Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kevork Mahserejian has that job for Friday, May 15.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Friday, May 15
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- Texas Rangers Moneyline (-108)
- Dodgers vs Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
- Clay Holmes Over 2.5 Walks (+120)
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+116)
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Picks
The Astros and Rangers face off in the opening game of this weekend's series tonight. Both teams are sputtering this season, but the Rangers are at least one game back from first in the AL West and are coming off a rest day.
This game features promising young starters from both organizations. The Rangers will deploy former second-overall pick Jack Leiter, while the Astros start 2026 breakout Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti's 1.87 ERA this season is ninth among all starters with at least 20 innings pitched.
Jack Leiter has not had a similar fortune. His 4.85 ERA is a full run higher than his 3.86 ERA in 2025. However, there are several notable improvements to his performance. Leiter's 16.6% K-BB and 41.9% groundball rate are both career highs. He may not be excellent at the moment, but the growth in his arsenal is there.
Also, Leiter's past two games are promising. He has 16 strikeouts and a 2.95 xERA across 11 1/3 IP. While this is an extremely small sample, and his walks continue to be a problem, he has the stuff to get excited about any steps in the right direction.
Leiter will be tested against a strong Astros offense ranking fourth in wRC+ against RHP, but his whole season has been a test. He has faced the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Pirates, and Athletics (in Sacramento).
Meanwhile, Spencer Arrighetti's early-season performance is hollow. His ERA is backed by a 5.38 xERA, 4.64 xFIP, and a 4.52 SIERA. The Rangers' offense is not a powerhouse (104 wRC+ vs RHP), but it is good enough to serve regression on Arrighetti.
Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-108)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Picks
Blake Snell returned last week, and it was shaky. He allowed six hits, two walks, and four earned runs in three innings pitched. This was his first big-league start of the season after a nagging shoulder issue kept him on the IL through the first two months.
Even if Snell is better today, he is not fully ramped up. Between the minors and majors this season, he has 11 IP in four outings.
This could leave the Dodgers in a pickle if he cannot complete at least four innings. They are potentially down multiple key relievers for today, with Tanner Scott and Edgardo Henriquez pitching twice in the past three days.
The Angels rank tenth against LHP this season by wRC+ and could cut Snell's start shorter than expected.
Furthermore, Angels' starter Jack Kochanowicz has issues of his own. He has a 3.97 ERA backed by a 4.99 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA. His 3.5% K-BB is the worst among all qualified starters. This will not help against a Dodgers offense ranking second in wRC+ vs. RHP.
With Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts back in the lineup after an off day Thursday, Kochanowicz should give way to one of the league's worst bullpens sooner than anticipated.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-110)
New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks
The Mets will start former Yankees reliever Clay Holmes against his old teammates in their series opener at home.
Holmes has been stellar in 2026. His 1.86 ERA is seventh-best among all starters.
While significant luck has factored into an ERA two full runs below his peripheral metrics, Holmes should remain a valuable starter, even with expected regression.
Speaking of regression, we may see some tonight against a Yankees offense ranking fourth in wRC+ against RHP. However, we are not taking the over on Holmes' earned runs (though, over 2.5 ER at +105 is not bad).
He has not allowed more than two runs in a given start this season, but he has given up more than two walks three times.
Who knows Holmes and his tendencies better than his former team? The Yankees also rank first against RHP with a 12.1% walk rate.
If Holmes continues suppressing runs as he has all season, he should pitch deep enough to crack today's walk prop.
Pick: Clay Holmes Over 2.5 Walks (+120)
San Francisco Giants vs Athletics Picks
Our final cross-town matchup of this series is the Giants vs. the Athletics tonight. This bet is largely a short on Athletics' starter Aaron Civale.
Civale is not a terrible pitcher, but he is not a good one, and his home park is one of the most difficult environments to pitch in the major leagues. Sacramento is a minor-league park parading as an MLB stadium due to the A's transition to Las Vegas.
With minor league dimensions, fly ball pitchers struggle excessively in Sacramento. Civale and his extreme 46.4% rate have not been punished yet, but it is coming. He has only made three starts at home, with a horrible 8.2% K-BB and just one HR allowed.
While Tyler Mahle should struggle in the same environment today, he is at least posting a career-high 47.1% groundball rate and pitching very well across his past four starts. Mahle has a 3.52 ERA, 2.70 xERA, and a 4.04 xFIP in this span.
Also, the Athletics' bullpen is taxed. Four of their high-leverage relievers have pitched twice in the past three days, with two relievers off back-to-back games.
They may have no choice but to leave Civale in if/when he struggles, while the Giants have fresh high-leverage arms and a majority of their relievers available.
Pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+116)
Kevork Mahserejian's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, May 15
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Texas Rangers Moneyline (-108)
- Dodgers/Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
- Clay Holmes Over 2.5 Walks (+120)
- San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+116)
