Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, June 3.
Minion is an absurd 37-25-2 in his six Leadoff appearances this season, good for 19.1 units of profit! And he's got 18 more picks across 10 games for Wednesday.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, June 3
- Marlins Score First (-145)
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (-140)
- Rays vs Tigers NRFI (-128)
- Rays ML (-146)
- Twins ML (-154)
- Byron Buxton Over 2.5 HRR (+115)
- Byron Buxton Home Run (+285)
- Mets vs Mariners F5 Under (+110)
- Phillies F5 Spread (+110)
- Cristopher Sanchez to Record a Win (-147)
- Braves ML (-142)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 TB (+115)
- Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Pirates vs Astros NRFI (-136)
- Pirates vs Astros F5 Under (+108)
- Angels F5 Spread (-120)
- Dodgers Spread (-115)
- Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR (-150)
Marlins vs Nationals Picks
Max Meyer looks well on his way to his first All-Star appearance. He’s running a 2.97 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP across his first 11 starts.
Meanwhile, Andrew Alvarez is running an ERA over four, although he’s only pitched 16 innings.
I’d like to back the Fish, but we don’t have a ton of data on Alvarez, so I’ll attack this game in a slightly unique fashion.
The Marlins are playing on the road behind the better starting pitcher, so I think it’s very likely they draw first blood in this matchup.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Otto Lopez gets the party started for the Fighting Fish. He’s batting .483 with a 223 wRC+ against lefties this season.
Picks: Marlins Score First | Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (+140)
Rays vs Tigers Picks
Nick Martinez is having a career year, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 67 frames. He looks like one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Meanwhile, Troy Melton has seemingly found his spot in Detroit’s rotation, having allowed just two earned runs on eight hits across his two starts (12 ⅔ IP).
While he should get off to a hot start, I wonder if Melton is better suited as an opener, as he was last year. Martinez already has seven quality starts this season, so I imagine he gives the Rays a larger edge as the game progresses.
Picks: NRFI | Rays ML (+192)
White Sox vs Twins Picks
Taj Bradley will start for the Twins on Wednesday, while Erick Fedde will start for the Sox.
Bradley’s having a great year, boasting a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his first 10 starts — he’s only allowed 20 earned runs across 56 frames.
He’s always had the pedigree — and the triple-digit four-seam fastball — but his vertical release has helped him disguise his off-speed pitches better, including his cutter, splitter, and curveball, among others.
Meanwhile, Fedde is not having a great year, boasting a 5.40 ERA across 11 starts. He’s trending in the opposite direction, and I expect him to struggle against Minnesota’s young, high-upside lineup.
The Twins have a starting-pitching edge and home-field advantage. Plus, they’re healthier, as Munetaka Murakami just hit the 15-day IL with a hamstring strain (he’ll be out four to six weeks). Given he’s slugged 20 homers with a .938 OPS, I imagine the White Sox will slump in his absence.
Therefore, I’ll bank on the Twins winning this one.
Furthermore, I think Byron Buxton is due for a big day. He’s been one of the sport’s best over the first 60 games, having already whacked 17 home runs (fourth-most among MLB players).
Fedde throws his fastballs (sinker and cutter) around 90 MPH, and Buxton should hop all over one of them — he’s slugging .633 against fastballs this year.
Picks: Twins ML (-154) | Byron Buxton Over 2.5 HRR (+115) | Byron Buxton Home Run (+285)
Mets vs Mariners Picks
I think this is going to be a great pitcher’s duel.
Yes, Freddy Peralta has looked slightly underwhelming, but he’s still got as high a ceiling as anyone.
Meanwhile, George Kirby might be Seattle’s Ace by season’s end. He’s been pretty effective through 12 starts (3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), but his underlying numbers suggest positive regression (.343 xERA, 2.98 botERA).
Ultimately, these two are some of baseball’s best when pitching to their potential. And I think both will revert to their elite form on Wednesday.
I’m betting that runs won’t come easily in this one, especially at T-Mobile Park, which is already a pitcher’s paradise (92 Park Factor over the past three seasons, lowest in MLB).
Picks: F5 Under (+110)
Padres vs Phillies Picks
Cristopher Sanchez has lived up to the off-season hype — he’s only behind Paul Skenes on the Cy Young odds boards. He’s running a 1.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 12 starts while ranking second among all MLB pitchers in strikeouts (95).
While Sanchez is posting career-best numbers, Walker Buehler is trending the opposite way, running a 4.88 ERA across 11 outings with just 43 strikeouts over 52 innings.
The Phillies will have a massive starting pitching edge in this one, and I’m looking to bet on Sanchez capitalizing.
Picks: Phillies F5 Spread (+110) | Cristopher Sanchez to Record a Win (-147)
Braves vs Blue Jays Picks
The Braves are likely to be a pretty big home favorite behind Grant Holmes, who has looked solid across his first 11 starts (3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 57 IP).
However, Patrick Corbin doesn’t look like a pumpkin anymore. He’s made massive strides this season behind a new-look arsenal (more changeups, fewer sinkers, fewer sliders, fewer cutters).
That said, the Braves will be a tough out. They’re loaded top-to-bottom, ranking among the top two MLB lineups in average, home runs, hits, and RBIs.
I expect the Braves to pull this one out.
I also expect Ronald Acuna Jr. to be a big part of that.
In 34 lifetime head-to-head at-bats against Corbin, Acuna has smacked 11 hits, two doubles, and a home run. Acuna is also white-hot, hitting .500 with five dingers over the past four games.
Pick: Braves ML | Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+217)
Athletics vs Cubs Picks
It’s been an up-and-down season for Colin Rea (4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), and I’m not sure he’ll turn it around on Wednesday.
The A’s mash. They’re young and versatile 1-through-9.
Rea’s batted-ball profile is pretty ugly (12% barrel rate, 44% hard-hit rate), which should give Nick Kurtz some opportunities to do damage.
While he started slow, Kurtz has turned it on recently, boasting a 204 wRC+ since May 10. Meanwhile, Rea has pretty stark splits (.340 wOBA vs. LHBs, .301 wOBA vs. RHBs).
Additionally, much of Rea’s arsenal is predicated on the ability to force chases, and Kurtz is uber-patient in the box. That might force Rea to throw a fastball behind in the count, and things could implode from there — Southpaws are slugging .542 against Rea’s four-seam.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 HRR (-147)
Pirates vs Astros Picks
This is a fun interleague clash.
Paul Skenes starts for the Pirates, and he needs no introduction.
However, Spencer Arrighetti has been surprisingly good, boasting a 1.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through eight starts. He’s a dark-horse Cy Young candidate if things keep trending this direction.
I’m a believer in both starters, and thus will be betting on a pitcher’s duel.
Pick: NRFI | F5 Under (+170)
Rockies vs Angels Picks
Walbert Urena is off to a stellar rookie season, boasting a 2.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across his first eight starts. He had a few rough starts in April, but he allowed just six earned runs across 33 frames in May, posting a 1.64 ERA with three quality starts during the stretch.
Urena is a power pitcher. He’s got a triple-digit fastball, a near-triple-digit sinker, and a sharp changeup. I like how he uses his pitch mix — it keeps hitters off balance.
I’m not so high on Michael Lorenzen.
He’s been around for a decade, and he’s gotten worse every single year. He’s running a 7.22 ERA and 1.90 WHIP through 12 starts in 2026. He can’t strike anyone out (career-low 15% rate), and he walks a few too many batters for my liking.
The Angels have some talent in the lineup. They should get an early lead behind Urena.
Pick: Angels F5 Spread (-120)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Picks
Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound on Wednesday.
He’s actually taken a slight step back at the plate, but he’s more than made up for it with his performances on the mound. He’s running a 0.82 ERA and WHIP through nine starts. He’s allowed to adjust five earned runs across 55 frames with 61 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Zac Gallen might be toast. He’s running career-worst metrics across the board, including a 5.16 ERA, 88 Stuff+ rating, and 16% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers should roll the Snakes.
I’ll also be betting on breakout outfielder Andy Pages.
In nine lifetime head-to-head at-bats against Gallen, Pages has three hits, including a home run. He’s also white-hot, leading the league in RBIs behind 13 homers and a .538 slugging.
Pick: Dodgers Spread | Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR (+139)
Ryan Minion's Best Bets for Wednesday, June 3
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- Marlins Score First (-145)
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (-140)
- Rays vs Tigers NRFI (-128)
- Rays ML (-146)
- Twins ML (-154)
- Byron Buxton Over 2.5 HRR (+115)
- Byron Buxton Home Run (+285)
- Mets vs Mariners F5 Under (+110)
- Phillies F5 Spread (+110)
- Cristopher Sanchez to Record a Win (-147)
- Braves ML (-142)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 TB (+115)
- Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Pirates vs Astros NRFI (-136)
- Pirates vs Astros F5 Under (+108)
- Angels F5 Spread (-120)
- Dodgers Spread (-115)
- Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR (-150)
