Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Frank Ammirante has that job for Sunday, July 19.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Rangers ML (-122)
- Orioles/Astros Over 8.5 (-105)
- Marlins/Brewers Under 8 (-105)
Rangers vs Braves Picks
We'll start today's picks with the Rangers moneyline over the Braves.
The Rangers (50-48) have won four of their last six games, looking to take two of three from the Braves (56-41), who have lost three of their last five games. Texas has a significant edge on the mound today.
Nathan Eovaldi is pitching for the Rangers. In his last five starts, he has a 2.30 xERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 4.8% walk rate. During this stretch, Eovaldi has recorded nine or more strikeouts in four consecutive outings.
On the other side, the Braves are going with Grant Holmes, who has a 4.52 xERA on the season. Holmes has gone five innings or fewer in eight of his last nine appearances, so he's unlikely to pitch deep into this game.
Bet on Texas to get it done with Eovaldi coming into this start in terrific rhythm.
Picks: Rangers ML (-122)
Orioles vs Astros Picks
Up next, we've got the Orioles/Astros over 8.5 runs.
Baltimore is sending out Brandon Young, who has a 4.27 xERA on the season, allowing a combined seven runs in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings. This is a pitcher who has been ripe for regression for a while after a good start to the season.
Houston is going with Hunter Brown, who has struggled since returning from injury, allowing nine earned runs across 10 innings in his last two starts. Brown has issued nine walks and recorded seven strikeouts during this stretch.
Both teams have played in a low-scoring series so far. This feels like a spot where we see runs.
Bet on the Orioles and Astros to combine for 9+ runs in this one.
Picks: Over 8.5 (-105)
Marlins vs Brewers Picks
To finish it off, we're going with the Marlins/Brewers Under 8 runs.
This is a bet on Eury Perez, who has been rolling lately. Since returning from injury, Perez has a 2.03 xERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate in 23 innings across four starts.
The Brewers are going with Robert Gasser, who has a 3.82 xERA, which is much lower than his 5.24 ERA, indicating that he could see some positive regression going forward. He's trying to bounce back from a seven-run outing vs. the Pirates in his last turn.
While these teams played in a high-scoring game yesterday, this feels like more of a pitcher's duel.
Bet on the Marlins and Brewers to combine for seven runs or fewer here.
Picks: Under 8 (-105)
Ammirante's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, July 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rangers ML (-120)
- Orioles/Astros Over 8.5 (-105)
- Marlins/Brewers Under 8 (-105)
