Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, June 30.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
- Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBI's +205 (bet365, Play to +190)
- Miami Marlins -1.5 +100 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
Mets vs Blue Jays Picks
Kevin Gausman is in the midst of the worst stretch during his excellent tenure with the Blue Jays, and the underlying statistics suggest things may not turn around any time soon.
Across his last six starts (31 innings), Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 6.68 and holds an xFIP of 4.32. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 in that span, and a Pitching+ rating of 97, and batters have made plenty of quality contact, as he’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 46%.
Toronto's overworked bullpen has started to offer lesser results of late, and several of its top high-leverage arms are not well-rested entering this matchup, while Louis Varland will likely be unavailable if need be.
Meanwhile, Bo Bichette has racked up 28 RBI's over the last 40 games, which makes sense given his turnaround in form at the plate and the fact that Carson Benge and Juan Soto have both been on fire in front of him.
Assuming we see the Mets stick with Benge, Soto and Bichette at the top of the order, Bet365's price of +205 for Bichette to record an RBI looks to provide strong value.
Benge holds an OPS of .794 versus righties this season and has slugged .438 since May 1st, while Soto holds an OPS of 1.021 versus righties and has slugged .567 in the same span.
Bichette did not record a hit in the opener against his former team, made quality contact in three of four plate appearances and held an xBA of .363. Throughout the last 40 games, he's slugged .509 with an xBA of .296 and a hard-hit rate of 47%.
Bichette recorded 94 RBIs for the Blue Jays last season, and at +205 there looks to be value in backing him to record his first RBI as a visiting player at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.
Pick: Bo Bichette RBI +205 (bet365, Play to +190)
Marlins vs Rockies Picks
The scorching hot Marlins will look to earn their 20th win of June on Tuesday (19-6 so far), which would tie the 2003 World Series-winning team for the most wins in franchise history, having already guaranteed that this will be their best month in franchise history by winning percentage.
Eury Perez will toe the rubber Tuesday for the Marlins. He's far from a convincing option, but it seems that Miami deserves to be a larger favorite considering its edges elsewhere in this matchup, as well as the shaky work of Tanner Gordon prior to his hip injury.
Perez has pitched to a 4.24 xFIP and 4.94 xERA this season, but he does hold an excellent Stuff+ rating of 118 and a Pitching+ rating of 108. He will be backed by a rock-solid bullpen that holds the fifth-best ERA in MLB this season and the sixth-best ERA over the last 30 days.
Gordon has seemingly been better than his 6.37 ERA suggests, but he has consistently outperformed his underlying metrics throughout his 145 innings of work in MLB. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 88 and a Pitching+ rating of 94 this season and has really struggled at Coors Field, where he holds an ERA of 9.90.
Colorado's bullpen has been a train wreck of late, as over the last 30 days, Rockies relievers have pitched to an ERA of 6.43. They also rank 26th in xERA this season and hold the third-worst cumulative Pitching+ rating.
The Rockies rank 22nd in wRC+ versus righties this season, while Miami has still been marginally better with a wRC+ of 99.
The Marlins should have a good chance of doing some damage off of Gordon early in this matchup, before one of the league's worst bullpens tries to grind through five or six innings. A price of +100 looks appealing to back one of baseball's hottest teams wrapping up a historic month.
Picks: Marlins -1.5 +100 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 30
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- Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBI's +205 (Bet365, Play to +190)
- Miami Marlins -1.5 +100 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
