The Sunday MLB schedule has a 13-game slate, and I'll be looking into starting pitchers Marcus Stroman, Mitchell Parker and Tanner Bibee for my MLB prop picks.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Sunday, March 30, which feature two strikeout over/unders and one outs over/under.
MLB Props & Picks for Sunday, March 30
- Marcus Stroman under 3.5 strikeouts (+115, bet365)
- Mitchell Parker under 4.5 strikeouts (- 110, DraftKings)
- Tanner Bibee under 17.5 outs (-135, DraftKings)
Brewers vs Yankees Player Props: Stroman Won't Last Long
After another offseason filled with drama surrounding his role on the team, Marcus Stroman is set to make his first start of 2025 this afternoon. Stroman struggled mightily in 2024, posting a 4.33 ERA and 4.60 FIP.
The groundball specialist's command was inconsistent last season, and that was no different in the Spring Training. Stroman worked up to 70 pitches in his final Spring Training start but did not make it out of the fourth inning.
His length in this matchup is a big question mark, and so is his ability to generate strikeouts. Stroman ranked in just the sixth percentile in strikeout rate last season and is facing a Brewers lineup that hits right-handed pitching well.
Given the Yankees' well-rested bullpen, it's hard to see Stroman seeing the lineup more than twice, which limits his window to go over this mark.
Phillies vs Nationals Player Props: Parker Is Not Gore
The Philadelphia Phillies are tasked with another lefty in Mitchell Parker this afternoon. While MacKenzie Gore carved them up on Opening Day, Parker is a much different pitcher, and Philly should have more success.
Parker was serviceable in 2024, posting a 4.29 ERA in 29 starts, but his contact metrics suggested regression from that elevated ERA. That spells trouble against a Phillies lineup ranked third in wOBA and second in batting average against lefties last season.
It should also be noted that they were just 14th in strikeout rate against lefties, and with Parker having a strikeout rate in the 30th percentile and whiff rate in the 23rd, there will be a ton more contact and possible damage on the scoreboard.
Back Parker to stay under his strikeout total as the Phillies shorten his outing.
Guardians vs Royals Player Props: Not Enough Stamina
Our last pitcher target for today's slate is Tanner Bibee. There are multiple reasons to believe Bibee will not finish the sixth inning today. The first is that he did not make a habit of it in 2024, as he went under 17.5 outs in 63 percent of his starts.
The next reason is that this is his first start of the year. While he did work up to 83 pitches in his final Spring Training start, his efficiency was an outlier, and we should see the Kansas City Royals make him work.
Lastly, Bibee's condition is a significant question. He was slated to be the starter on Opening Day but was scratched due to food poisoning, which can take a lot of energy. He may not have the stamina to see the pitch counts we saw in Spring Training.
