Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, June 29.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Colton Cowser Homer (+490 on DK)
- Shane Baz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 on MGM)
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+492)
- Pirates vs. Phillies Over 8.5 (-110)
- Spencer Jones HR (+558)
- Dillon Dingler HR (+464)
- Spencer Torkelson HR (+377)
- Mets vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-102)
- Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+120)
- Twins vs. Astros Over 9 (-103)
- George Kirby Over 6.5 K (-115)
- Bolte Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+146)
- Athletics Moneyline (-105)
White Sox vs Orioles Picks
Sean Burke has quietly been a very solid starting pitcher for the White Sox going back to last year's All Star Break. In 17 starts, he has a 3.l87 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP on a very strong 17.7% K-BB%. K-BB% is king when predicting future pitcher outcomes, and he's well above the league average in that regard.
His problem has been the home run. He's given up six of those in the last four games. Eight of his 11 given up this year have been to left-handed bats, and he's getting ground balls under 40% of the time to both sides of the plate. But he's throwing like a confident pitcher. He has a 14:2 K:BB in his last two starts while piping strike after strike; only 29% of his pitches have gone for balls in these last two.
The issue for Burke is that this looks to be about the perfect matchup for the Orioles. Against righties in June, they've hit .244/.319/.420 with a .739 OPS and 26 runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homers. Their team barrel rate against right-handed pitchers is 8.9%, the seventh-best in the league.
That's my angle in this game. Dingers on the Orioles side. Three players on the O's have home run rates below 19 PA/HR against righties dating back to May 1st.
- Pete Alonso 12 HR in 165 PA (13.75 PA/HR)
- Colton Cowser 8 HR in 117 PA (14.6 PA/HR)
- Samuel Basallo 7 HR in 129 PA (18.4 PA/HR)
Gunnar Henderson can certainly go deep, and Jackson Holliday has been showing a little bit of power lately as well. So this is a scary spot for Burke. I'm not sure the best way to bet on it. I think Burke is likely to pile up 6-7 strikeouts and limit the walks, so it could be a pretty nice start for him in the ER department if the homers are solo ones. I don't want to go Burke over 2.5 earned runs because of that.
I'd like an Orioles over 1.5 team homers line if you can find it. But I don't see those lines out this early in the morning. I'll take Cowser as the guy with the best price on the O's side.
There's also a flag in my projection model indicating that Shane Baz is a little bit underpriced on strikeouts on MGM. The other books seem to have it right, but the Baz +105 price for over 5.5 strikeouts is a +EV bet according to my projection model's math.
Picks: Colton Cowser Homer (+490 on DK), Shane Baz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 on MGM)
Pirates vs. Phillies Picks
It's Braxton Ashcraft vs. Aaron Nola in the country's original capital tonight. And I'm excited for it. I'm a Pennsylvania kid, born and raised in Pittsburgh. So I've been having a good time watching this iteration of the Pirates team. Ashcraft is a particular delight to watch.
But does he have it in him to handle Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper 3-4 times? The numbers would say yes.
- Ashcraft vs. RHB: 22% K%, 4.6% BB%, .240 xwOBA
- Ashcraft vs. LHB: 31% K%, 6.4% BB%, .287 xwOBA
The approach to lefties is a bunch of four-seamers (36%) high in the zone and then a helping of curveballs (29%) and some sliders (19%). The curveball is a truly elite weapon for him against lefties. They haven't been able to do anything against the pitch with a .189 xwOBA allowed. However, his fastball is not great. It's been hit out of the yard five times on 288 pitches against lefties with a 47% FB%.
I'd expect Ashcraft to get hit in the air a couple of times by Schwarber/Harper.
One of my projection models' best markets this year has been batter doubles. I don't think you hear a lot of people recommending doubles props. But I'm going to do it. The best bet I have on this game is Bryce Harper over 0.5 doubles +492 on DraftKings.
THE BULLPENS
Let's talk about this, because it's an angle we can take. The Pirates have not had a good time holding leads late. They would have the league's best record if all games ended after the seventh inning. Instead, they're 42-42. The Phillies bullpen is much better, certainly a top five group in the league. The problem the Philies have tonight is that they have no lefties available. They could use Kyle Backhus for a third straight game (27 pitches Saturday, 8 on Sunday), but I'd say they're pretty unlikely to do that since they're opening a four-game set here.
This is huge for the Pirates. They have a team .776 OPS against righties and it's way down at .687 against lefties. With nine innings against righties, they'll score some runs. I think we'll get over the 8.5 in this one, but it might take all nine innings.
Picks: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+492), Over 8.5 (-110)
Tigers vs. Yankees Picks
Casey Mize vs. Ryan Weathers in the Bronx. I've been surprised at the results we've gotten from Casey Mize. A 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 58 innings, although it's come up a lot in the last two since he's given up seven of his 19 season ER in the last two starts.
The story in this game is home runs. Mize has a 6% HR/FB on the year. That's very lucky, and the park shift from Detroit to New York is doing him no favors at all there. Weathers has a high 22% HR/FB, so he's been a touch unlucky in that regard, but he's a fly ball pitcher who's given up a high 11.6% Brl% while pitching half of his games in Yankee Stadium. So he's asking for trouble.
If you want to pick a spot to make some home run parlays in, this is one to target. We have two fly ball pitchers in a small ballpark with some wind blowing out. That's all I've got for you there; I can't really pretend to know how to predict what Mize or Weathers will do. Mize is a splitter guy who dominates when he has it and really struggles when he doesn't. Weathers' only problem is homers; he's very good at K-BB% stuff, but that makes him tough to bet on besides picking some good prices for dingers against him.
The best prices I'm looking at will be my picks.
Picks: Spencer Jones HR +558, Dillon Dingler HR +464, Spencer Torkelson HR +377
Mets vs. Blue Jays Picks
We have Sean Manaea vs. Trey Yesavage in Toronto. My initial read on this one is that I like the pitchers. The Blue Jays have hit .219/.293/.358 against lefties this year. That's the second-lowest batting average and the third-lowest OPS.
Manaea has been stretched out again to be a starter for the Mets, throwing 80+ pitches in the last three. He has a 17.5% K-BB% since mid-May even as he's bulked up the pitch counts. His fastball and sweeper have all worked very well with xwOBA allowed under .270 on both. The guy is a good pitcher, and he's in a good groove right now.
On the other side is Trey Yesavage, who has had some command issues this year. He's at a 12% BB% with a 37.9% Ball%, and he's coming off a five-walk start against Houston. It's another splitter guy. Sometimes you have the splitter feel, sometimes you don't. And if he loses it, there's not much else to fall back on.
But we know he has huge upside. The SwStr% is very strong at 14.2%, and hitters have a ton of trouble squaring him up with a .269 xwOBA on the season. The Mets don't offer much offensive resistance, even though they are getting healthy, with both Soto and Lindor back in the lineup together.
The tiebreaker for me is the bullpens. It's always good to take a look at those grades. The Mets rank #7 and the Blue Jays #5 on the day according to our BARTOLO tool.
I think this could be a very quick and tidy game, and I like the under 8.5 we're getting.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-102)
Nationals vs. Red Sox Picks
The Nationals have Miles Mikolas listed here. They've done an opener a few times lately ahead of him. I don't think they expected to be in the hunt this late into the season, so they've had to try to do something other than to let Mikolas go out there for five innings and get shelled.
So you might see a lefty in there to start the game, but eventually the Red Sox will get some looks at Mikolas and his 4.54 wFIP. He's the #153 ranked SP according to BARTOLO. He's very bad and has very little business still being in the bigs, but I don't think you need me to prove that to you.
I ran the sims model over at MLB Data Warehouse, and the Red Sox come out as the heaviest favorite behind Ranger Suarez. They win this game 71% of the time in the sims, I've rarely seen a number like that. Suarez has been cruising right along with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He's given up two or fewer runs in four straight and has a sick 37:8 K:BB with no homers allowed in his last five starts.
We're getting a decent price on the Red Sox as well at -175. You can take the run line for +120. I'm all over Boston tonight. I'm sure you Red Sox fans reading this are shaking your head at my confidence after the season these guys have had, but it's a good spot for them tonight.
Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+120)
Twins vs. Astros Picks
This is my model's most confident O/U pick of the day, and it's over 9. I've been tracking these all year long. Any time my model projects a game one run different than the sportsbook line, it takes that side of the bet and tracks it. So far, we've won 55% of these bets, good enough to cover the juice and be a profitable model.
But this one is extra special. With Zebby Matthews and Peter Lambert on the hill in Houston, the model likes this game for an astounding 11.75 runs. That's +2.75 on the O/U line of 9. We've had 220 games like this with a difference of 2+ runs. The model is at 57% in those instances. So we're feeling pretty good about the over nine in this one.
My matchups model looks at how each hitter performs against pitches most like the ones they'll see from tonight's starter. We have six hitters with xwOBAs above .360 in this one, which is an elite range for xwOBA:
- Yordan Alvarez .476
- Byron Buxton .378
- Royce Lewis .378
- Josh Bell .375
- Yainer Diaz .361
- Trevor Larnach .360
You can go shopping on any of those guys for some H+R+RBI. I also like leveraging some H+R+RBI correlation. The #1 and #2 hitters, for example, are very correlated in this regard. An RBI from the #2 guy usually means a run for the #1 guy. Some of the correlation combos I like:
The 1-2:
- Larnach + Buxton
- Pena + Yordan
The 3-4:
- Clemens + Lewis
- Paredes + Walker
It's a pretty great spot for Isaac Paredes. We always like him more at home with the advantage the Crawford Boxes brings to his elite air pull rate. Zebby is one of the easiest pitchers to hit in the air, so if Paredes can pull a couple, he's likely to find the seats.
This game is stacked up, man. There are a lot of strong odds for homers. Take it how you want to take it to the books, but I'll keep it simple with my pick.
Pick: Over 9 (-103)
Padres vs. Cubs Picks
WRIGLEY WINDS ALERT. We have this game +19% in run scoring due to the weather situation. The books are pretty sharp at accounting for this stuff, and the game total is 11.5. It's Griffin Canning vs. Shota Imanaga, two guys who can give up the long ball. So there's a lot going for a bunch of runs being scored.
The Padres don't typically help in that regard. They've scored 321 runs this year, the least in the league. But check out the splits:
- Padres at home: .217/.300/.354, 41 HR
- Padres on road: .226/.295/.379, 43 HR
Only slightly better in AVG/OBP on the road, but 25 more points in SLG. Imanaga has given up 14 homers to right-handed bats this year. Only three pitchers have given up a worse home run rate to righties this year. That plus the wind plus a few very competent right-handed sticks on the Padres side make it look pretty rough Shota.
But the books have priced it all in. An 11.5 total is wild. I'm not sure if that's a proper recommendation.
The way I've liked attacking these Wrigley spots is with team home runs. To take advantage of the wind, you've still gotta hit a ball pretty hard in the air. Both teams are in great shape to do that, but who is to say who is going to hit the dinger? And the home prices are all crazy in this one.
If you can find a good price on either team over 1.5 team homers, that's how I'd go about it.
Pick: Nothing specific, but go shopping for advantageous home run lines.
Angels vs. Mariners Picks
The Angels' lineup is about as bad as it's been this year right now. Over their last 15 days, they have a .299 xwOBA. Since they lost Trout to the IL, they're hitting for a team 26.5% K% and a .284 xwOBA. Some good luck has their team's OPS in decent shape at .746, but the quality of contact and strikeout rate really don't support that.
George Kirby draws the nut matchup here. He's at home, where he's pitched much better in his career. He hasn't had the best season, but it's still a strong 3.30 SIERA at home this year and the matchup boosts him big time for this one. Kirby has the highest fantasy point projection of the night in my mode. I have him for 6.1 IP, 7 K, and 21 fantasy points. That's a big projection, and we can embrace it for our pick from this game.
Look at some of these Angels strikeout rates against righties this year.
- Neto 33%
- Soler 33%
- Adell 25%
- O'Hoppe 27%
The strikeout floor is very high for any righty taking them on.
Pick: George Kirby Over 6.5 K (-115)
Dodgers vs. Athletics Picks
Two lefties doing battle as the Athletics open up another homestand. And it is hot. We have an 82 degree forecast with 28% humidity in Sacramento, and the A's actually project to win this one with a 5.7 to 5.5 run projection from BARTOLO.
I've enjoyed picking on Eric Lauer this year. It's firework season in America, and Eric Lauer likes to light them up. He's given up a 13.3% Brl%, 12 homers, a .351 xwOBA, with just a 14.3% K% against rightis htis year. He has no good options without the platoon advantage.
The A's to bet on:
- Henry Bolte: 16% Brl% vs. RHB
- Colby Thomas: 14.3% Brl% vs. RHB
Those two are lesser-known names who you can get good prices on. It's not a great spot for the big lefties in that lineup (Kurtz & Soderstrom), at least in terms of the prices you'll find.
So I like the young righties on the Athletics side.
I also have been very impressed with Gage Jump. I'm not saying you should run out there to start him on your fantasy rosters, but he's a unique arm with a release point and fastball velo from the left-handed side that MLB hitters just haven't seen very often. He's given up a .270 xwOBA overall this year, and has yet to allow a home run in six starts. That will probably end tonight against a Dodgers lineup that is as good as it gets. But I like Jump a lot more than Lauer, and I think it gives the A's a distinct advantage.
Pick: Bolte Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+146), Athletics Moneyline (-105)
Home Run Picks
My model takes prices very seriously, weighing the gambling lines against what the projection model implies. We have nine hitters who "hit" in the model today, so I'll give you those:
- Zach Neto +650
- Jorge Soler +690
- Jo Adell +600
- Kody Clemens +430
- Jake Burger +575
- Christian Walker +355
- Francisco Alvarez +490
- Heliot Ramos +584
- Kevin McGonigle +630
Pitcher K Picks
The biggest +EV bets on the board in my model:
- Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 (-150)
- Nick Lodolo under 4.5 (+105)
- Tyler Mahle over 3.5 (-175)
- Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 (+147)
Good luck out there tonight!
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 29
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Colton Cowser Homer (+490 on DK)
- Shane Baz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 on MGM)
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+492)
- Pirates vs. Phillies Over 8.5 (-110)
- Spencer Jones HR (+558)
- Dillon Dingler HR (+464)
- Spencer Torkelson HR (+377)
- Mets vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-102)
- Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+120)
- Twins vs. Astros Over 9 (-103)
- George Kirby Over 6.5 K (-115)
- Bolte Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+146)
- Athletics Moneyline (-105)
