Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, July 12.
Through 15 MLB Leadoff columns on Wednesday and Friday, Ryan Minion has provided 209 MLB picks with a 111-95-3 record, good for +32 units of profit.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Brewers vs Pirates NRFI
- Brewers vs Pirates F5 Under
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
- Luis Garcia Over 1.5 HRR
- Phillies vs Tigers NRFI
- Reds ML
- Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 TB
- Michael Harris Over 2.5 HRR
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Over
- Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Single
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
Brewers vs Pirates Picks
Author's Note: Jacob Misiorowski has been scratched. Robert Gasser will start in his place. I now prefer the Pirates F5 ML.
The Brewers and Pirates will duke it out in the day's premier pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes.
Skenes has taken a slight step backward this year, though those numbers are skewed by Oneil Cruz’s two brutal mistakes in center field on Opening Day, which led to Skenes allowing five earned runs over ⅔ of an inning.
That said, Skenes has returned to his dominant ways and remains one of the best pitchers in the sport.
Meanwhile, Misiorowski has ascended to superstardom, leading all qualified starting pitchers in ERA (1.62), WHIP (0.76), and strikeouts (167).
I expect a pitcher’s duel between these two on Sunday and will be betting accordingly.
Picks: NRFI | F5 Under
Royals vs Orioles Picks
The Orioles will host the Royals on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Shane Baz will take the mound for Baltimore, while Seth Lugo will start for Kansas City.
In a matchup between two struggling starters — both Baz and Lugo have ERAs over 4.20 this season — I’m looking to bet on some player props.
Specifically, I’m looking at backing Bobby Witt Jr., who’s already had some success against Baz.
In eight prior head-to-head plate appearances, Witt Jr. has recorded two hits, including a home run.
Baz relies pretty heavily on his four-seam fastball (33% usage), and it’s been bashed around this season (.348 xwOBA allowed, 17% whiff rate). He’s lost command of his best weapon, and thus, his swing-and-miss stuff.
Thus, this is a great spot to back Witt Jr. given his plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills, fastball power, and speed on the basepaths.
He’s had a slightly inconsistent season, but I think he’ll have a big day in this matchup.
Picks: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB | Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
Yankees vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals and Yankees will square off on Sunday afternoon at Nationals Park in D.C. to conclude a three-game interleague clash. Will Warren will start for New York, while Cade Cavalli will start for Washington (making just his second start back from suspension).
Cavalli has been underrated this season (2.0 fWAR, 3.88 ERA, 3.62 xFIP). The Boston start where he got suspended is a good example — Cavalli tossed seven innings of one-hit, shutout ball with 13 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Warren has been slightly underwhelming (4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), and I’m looking to fade him in this matchup.
I think Luis Garcia Jr. matches up well with New York’s righty.
Garcia is on a tear in March, batting .393 and slugging .857 with a 1.290 OPS. He hasn’t been the biggest power hitter in the past, but he’s smashed four home runs this month.
Warren is a sinkerballer (28% clip), but he hasn’t forced enough weak contact with the pitch (.346 xwOBA allowed). He’s also struggled to find the zone with his breaking stuff, specifically his sweeper.
Warren also has natural platoon splits (career .347 wOBA allowed to lefties, .315 to righties), while Garcia smashes right-handed pitching (148 wRC+ vs RHPs, 60 vs LHPs).
I think Warren is bound to leave a sinker or breaking pitch in the zone against Garcia, and that’ll spell disaster for New York.
Picks: Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
Phillies vs Tigers Picks
The Tigers will host the Phillies on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Comerica Park in Detroit.
I’m very excited for this pitching matchup between Zach Wheeler and Tarik Skubal.
Skubal has taken a slight step back this year — which was bound to happen after back-to-back Cy Young awards — but I think he’ll round into form in the second half. He’s still running a 3.06 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Wheeler is still shoving, running a 2.28 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across 14 outings.
I expect runs to come at a premium in this matchup, especially early.
Picks: NRFI
Cubs vs Reds Picks
The Reds and Cubs will duke it out on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Matthew Boyd will take the mound for Chicago, while Andrew Abbott will start for Cincinnati.
Abbott has been fine this year, running a 3.92 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Boyd has been slightly worse, with a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP — although he’s pitched well over his past few starts.
That said, I ultimately think Cincinnati has the advantage in this matchup.
Abbott is really good against Southpaws (career .277 wOBA allowed), which will really help him neutralize the three or four lefties in Chicago’s lineup. For example, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a lefty, and he’s 0-for-11 lifetime against Abbott.
Meanwhile, Boyd will have to face off against eight right-handed hitters, and he has severe splits (career .332 wOBA allowed to righties, .284 wOBA allowed to lefties).
Picks: Reds ML
A's vs White Sox Picks
The White Sox will host the Athletics on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Rate Field in Chicago. JT Ginn will take the mound for the A’s, while Noah Schultz will start for Chicago.
And Schultz enters this matchup in atrocious form. He’s running a 6.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 10 starts this season.
Schultz throws a lot of fastballs, including sinkers, four-seamers, and cutters. He throws the sinker the most (25% usage), but it’s been his least effective pitch (7% whiff rate, 5% strikeout rate, .425 xwOBA allowed). His main secondary offering is a wipeout sweeper that can miss bats (32% whiff), but can also get hit hard (.467 xwOBA allowed).
I think Shea Langeliers matches up really well with Schultz’s arsenal, given his massive pull-side power, making him a big home-run threat against left-handed pitching (177 wRC+ against lefties this season with eight home runs and five doubles across 100 at-bats).
Picks: Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 TB
Braves vs Cardinals Picks
The Cardinals are set to host the Braves on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game homestand at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Dustin May will take the mound for the Cards, while JR Ritchie will start for Atlanta.
May has really struggled this season (4.55 ERA), and I don’t think he’ll fare well against Atlanta’s contact-oriented, hard-hitting lineup.
Ritchie has also struggled, running a 4.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across 10 appearances this season.
With how bad these two starters have been, I think it’s a great game to target some player props.
Although he’s just 1-for-6 off May in prior head-to-head encounters, I think this is a great spot to back Michael Harris.
May relies heavily on his cutter and sweeper, while Harris hits both of those pitches quite well (.363 xwOBA against sweepers, .511 xwOBA against cutters).
Additionally, May has pretty significant splits (.351 wOBA allowed to lefties, .234 wOBA allowed to righties), while the Southpaw Harris has been smashing right-handed pitching this season (136 wRC+).
I think Harris will punish May’s preferred pitches with hard line drives, stuffing the stat sheet in what should be a high-scoring matchup.
Picks: Michael Harris Over 2.5 HRR
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Picks
Author's Note: Zac Gallen has been scratched. Mitch Bratt will start in his place. This doesn't change much for my handicap, so I still will be betting my three picks.
The Dodgers are set to host their divisional foe, the Arizona Diamondbacks, on Sunday afternoon at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Emmett Sheehan will start for Los Angeles, while Zac Gallen will start for Arizona.
Both these pitchers have struggled. Sheehan is running a 4.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 77 frames, while Gallen is on pace for a career-worst season behind a 6.34 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
With these two poor pitchers on the mound, this is another great matchup to target some player props.
I think Andy Pages will have a massive day at the plate against Gallen. In 12 prior head-to-head at-bats, Pages has four hits, including a 400-foot moonshot.
Gallen relies primarily on his four-seamer, but that pitch no longer has the same effectiveness (7% whiff rate, 11% strikeout rate, .439 xwOBA allowed). Pages is running a 48% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer this season, and he’s got the raw power to make Gallen pay.
Additionally, I also think Ketel Marte will have a big day against Sheehan — Marte has already homered off Sheehan in the past.
Sheehan also relies on his four-seam fastball (43% usage rate), which Marte absolutely smashes (.556 xSLG, .391 xwOBA against it this season).
Behind poor performances from these two starting pitchers, I’m banking on a high-scoring ballgame with big performances from these two star hitters.
Picks: Over 9.5 | Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR | Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB
Blue Jays vs Padres Picks
The Blue Jays and Padres will square off on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game series at Petco Park in San Diego. German Marquez will start for the Friars, while Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto.
Both starters have struggled, but I’m isolating Fernando Tatis Jr.’s matchup with Gausman.
Gausman hasn’t been himself this season (4.32 ERA), while Tatis is 8-for-20 lifetime off Toronto’s Ace, with two homers.
Gausman throws mostly four-seam fastballs and splitters, which play off each other. But I think Tatis can handle those pitches, given he has in the past.
Tatis has been a singles machine this year, with a whopping 78 (sixth-most among MLB hitters). But I also think he can take Gausman yard once again — hopefully, Gausman hangs a splitter in one of their matchups.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Single | Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, July 12
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- Brewers vs Pirates NRFI
- Brewers vs Pirates F5 Under
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
- Luis Garcia Over 1.5 HRR
- Phillies vs Tigers NRFI
- Reds ML
- Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 TB
- Michael Harris Over 2.5 HRR
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Over
- Andy Pages Over 1.5 HRR
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Single
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
