Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, June 13.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Cardinals 100, 0.5u (Bet to -105)
- Rangers @ Red Sox under 8 (-107), 0.54u (Bet through 8)
- White Sox +176, 0.5u (Bet to +160)
- Royals F5 -135, 0.68u (Bet to -135)
- Athletics F5 -148, 0.74u (Bet to -165)
- G.Jax over 4.5 Strikeouts -148, 1u (Bet to -175)
Cardinals @ Twins Picks
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Conner Prielipp’s 5.15 ERA is exactly two-thirds of a run higher than Matthew Liberatore’s 4.48, but the former doesn’t have an estimator above four with the exception of a 4.23 BotERA that’s still 0.27 runs better than the latter, who doesn’t have a single estimator below four.
I’m giving Prielipp a half run edge here, but still find plenty of reasons to support the road team, starting with their prowess against LHP.
As a team, the Cardinals have a 103 wRC+ against southpaws this year, which is exactly 10 points better than the Twins, but the gap between projected lineups since last season is 26 points.
Minnesota only projects three batters above average against LHP since 2025 with all three (Austin Martin, Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson) between a 146 and 151 wRC+. Nobody else reaches 95 and we probably need to consider the smaller sample size on Jackson, who was once a decent prospect, but has had trouble sticking in this league.
To make matters worse, Buxton (152) is the only projected Twin who has an above average wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The St Louis lineup projects four batters above a 120 wRC+ over the last month and only have Alex Burleson (76) and Pedro Pages (62), who have struggled against lefties since last year. Burleson leads the team with a 166 wRC+ over the last month, among qualified batters.
Transitioning to defense, the Cardinals lead the Twins by 19 Runs Prevented and 25 OAA. Projected lineups have a 21 FRV (Fielding Run Value) gap.
These two bullpens are nearly separated by three-quarters of a run via estimators over the last 30 days, St Louis owning the seventh best (3.65 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA) and Minnesota the 10th worst (4.23, 4.69, 4.18).
BARTOLO has the bullpens much closer, giving the Cardinals (24th) just a one spot edge on the Twins (25th), so perhaps this is the smallest St Louis edge.
Lastly, the Cardinals even project a four BRR (Base Running Runs) advantage over the home team. It’s not much, but helps to offset the small home field edge for the Twins.
All of the above have me projecting the Cardinals as small favorites, giving the current even money price tag just a small bit of value, though I wouldn’t play it much higher.
Pick: Cardinals 100, 0.5u (Bet to -105)
Rangers @ Red Sox Picks
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Since a four start stretch where Jacob deGrom was bitten by the home run bug, allowing 16 runs with eight home runs over 22.1 innings, he’s settled down to allow just two runs over 17 inning since, including none in his last two starts.
Even during the rough patch, he sustained a 21.7 K-BB% and allowed only seven barrels, meaning at least one of the home runs he allowed wasn’t even barreled.
There are finally some signs of aging on the 37 year-old. The velocity is down to 97.1 mph, his lowest mark since 2019, which was the second of his two Cy Young seasons, and his hard hit rate is up to a career worst 44.8% with his lowest ground ball rate (30.2%) as well.
All of that may naturally lead to a few more home runs, but deGrom’s 24.5 K-BB% is more than two points higher than last year and in line with his career rate (24.9%).
The xERA (3.65), FIP (3.75) and dERA (3.80) exceed three and a half this year, but his contact neutral estimators still hover around three, while deGrom has the second best pitch modeling on the board (2.62 Bot ERA, 120 Pitching+) barely a smidge behind Tarik Skubal (2.61, 121).
There’s still more than enough left in the tank for deGrom to remain a top of the rotation pitcher and one any team would be thrilled to have start a post-season game for them.
Ironically, both deGrom and Ranger Suarez have 3.18 ERAs and very similar xERAs (Suarez 3.62).
Suarez’s 36 GB% is also a career worst, but his 33 HardHit% is more in line with career rates, while his 16.7 K-BB% is similar to his last few seasons.
I have both pitchers around 3.5, though Suarez has the more difficult of the two matchups with the Rangers owning a 105 wRC+ on the road and just a 96 vs LHP, though the projected lineup averages a 104 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 110 wRC+ against southpaws since last year.
DeGrom has it a bit better, as the Red Sox have just an 80 wRC+ at Fenway this season and 84 wRC+ vs RHP. The projected lineup has a 95 wRC+ both over the last month and against RHP since last season.
One thing to beware of is a weather forecast that suggests a significant boost to the run scoring environment in Boston on Saturday (around 90 degrees with a light wind blowing out).
However, recent Statcast rolling three year park factors have dropped Fenway to just four percent above average and scheduled umpire Bill Miller is one of the most pitcher friendly officials in the game.
All of this probably gets Fenway to its previous run environment around six to eight percent above average, which is difficult, but not impossible for a pair of good pitchers to navigate, as Suarez’s results this year show.
Moving beyond the offenses and environment, a pair of quality defenses should take the field on Saturday with teams combining for 23 Runs Prevented and 26 OAA, both top third of the league, and projecting for 21 FRV even with the Rangers potentially fielding their lesser defensive unit against a LHP.
Both teams also own top third of the league bullpen estimators over the last 30 days. The Rangers just barely so (4.02 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA), while the Red Sox have been third best average mark in the majors (3.45, 3.30, 3.15). BARTOLO projects Texas the 17th best bullpen and Boston the 12th best overall.
Lastly, it’s not much, but when considering an under, which you’ve probably already figured out this is (bet price currently on DraftKings 8 -107), it doesn’t hurt that both lineups combine for just a single BRR.
Pick: Under 8 (-107), 0.54u (Bet through 8)
Dodgers @ White Sox Picks
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto is coming off a season high eight innings of two hit ball against the Angels, surrendering a single run, but only striking out four, just one start after setting his season high of 10 strikeouts against the Phillies.
Since a four game stretch where Yamamoto allowed at least three runs in each start (15 over 24 innings total), he’s allowed just three runs in 27.1 innings with a 19.8 K-BB%, 30.4 HardHit% and a singe barrel.
His 2.68 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.13 dERA and 3.42 FIP, though I project him most aligned with his 3.23 xFIP.
The .240 BABIP isn’t much lower than last year (.243), but probably increases a bit going forward. The 81.4 LOB% is 2.9 points above last year and should decline.
Still, Yamamoto is clearly the superior starting pitcher in this game, around three-quarters of a run ahead of Sean Burke, who’s 3.88 ERA is within one-third of a run of all indicators except for a 4.44 dERA.
On top of that, the Dodger offenses puts up video game numbers.
Team wRC+: 126 Road, 125 v RHP
Projected Lineup wRC+: 134 vs RHP since 2025, 128 L30 days
Yet, consider that the White Sox haven’t been bad in comparison
Team wRC+: 109 Home, 104 v RHP
Projected Lineup wRC+: 116 vs RHP since 2025 & L30 days.
The Dodgers still claim that edge along with approximately two-thirds of a run on bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, while BARTOLO sees a 14 team gap between the relief corps of the two teams.
The one area where the White Sox compete with the Dodgers is defensively, projecting for a 2 FRV edge.
I project the Dodgers as a healthy favorite, just not this healthy. I don't see the skill sets this far apart and have it closer to -150 than the current number, where you can get the home team at +176 (FanDuel).
Dodger edges are more moderate than monstrous with a good Whtie Sox squad clawing just a bit back with defense and home field.
It’s not a comfortable bet against a hot pitcher, but as I’m fond of saying, everything has a price and the White Sox appear to have hit theirs.
Pick: White Sox +176, 0.5u (Bet to +160)
Astros @ Royals Picks
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I debated including this one because there’s really no wiggle room from the current price, but it doesn’t hurt.
Mike Burrows has failed to live up to even modest expectations for the Astros, even with a 5.77 ERA that matches his FIP (5.75), but is more than a run above some of his other estimators, ranging from a 4.61 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+) to a 5.26 dERA.
Having 17 of his 22 barrels leave the park is a bit unfortunate and he should improve from a 17.2 HR/FB, but would still be left with a mere 9.8 K-BB% that’s certainly not helping a fly ball pitcher (37.6 GB%) inducing few popups (7.1 IFFB%).
By contrast, Noah Cameron’s 3.84 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all indicators save for his FIP (3.15) and pitch modeling (4.22 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+), which is still an improvement over his opponent. Just one-third of his barrels have left the park, suggesting Kansas City may still be a power suppressor. A 3.97 xERA aligns with actual results.
I give Cameron more than a full run edge in this matchup, which more than makes up for a minor offensive deficit.
While the Astros have a 15 point team wRC+ edge vs R/LHP, projected lineups are only separated by a single point in the same split since last season (99 to 98) and are separated by only four points (90 to 86) over the last month overall.
Projected defenses are within a single FRV (9 to 8 in favor of the home team) and we plan to avoid more than a half run bullpen edge for the Astros via last 30 day estimators, along with BARTOLO projecting the Houston bullpen 13 slots and almost three-quarters of a run better than Kansas City.
I’m endorsing the Royals F5 and just because I wouldn’t go any higher than the current Bet 365 price (-135) doesn’t mean you have to do the same. Hopefully, the information will provide beenefit regardless.
Pick: Royals F5 -135, 0.68u (Bet to -135)
Rockies @ Athletics Picks
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It used to be that you could at least rely on Kyle Freeland for some competence on the road, but with a 4.64 xFIP and 5.96 FIP away from Coors this year, that may not be true anymore.
Then, of course, there’s the possibility that he’s transitioning to a park that’s an even more difficult run environment tonight.
Freeland’s .353 BABIP and 61.2 LOB% are both ridiculous numbers and a career worsts, but let’s not ignore that the underlying numbers (4.40 SIERA to a 6.39 xERA range) paint the picture of a terrible performance either way.
Alternatively, Jeffrey Springs has not been good, but his 4.68 ERA is within half a run of all non-FIP estimators without any reaching five. Sixteen of his 22 barrels have left the yard, nine of them in Sacramento. It probably won’t get any better here.
I credit Springs with a half run edge over Freeland, though the larger gap is between the two offenses, which I project close to 50 points of wRC+.
The Rockies have just a 66 wRC+ against LHP, while their projected lineup is even worse against southpaws since last year (60 wRC+). Hunter Goodman (117) and Willi Castro (105) are the only two expected starters even above 80. They would need a near 50% boost to even get them to average offensively.
The projected Sacramento/Las Vegas/formerly Oakland lineup averages a FAR better 119 wRC+ both over the last 30 days and against LHP since last season. In fact, each of the first seven in the expected order are above average in the latter category.
The projected Colorado defense may have a small defensive advantage (5 FRV), but that hardly puts a dent in the deficit.
The A’s also have the better bullpen estimators (again FIP, xFIP and SIERA) by exactly a run over the last month and are BARTOLO’s 13th best bullpen this season against Colorado’s 26th ranking, but in such a volatile park, I’d rather stick with the pitchers I know and advocate the A’s F5 (-148 FD), where I show a bit more value than full game (-170).
Pick: Athletics F5 -148, 0.74u (Bet to -165)
Rays @ Angels Picks
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Griffin Jax has maxed out at 20 batters faced and no more than 72 pitches thrown in any of his eight starts.
He’s not handling a very heavy workload to say the least, but there are still some very interesting take aways.
Even in transitioning to a starting role, Jax has averaged a 13.8 SwStr% that exceeds his bullpen mark this season. He’s only been below 12.9% in two of his eight starts.
His 15.1 CStr% is only a bit below league average (16.5% for starting pitchers), but his 1.67 K/SwStr for the season and 1.64 mark over the last 30 days are absurdly low. Lower than any pitcher on Saturday with more than three starts in fact. Even with the CStr%, Jax should be striking out at least a quarter of the batters he faces with as many bats as he misses.
Jax has struck out RHBs (22.7%) slightly more often than LHBs (21.4%), but the Angels generally only send a LHB or two up against right-handed pitching.
In addition, the projected lineup averages a 24.5 K% against RHP since last season with everyone except Wade Meckler (17.2%), Nolan Schanuel (13.7%) and Nick Madrigal (7.4%) above 25%.
Lastly, the park the Angels play in boosts strikeouts for RHBs by 8% (I calculate a 6% boost for Jax overall, considering the mix he’ll likely face) with scheduled umpire David Rackley adding an additional 4% boost and that’s before even considering a weather forecast that may further extend that boost.
Even conservatively projecting Jax for less than two full trips through the lineup, I see value in this prop in a tremendous spot.
Pick: G.Jax o4.5 Strikeouts -148, 1u (Bet to -175)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, June 13
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cardinals 100, 0.5u (Bet to -105)
- Rangers @ Red Sox under 8 (-107), 0.54u (Bet through 8)
- White Sox +176, 0.5u (Bet to +160)
- Royals F5 -135, 0.68u (Bet to -135)
- Athletics F5 -148, 0.74u (Bet to -165)
- G.Jax over 4.5 Strikeouts -148, 1u (Bet to -175)
