Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, July 17.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-142)
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-106)
- Nationals/Athletics Over 10.5 Total Runs (+104)
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs
Bailey Ober and Colin Rea face off in the battle of middling RHP at Wrigley Field. The wind is blowing out at 8 MPH on a hot day in Chicago.
This would typically be a good opportunity for bettors to take the over, but Rea is a much different pitcher at home than on the road.
- Rea at home: 2.72 ERA, 12.1% K-BB, 1.26 WHIP, 4.23 xFIP
- Rea on road: 6.45 ERA, 5.1% K-BB, 1.61 WHIP, 5.33 xFIP
He is still not a "good" pitcher, even at home, but the Cubs starter does well enough by limiting walks and inducing ground balls. Meanwhile, Ober is one of the league's most extreme flyball pitchers. His 33.3% FB this season is almost identical to his 32.3% career rate.
Ober returned from an extended stint on the Injured List due to elbow issues and pitched a gem against the Guardians on July 9. Unfortunately, his matchup against the Cubs will not be as soft.
Chicago has a 105 wrC+ as a team this season against RHP and the second-best offense in the past 30 days (126 wRC+). The Twins are fourth in this span with a 123 wRC+, but they just lost superstar Byron Buxton again to an IL stint.
Twins' starting catcher Ryan Jeffers is healthy now, but this leaves the switch-hitting Victor Caratini on the bench. Rea is much worse against left-handed hitters than righties, and Caratini has been a significant offensive contributor since June (164 wRC+).
Furthermore, the Cubs' bullpen ranks as average, while the Twins have the second-worst by team xFIP and ERA.
Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-142)
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
This is a dream matchup for Troy Melton. The Tigers' breakout starter should continue his run of excellence tonight in Anaheim.
Melton's 1.82 ERA is very lucky with his 2.97 xERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 3.93 SIERA, but he dominates right-handed hitting.
- Melton vs RHH: 24.7% K-BB (0 walks allowed), 0.65 WHIP, 2.68 xFIP
- Melton vs LHH: 10.3% K-BB, 0.92 WHIP. 4.74 xFIP
The Angels' offense ranks 23rd against RHP and only has three lefties in their lineup, while their best hitters are all righties. Melton could have his best game of the season, even with Mike Trout back and healthy.
The Angels may not have the same luck with Reid Detmers. The early-season breakout is struggling lately. He has a 7.40 ERA, backed by a 6.18 xERA and a 4.47 xFIP in his past four starts. Detmers' season has been unlucky, but he is not giving himself room for positive regression.
Detroit's ninth-best 101 wRC+ against LHP could be enough to continue Detmers' run of poor outings.
Picks: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-106)
Washington Nationals vs Athletics
Cade Cavalli and Gage Jump are two promising young pitchers, both stuck on teams looking past 2026. Cavalli and Jump each have ERAs just below 4.00 and should be front-line starters for their respective organizations going forward.
Sadly, Sutter Field is a cruel mistress that may muddy these quality ERAs tonight. Jump is no stranger to the dangers of his minor league home park.
His 6.20 home ERA is well ahead of his 0.75 road ERA. Both averages are extreme in each split, but his road metrics beyond ERA are all better than home.
While Cade Cavalli has a better ERA and wOBA allowed on the road, his K% is lower, and his BB% is higher. Cavalli should come out cleaner than Jump, but his league-worst bullpen may continue hurting the team's chances.
With the Athletics offense ranking third in wRC+ at home (118 wRC+) and the Nationals offense ranking second-best against LHP (118 wRC+), there should be plenty of runs in Sacramento tonight.
Picks: Over 10.5 Total Runs (+104)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, July 17
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-142)
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-106)
- Nationals/Athletics Over 10.5 Total Runs (+104)
