Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for the 4th of July.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Pirates Over 5.5 Team Total -106, 0.53u (Bet to -125)
- D.Rasmussen Over 5.5 Strikeouts -156, 1u (Bet to 6.5)
- Rays (F5) -118, 0.59u (Bet to -120)
- Mets/Braves Under 8.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 8)
- Giants/Rockies Over 11.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 12)
- Royals (F5) 128, 0.5u (Bet to 120)
- Marlins Over 5.5 Team Total -113, 0.57u (Bet to -120)
- Brewers (F5) -158, 1u (Bet to -175)
- Brewers Over 4.5 Team Total -132, 1u (Bet to -155)
Pirates @ Nationals Picks
Lets start with the fact that they’re playing an 11am game on July 4th in Washington and it’s going to start in the upper 90s, if the forecast is correct.
We’re looking at anywhere from a 5-10% bump to a run environment that already plays 2% more run friendly than average.
Scheduled umpire Bruce Drekman (-1.4% via BARTOLO) brings a little bit of that back, but it should still be a prolific hitting environment on Saturday morning.
Did I mention that they’re playing this game at 11am?
Baseball players have night time body clocks and are unlikely to play great defense in the boiling heat of the early morning and they’re going to have to play a lot of defense for a pitcher with a 14.1 K% and 33.5 GB%, who’s allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE (46.7 HardHit%).
Zack Littell doesn’t have a single estimator below five and is allowing LHBs a .406 wOBA and even worse .436 xwOBA.
He may get a bit of a break with Endy Rodriguez catching on Friday night because he may only be facing five LHBs in the Pittsburgh projected lineup.
Still, that projected lineup has a 118 wRC+ against RHP this year and 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Pirates have had one of the best offenses in the league this year.
The Washington defense projects at about 8 FRV (Fielding Run Value), but they are a below average defense on a team level and again, it’s going to be 11am in the extreme heat.
The Pirates are a good base running team with the same projected lineup accumulating 5 BRR (Base Running Runs).
The final piece is an atrocious Washington bullpen with a 4.91 FIP, 4.76 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA over the last 30 days. It is also the 30th ranked bullpen by BARTOLO with a 4.98 wFIP.
I don’t believe I’ve played a team total this high this year, but there’s every reason to believe the Pirates should hit at least six runs on Saturday morning.
Picks: Pirates Over 5.5 Team Total -106, 0.53u (Bet to -125)
Rays @ Astros Picks
Limited to five starts due to injury, Hunter Brown, so far, has the highest strikeout rate of his career (30.2%) and has allowed just two barrels (3.4%), but has also walked 12.3% of the batters he’s faced with at least two in each start.
That supports a great xERA (2.68) and solid contact neutral indicators (3.73 SIERA, 3.61 xFIP), but the pitch modeling, perhaps the most telling over smaller samples, leaves much to be desired, at least on the PitchingBot end of things.
PB has never really liked Brown, issuing him grades above four for each season of his career, but this year’s 4.64 Bot ERA is a career worst
The biggest issues is in his fourth most frequently thrown pitch, a changeup (9.6%), which has dropped from a 50 PB grade to 42 and also a 95 Pitching+ to 67, Brown’s only below average offering by Pitching+ grading too.
Neither system appears to like the pitch for pure stuff or his command of the pitch.
I have Brown more in line with his SIERA and xFIP right now, which is still a very good pitcher.
However, Drew Rasmussen may be the most under-rated pitcher in the league. While most pitchers aren’t going to be as good as a 2.45 ERA, his 2.93 (PitchingBot) to 3.17 (SIERA) estimator range tell you exactly who he’s been and for me, that’s nearly two-thirds of a run better than Brown.
More recently, Rasmussen has been even better, allowing just eight runs over his last 44 innings with a 25.9 K-BB% and just four barrels (33 HardHit%). That’s a 2.41 xERA and 2.80 xFIP over this span.
Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him in 2026, but he has completely dominated RHBs (.169 wOBA, .235 xwOBA) and the Astros clearly don’t have the LHBs in quantity or quality, aside Yordan Alvarez, to keep them out of a very difficult situation.
Rasmussen has struck out 28.9% of RHBs faced this season and I project him to see 23 total batters on Saturday, 16 of which will probably be right-handed. The first 23 batters in that projected lineup also average a 22.9 K% against RHP this year.
Now we’re approaching a matchup strikeout rate of 30%, which is before we even get to the 6% boost both the park and umpire (Alex Tosi) separately offer.
FanDuel is currently offering 5.5 strikeouts at -156 to the over, which I’m endorsing risking a full unit on, but I also wouldn’t mind laddering to 8 or 9. This is a potential high spot for Rasmussen. Should the main prop move to 6.5 with a better price by the time you read this, I’m completely on board with that too.
We’re not done yet though.
That’s because a red hot Tampa Bay team has a 113 wRC+ against RHP this year (through Thursday), while the projected lineup has exactly the same results.
With two strong edges in the most important aspects of this game (starting pitching and offense) and at least a comparable defense, I’m slightly higher than the market on the Rays F5 (-118), though I wouldn’t play it above -120.
I’m opting to avoid bullpens, which are very similarly ranked via BARTOLO, though Houston has slightly better metrics over the last month.
Picks: D.Rasmussen Over 5.5 Strikeouts -156, 1u (Bet to 6.5), Rays (F5) -118, 0.59u (Bet to -120)
Mets @ Braves Picks
I cashed this particular play on Friday night and am going back to the well for some of the same reasons.
The run environment in Atlanta used to run above average, but has diminished to 2% below average in the latest Statcast Park Factors (three year rolling). Weather may get it back to even, if that, but even if not, Alfonso Marquez could push this into positive territory.
However, we have two very similar left-handed pitchers (in terms of mechanics) each facing an offense with exactly a 94 wRC+ vs LHP through Thursday.
In fact, it might surprise you to learn the projected Mets lineup (via BARTOLO) has averaged a 103 wRC+ against southpaws this year, while Atlanta’s has average a 96 wRC+.
What’s more, the visitors' projected lineup has a 97 wRC+ over the last 30 days that’s 34 points better than the struggling home team’s.
Moving back to those left-handed pitchers, we know who Chris Sale is. His 2.56 FIP to 3.20 xERA estimator range once again merits Cy Young consideration, should he remain healthy and performing to this level in the second half.
A couple of years ago, Sean Manaea dropped his arm angle, inspired by Sale, and rode that alteration to one of the best seasons of his career, but he’s struggled with injuries, velocity and performance since then.
However, Manaea has regained enough of that velocity and performance to be reinserted into the rotation. He did drop back down nearly a mph to 90.5 in his fourth and most recent start, but that’s still a full mph better than the 89.5 mph he was throwing through his first five appearances of the season.
Though he still sports a 4.71 ERA, Manaea has worked his way back to estimators mostly below four, yet does retain a 4.07 xFIP and 4.06 xERA, both of which are much better over the last month (3.79 xFIP, .303 xwOBA allowed).
In fact, the only thing that has not improved over the last month is his pitch modeling, as his 4.39 Bot ERA and 97 Pitching+ are very similar to his season marks.
A strong Atlanta defense has been almost exactly as good as the New York one has been bad, neutralizing that part of the game for our purposes.
Both bullpens are top third of the league units whether it be by BARTOLO rankings or last 30 day estimators.
All of that gets to a total I believe to be far too high, considering the quality of the pitching (both starting and bullpen) and inefficiency of the offenses (especially against LHP), despite the hitter friendly umpire.
Picks: Under 8.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 8)
Giants @ Rockies Picks
I played a lot of unders at Coors Field last season very successfully and continued on that path early this year.
That’s because even a run environment 25% above average couldn’t push the Rockies to a league average offense.
This year…well, the Rockies are still one of the worst team in the league, but at least the offense doesn’t share nearly equally in the blame.
They still haven’t been good against LHP. Their projected lineup against Robbie Ray averages an 89 wRC+ against LHP this year, but they’ve also averaged a 112 wRC+ over the last month and last season, their wRC+ was in the 70s all around.
They’re also facing Ray, who despite a 3.39 ERA, doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half.
What he does have is a 10.9 BB%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE and an absurd .233 BABIP, nearly 60 points below his career rate. Even the 77 LOB% that’s in line with his career numbers can be questioned with a career worst 20.7 K%.
Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA more than 30 points above their wOBA against Ray this year.
Speaking of pitcher’s out-running their underlying peripherals, Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.80 ERA that’s below all of his estimators with only his PitchingBot ERA (4.90) below five.
He’s the rare pitcher with a higher barrel rate (14%) than strikeout rate (13.4%). (There's another one on this slate, who we'll get to later.)
Sugano will be facing a projected lineup exceeding a 130 wRC+ over the last month and against RHP this year.
On top of Coors increasing scoring by 25%, scheduled umpire Scott Barry could add nearly 2% more, while the weather is forecasted to be anywhere from neutral to an additional 10% bump, depending on your source.
Even disregarding the weather, I’m favoring the over here.
The Giants add a poor defense to one of the worst bullpens in baseball (26th ranked by BARTOLO, 23rd worst estimators L30 days.
While the Rockies may at least be neutral defensively, their bullpen has been even worse (29th, 27th).
This is another play I cashed on Friday night with 17 runs in the 8th inning as of this writing. I'm going right back to this well for similar reasons plus even worse pitching.
Picks: Over 11.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 12)
Phillies @ Royals Picks
I still maintain that the Phillies’ offense is over-rated. There’s nothing more average than their projected lineup’s 100 wRC+ against RHP and even that is misleading because it’s been three guys (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh) above 140 and nobody else above 90.
Then it gets even worse when they hit the road. It’s the same three guys at 120+ and nobody else even reaching 80. The Phillies have a team 77 wRC+ on the road.
Kansas City’s projected lineup with their 101 wRC+ against LHP, 102 RC+ at home and 105 wRC+ over the last 30 days has been at least as good.
While Michael Wacha has a 3.31 ERA that’s a half run better than Jesus Luzardo’s 3.88, I’m under no delusion that Wacha is the better pitcher. Underlying indicators give that matchup to Luzardo by over three-quarters of a run.
However, the Phillies also add one of the worst defenses in the league whether it’s their team -15 Runs Prevented and -19 OAA or their projected lineup’s -21 FRV. Kansas City has a significant edge here just by being average, although a lot of that is Bobby Witt Jr. being maybe the best defender in the game.
This is enough to get me to a reasonable doubt that the Phillies should be highly favored. I’ll take the home team F5 (+128 FD), where I can skirt one of the worst bullpens in the league, but wouldn’t find enough value too much lower.
Picks: Royals (F5) 128, 0.5u (Bet to +120)
Marlins @ Athletics Picks
Remember way up top, where I told you Pittsburgh's 5.5 was the highest team total I’ve played all year? Well, I’m going to do it again on the same slate.
Let’s start with the 21% park boost and recognize that Aaron Civale’s 5.05 ERA is within one-third of a run of his SIERA (5.08), xFIP (5.19), FIP (5.36) and xERA (5.32).
He faces a Miami offense with a 99 wRC+ on the road and perfectly average 100 on against RHP, while their projected lineup has a 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 116 against RHP this year.
Add in a bad defense (-18 Runs Prevented, -20 OAA both 2nd worst in MLB) and once all the match is done, the only thing that keeps this below seven runs is a moderately competent bullpen that ranks middle of the league both by BARTOLO and last 30 day estimators.
This one is quick and simple because there’s not much to it, but the math gets us to six runs more often than not, but this is another one I wouldn’t play too much higher.
Picks: Marlins Over 5.5 Team Total -113, 0.57u (Bet to -120)
Brewers @ Diamondbacks Picks
My favorite pitcher to pick on this year has been Merrill Kelly. Nothing personal against the guy, but his 5.84 ERA is more than a run and a half below his 7.55 xERA and the 14% Barrels/BBE with just a 13 K% is the reason why. (This is the other pitcher I was talking about above.)
With just a 3.9 K-BB%, Kelly doesn’t have an estimator below five. As hard as it may be to believe, the actual results appear to be spot on. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season.
Brandon Woodruff has only taken the mound eight times this year. And all eight times he’s put it back.
But seriously, his 2.59 ERA runs fairly close to a 2.83 xERA, while additional contact neutral estimators run closer to four, mostly because of his 25.9 GB%.
Some estimators inherently consider fly balls bad, but when you generate as many pop ups (eight) as barrels with a 34.9 HardHit% and 20 K-BB%, you’ll probably be fine.
I’ve got Woodruff more than two runs better than Kelly right now.
I also have the Milwaukee offense 25 points of wRC+ better than Arizona. They have a 27 point team edge against RHP. The projected offense is 34 points better against RHP and 31 points over the last 30 days.
Both teams' Home/Road 98 wRC+ is even, but even then the Milwaukee projected lineup is 28 points ahead.
Arizona does have a defensive advantage, by 23 FRV considering projected lineups, but bullpens are a bit trickier. BARTOLO sees a 13 team and 0.3 run wFIP gap in favor of the Diamondbacks, but the Brewers have estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) 0.19 runs better over the last 30 days.
For that last reason, I'll limit our first unit to F5, but regardless, I expect the Brewers to score often and find value in team total (4.5 -132) too.
Picks: Brewers (F5) -158, 1u (Bet to -175), Brewers Over 4.5 Team Total -132, 1u (Bet to -155)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for the 4th of July
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- Pirates Over 5.5 Team Total -106, 0.53u (Bet to -125)
- D.Rasmussen Over 5.5 Strikeouts -156, 1u (Bet to 6.5)
- Rays (F5) -118, 0.59u (Bet to -120)
- Mets/Braves Under 8.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 8)
- Giants/Rockies Over 11.5 (-122), 1.22u (Bet to 12)
- Royals (F5) 128, 0.5u (Bet to 120)
- Marlins Over 5.5 Team Total -113, 0.57u (Bet to -120)
- Brewers (F5) -158, 1u (Bet to -175)
- Brewers Over 4.5 Team Total -132, 1u (Bet to -155)
