For my Saturday MLB player props, I'll be looking into outs recorded and strikeouts plays for two starting pitchers: Cal Quantrill and Paul Skenes.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Saturday, April 19.
MLB Prop Picks — Saturday, April 19
- Cal Quantrill Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-155, DraftKings)
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
Marlins vs Phillies Player Props: Back Quantrill to Get to 5 IP
We kick things off at Citizens Bank Park, where yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies did a number on the Marlins pitching staff. They knocked Sandy Alcantara out after just two innings, and it took four relievers to finish the remaining six innings of work.
That type of bullpen usage means the Marlins need length out of Cal Quantrill this afternoon, regardless of results. However, the Phillies have been considerably worse against righties to start the season as they rank 22nd in BABIP and 20th in wRC+.
Not much better can be said about Quantrill as he enters with a 5.79 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, but he's shown he can give us five innings when needed. He went over this number in 72% of starts last season and has also hit the mark in his last two starts this year.
Guardians vs Pirates Player Props: Fade Skenes Ks
Next, we are fading Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes. Skenes is not due for regression or even a bad outing today, but one thing of note is his whiff and strikeout rates are down nearly 5% through his first four starts of the year.
Today, Skenes takes on one of the stingiest lineups in baseball. The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the toughest teams to strike out over the last few seasons, and after an uncharacteristic start, they are slowly rounding into form.
To this point, the Guardians remain in the upper third of the league in strikeout rate and walk rate, showing they are disciplined. However, we should see them be aggressive early in counts, given that Skenes is around the zone constantly and rarely walks batters.
A high-contact lineup with a strike-throwing pitcher is a combination for minimal strikeouts, so at plus money, there's value on fading Skenes today.
