Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can't lose.
Read on for my three favorite MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 6:45 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals MLB Player Prop
Corbin Carroll
Home Run
While there are plenty of reasons to get excited about the upstart Nationals and their blossoming slew of young hitters, the Washington pitching staff is still very much a work in progress. For the season, the Nats have surrendered the fourth-most home runs (144) in baseball and also own the fourth-worst ERA (4.79) and batting average against (.261).
Only the Rockies and Athletics have allowed more runs to cross the plate than the 541 runs that Washington has conceded in 2026.
Tonight, left-hander Carson Palmquist and his career 8.87 ERA will open for Washington as they kick off a three-game series at home against Arizona. Right-hander Zack Littell, who is tied for second in the majors with 25 home runs allowed this season, will follow Palmquist as the bulk reliever. In Littell’s most recent outing, he was torched for eight earned runs, including a pair of dingers, in six innings of work.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have won five out of their first seven games since returning from the All-Star break. They have combined to score 44 runs in those five wins, and recorded a whopping 25 runs in their last two games alone.
It’s easy to see a scenario where Arizona piles it on again tonight against the struggling duo of Palmquist and Littell, and if that’s the case, Corbin Carroll needs to be the catalyst.
It’s been another tremendous season for Carroll, who ranks second on the squad in home runs (18) and is leading the team in SLG (.492) and ISO (.241). In 26 plate appearances since returning from the break, the 25-year-old phenom has tallied four extra-base hits, including a pair of homers, and holds a remarkable .440 ISO.
Carroll could get things started before Littell even enters the game, as the left-handed hitting outfielder has incredible splits against left-handed pitching. This season, Carroll is hitting .348 against lefties to go along with a 1.015 OPS, while 24 of his 97 career home runs have come against southpaws.
If Carroll doesn’t take Palmquist deep, then he should be considered an excellent candidate to leave the yard against Littell, who ranks among the 10 worst qualified major league pitchers in average exit velocity (91.7 mph) and xSLG (.535).
Pick: Corbin Carroll Home Run
Astros vs. White Sox MLB Player Prop
Colson Montgomery
Home Run
The White Sox have undoubtedly been one of baseball’s biggest surprises in 2026. Thanks to a potent offensive attack, Chicago is second in the American League in runs scored (483) and leads the Central Division by 1.5 games. This is a pretty unbelievable turnaround for a team that finished with the second-worst record in baseball just a season ago.
In the middle of that talented, young lineup stands Montgomery, who in just his second season with Chicago is turning into one of the game’s premier power hitters. His 24 home runs on the year leads the White Sox and is tied for ninth in the majors, while his 41 extra-base hits and .248 ISO also rank among the team’s leaders as well.
Against right-handers in particular, the 24-year-old has gone deep 16 times in 2026, and should have an excellent chance to add to that tally tonight against Houston righty Spencer Arrighetti.
Arrighetti has taken a step back after an outstanding start to the campaign; the 26-year-old has allowed 10 home runs combined so far through June and July after giving up just two home runs in the month of April and May. He entered his start on June 3rd with a miniscule 1.34 ERA, but has now watched it balloon all the way to 4.34.
Arrighetti has recently struggled away from his home park, as he has allowed five home runs in his last two road starts combined. His ERA on the road in 2026 is up to 5.52, which is something to watch going forward, as Arrighetti ran into similar issues a season ago when he posted a 8.50 ERA through four starts away from Dalkin Park. For his career, he owns a 5.59 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 140 innings on the road, compared to a tidy 3.46 ERA and 1.076 WHIP at home.
Look for the Jekyll and Hyde act to continue this evening, as Montgomery and the White Sox will provide a steep challenge for Arrighetti, who can’t seem to find any consistency outside of the comfort of Houston.
Pick: Colson Montgomery Home Run
Athletics vs. Twins MLB Player Prop
Ryan Jeffers
Home Run
Speaking of American League surprises, it’s a bit of a shock to see the Twins in the playoff race, especially when you consider how awful their pitching staff has been in 2026. Yet, even if Minnesota does indeed stand at the bottom of a bevy of pitching-related categories, the offense has done enough to keep them in a lot of games.
The Twins finished June with a winning record for the month and are 10-7 so far in July as they continue to hang around .500 for the season. Getting Jeffers back from an injury that cost him nearly two months has been instrumental for this team’s growing momentum, and not just because of the value he provides behind the plate.
The 29-year-old has posted one of his best offensive seasons in 2026, albeit in just 44 games; the veteran catcher is posting career-highs in batting average (.284), slugging percentage (.541), OPS (.933), and ISO (.257). The OPS is the highest on the team, while the SLG and ISO lag only behind Minnesota’s star center fielder, Byron Buxton.
In his first seven games back from the injured list, Jeffers has gone deep twice and owns a .538 SLG during that stretch. However, the biggest reason for highlighting Jeffers tonight is his overwhelming success against left-handed pitching.
For his career, Jeffers is hitting .275 against southpaws with a .860 OPS and has launched 27 home runs against lefties over the course of seven seasons. He has continued this trend in 2026, hitting .315 with a pair of home runs and a 13:7 BB:K over 67 plate appearances.
The visiting Athletics and their woeful pitching are on the other end of tonight’s matchup at Target Field and will be sending left-hander Jacob Lopez to the mound to open the three-game series. The 28-year-old has struggled to the tune of a 6.64 ERA in 2026 over the course of 15 appearances.
Lopez has faced adversity against right-handed hitters, in particular, allowing nine of his 11 home runs to come in those matchups. For the season, righties are hitting .307 against Lopez with a .536 SLG and .931 OPS.
Jeffers is 2-for-5 with a home run already in his career against Lopez and will have an excellent chance to add to that tally tonight in Minneapolis.
