suspect that if I’m leading with the run environment, I’m considering a total here.
Taj Bradley broke a string of five straight outings with two runs or less, three in which he pitched seven complete innings, when he surrendered five at Wrigley last time out.
That’s something that can be forgiven, especially during the month of July, but even though Bradley is striking out batters at the best rate of his career (27.4 K%), his 11.5 SwStr% is right at his career average (11.4%) and he walks a dangerous line with a 9.4 BB%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE and 45.3 HardHit% with only one-third of his contact on the ground.
Facing a lineup full of LHBs won’t trigger a large platoon split with batters from either side of the plate between a .305 and .308 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradley, but it is a more dangerous Cleveland lineup with Jose Ramirez back, Steven Kwan bringing back his old swing (165 wRC+ L30 days) and Chase DeLauter heating up again (184).
This projected lineup (with Hedges in for Bailey for the early start) averages a 109 wRC+ against RHP and 119 wRC+ overall the last 30 days.
In fact, Ramirez (89) and Kyle Manzardo (85) are the only projected batters below a 100 wRC+ against RHP this season.
Add in a Minnesota defense that’s one of the worst in the league either at the team level (-14 Runs Prevented, -19 OAA) or projected (-17 FRV) and a bottom-of-the-league bullpen by either BARTOLO (26th) or last 30-day estimators (also 26th), and this is a spot where the Guardians could put up some runs.
Gavin Williams is similar to Bradley with a career-high 29.9 K% and 13.4 SwStr%, but a terrible contact profile (12% Barrels/BBE, 49 HardHit%), which is why Williams has a 4.00 ERA more befitting his 4.37 xERA with contact-neutral estimators only in the low threes.
While Williams has a career-best 7.6 BB%, the good news is that it’s down to 5.3% since his first four starts of the season.
He faces a dangerous Minnesota lineup with those projected to average a 122 wRC+ and .213 ISO against RHP. Royce Lewis is the only projected Twin below a 100 wRC+ against RHP this season, and Ryan Kreidler is the only one below a 99 wRC+ for the last month.
Cleveland does have a much better defense (7 Runs Prevented, 9 OAA with a projected defense at 9 FRV) than Minnesota, but it may matter less in a matchup where we’re expecting to see either strikeouts or power from the Twins’ bats.
The Guardians have a top third-of-the-league bullpen by BARTOLO rankings (seventh) and last 30-day estimators (10th).
The Twins don’t want to be behind in the late innings with the threat of Cade Smith looming, but odds are they’ll be able to barrel Williams a couple of times (at least two in 60% of starts) before worrying about that.
If both pitchers are on top of their games, this could turn into a pitcher’s duel, but there are enough red flags with an improving Cleveland offense and dangerous Minnesota one to suggest it may be more likely to sneak past the 7.5 total more often than not, though the edge is thin.
Picks: Over 7.5 (-115, 0.58u | Bet to -120)
Rays vs Blue Jays Picks
This matchup features a pair of pitchers who are difficult to get a handle on right now.
For the second straight season, Ian Seymour began the year in the bullpen before a transition to the rotation, which seemed long overdue when he struck out 27 of 65 batters with just a pair of walks in 18 innings, but has proven much less successful over his last two starts:
6.1 IP – 32 BF – 8 H – 9 R (8 ER) – 3 HR – 5 BB – 7 K
Seymour’s 20.3 K-BB% dropped to 18.7% with those two outings, but still 23.5% since moving into a starting role. However, he’s also allowed eight barrels in those six starts with only 29.5% of his contact on the ground.
Last year, the Blue Jays were a nightmare for LHPs, but this year they own just an 80 wRC+ in that situation. The projected lineup is up to 99, but with a marginal .160 ISO. Not terrible, but not what you’d expect here.
That same projected lineup is also averaging a mere 71 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with only Luis Urias’s small sample above 116 and five projected Toronto bats no higher than a 61 wRC+.
The Rays have a below-average defense (-4 RP, -9 OAA) that breaks even with their standard lineup against RHP (1 FRV), assuming Fortes in for Feduccia, who caught Wednesday night.
The Tampa Bay bullpen has gone from an early-season albatross to a current strength with the second-best estimators over the last month (3.69 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 3.15 xERA) and 11th-best BARTOLO ranking (3.88 wFIP).
Shane Bieber’s first three starts off the IL compared to his last two:
- F3: 13 IP – 64 BF – 20 H – 13 R – 6 HR – 7 BB – 9 K
- L2: 10.2 IP – 44 BF – 9 H – 2 R – 1 HR – 5 BB – 10 K
While his velocity spiked up nearly a full mph above any of his first three starts in his fourth (93 mph), it dropped down to 92.3 mph last time out, still higher than any of his first three, though (avg 92.0).
Eight of his nine barrels were surrendered in his first three starts, but his hard hit rate has reached at least 40% in every start.
Bieber did reach a season-high 13.8 SwStr% against the White Sox last time out.
The offenses he’s faced have been middle of the league through all five starts, though the Rays may mark his toughest spot with a projected lineup averaging a 128 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 112 wRC+ against RHP this year.
A Toronto defense that’s stunningly average (2 RP, 4 OAA) boosts to 18 FRV with our projected lineup. BARTOLO ranks this their 3rd best bullpen with last 30-day indicators (4.02 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA) ranking 8th.
By using season-weighted estimators, Seymour is nearly two runs ahead of Bieber, and the Rays are the clear play up to around -140.
However, we’re dealing with smaller samples (one in a starting role and one overall). Trusting BARTOLO’s projections still gives Seymour a slight edge.
With my normal threshold, the Rays would still be actionable up to around -115, but I tend to look for larger edges when dealing with projections because of smaller samples and will leave it as a lean for now, but it’s close.
Picks: Lean Rays ML at -105 or better
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Picks
With a forecast in the low 80s and a light wind blowing in from right-right center, Busch Stadium’s normal 6% run suppression shouldn’t be affected by much more than 3% either way, though we do not yet have an umpire assignment for the first game of this series.
I was one of many Brandon Pfaadt believers after he broke onto the scene during Arizona’s 2023 post-season run and looked like he could blossom into a star, but also soured on him after publishing ERAs above four and a half in each subsequent season with eroding skills.
Pfaadt got himself bullpened and then even sent down this year, but has returned to allow just five runs over 21 innings in four starts. The 15.7 K% and 6.6 SwStr% suggest it's not very real, though he has only walked one of 83 batters with just three barrels (4.4%) and a 30.9 HardHit%.
Pfaadt is still throwing the same six pitches since returning to the rotation, but has mixed up his usage significantly on a start-to-start basis, throwing his sinker and slider a combined 3.9% against a predominantly left-handed Dodger lineup two starts back and then 52.8% of the time against this more balanced Cardinal lineup last time out. I feel confident the Cardinals won't see the same usage patterns twice in a row.
LHBs have a .369 wOBA against Pfaadt this year, but just a .327 xwOBA and also just a .295 wOBA since being called back up. St. Louis didn’t barrel Pfaadt once, with just five hard-hit batted balls (26.3%), despite a mere 3.4 SwStr%.
While they still have a team 95 wRC+ against RHP with the projected lineup at 99, the St Louis offense has been fading with just a 76 wRC+ over the last week and now a 90 wRC+ at home this season. The same projected lineup averages just a 71 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Jordan Walker continues his post-Driveline breakout (144 wRC+ L30 days), but he’s the only projected Cardinal bat to reach a 100 wRC+ over the last month. Only two more (Burleson, Nootbaar) even reach 90.
One thing we should see in this series is great defense. The Diamondbacks are 2nd in the league with 29 Runs Prevented and 36 OAA with their projected defense at 30 FRV.
Arizona’s bullpen has the fifth-best estimators in the league over the last month (3.49 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) and the eighth-best BARTOLO ranking on the season.
Michael McGreevery has a 2.92 ERA with the fourth-lowest four-seam fastball velocity (91.7 mph) and the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.6%) among qualified starters. His 11 K-BB% is tied for the ninth-worst mark.
With so much contact and 9.6% Barrels/BBE, McGreevy sports a 5.35 xERA. Considering he pitches in one of the most power-suppressing environments in the league, it’s a bit surprising that six of his 14 home runs have been surrendered at home, where he still has a 3.96 FIP more than a run above his ERA.
Overall estimators all exceed four, which is much more about the .255 BABIP and 83.5 LOB% than the 12.5 HR/FB.
The Cardinals have a great defense (15 RP, 21 OAA, projected defense 21 FRV), but still allow a .291 BABIP as a team, so they’re not the reason for McGreevey’s success beyond his indicators.
LHBs have a .306 wOBA, but .368 xwOBA against him; RHBs have a .270, but .324.
The Diamondbacks don’t have a very potent offense with an 85 wRC+ on the road and 84 wRC+ against RHP. The projected lineup boosts those numbers to 89 and 94, still below average, with their last 30-day numbers not so impressive either (94 wRC+).
Much like the St Louis offense, their bullpen has been fading as well. They are 24th in last 30-day estimators (4.15 FIP, 4.93 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA) and would be even worse without allowing just 0.7 HR/9, but have also dropped to BARTOLO’s 23rd-ranked relief unit.
I have Pfaadt rated the better pitcher by a quarter of a run with offenses and defenses near even. Considering the decline of the St Louis bullpen with the Diamondbacks holding steady, I can’t get to the Cardinals being favored here, even when I widen my threshold for Pfaadt’s smaller sample.
Additionally, despite my misgivings concerning the starters and St Louis bullpen, this is still a negative run environment in a matchup between two great defenses and below-average offenses.
Picks: Diamondbacks ML (+110, 0.5u | Bet to +105), Under 8.5 (-114, 0.57u | Bet through 8.5)
Royals vs Tigers Picks
Detroit is a perfectly neutral run environment with Thursday’s forecast being a source of some conflict between multiple sources suggesting anywhere a boost or suppression up to 5%.
We do not yet have a scheduled umpire for the first game of this series.
Randy Dobnak makes just his second start for the Royals, but has made three total appearances, each lasting between four and 5 2/3 innings, going through the lineup at least twice each time.
For Dobnak’s career, 125.2 of his 154.2 major league innings have come prior to the 2022 season, with a 0.0 K-BB% in the 29 innings since.
Dobnak does generate ground balls (56.2% career), but even that has decreased since 2021 (52.1%). With only a single season consisting of nine innings where he’s had a hard hit rate below 40%, there’s no reason to think he won’t nearly triple a 1.93 ERA predicated on a .244 BABIP and 98.9 LOB%.
For his career, Dobnak has minimal split separation with batters from either side of the plate between a .325 and .330 wOBA.
The projected Detroit lineup has a 107 wRC+ at home and 106 vs RHP. They have just a 93 wRC+ over the last month, but it’s more of a stars-and-scrubs situation with McGonigle (129), Greene (155), and Dingler (130) all smoking the ball over the last month and the lineup deepening with the return of Gleyber Torres (143 wRC+ vs RHP this year).
The Kansas City defense is perfectly average, though their projected defense falls to -15 FRV with the loss of Bobby Witt Jr. (14), and also depends on whether Sal Perez (-10) is behind the plate or DHing.
The Royals' bullpen has been one of the worst all season (BARTOLO’s 25th ranked) and has the absolute worst estimators in the league (5.94 FIP, 5.20 xFIP, 4.93 SIERA) by a wide margin over the last month.
In his third start of the season, Troy Melton started a streak of three straight starts with five strikeouts and hasn’t had a subsequent start with fewer strikeouts than the one before it, reaching a career high nine in each of his last two.
Melton has a 28.7 K-BB% and 34 HardHit% with just two barrels over his last four starts, although he has faced some poor (Angels) and not entirely healthy (A’s, Yankees) lineups over that stretch.
He won’t sustain a .188 BABIP and 94.5 LOB%, but I still have his weighted estimators around three and a half.
Even without Witt, the projected Kansas City lineup averages a respectable 100 wRC+ against RHP and 107 over the last 30 days, with Perez’s 45 less than half the next worst projected batter in the former category and two of the three above 100 in the latter category projected to bat eighth (Collins) and ninth (Tolbert).
The Tigers have a bottom-five defense by Runs Prevented (-14) and OAA (-18), but project for 5 FRV behind Dingler’s 8, suggesting that aside from Carpenter (-6) and Torkelson (-7), most of the damage has been done by players no longer in the lineup.
BARTOLO only ranks the Detroit pen five spots ahead of Kansas City (20th), but they have much more respective numbers over the last month (4.29 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 3.74 SIERA), pushing them just outside the top third of the league.
While I’m almost perfectly aligned with the market on this game, I'm well above the total, but when breaking it down, most of the overrun comes from the Detroit side.
Dobnak is pitching on borrowed time, and the absence of Bobby Witt Jr. hurts this team just as much defensively as it does offensively. Add in potentially the worst bullpen in the game right now, and my favorite play of the day is for the Tigers to exceed their 4.5 run team total.
Picks: Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (-113, 1u | Bet to -140)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 23
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Lean Padres ML at +200 or better
- Twins/Guardians Over 7.5 (-115, 0.58u | Bet to -120)
- Lean Rays ML at -105 or better
- Diamondbacks ML (+110, 0.5u | Bet to +105)
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Under 8.5 (-114, 0.57u | Bet through 8.5)
- Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (-113, 1u | Bet to -140)
