Welcome to Friday Night Lights, my weekly column breaking down my favorite home run props for Friday evening’s slate.
Read on for my 3 favorite MLB player props today for Friday, June 26, with picks for Rangers vs Blue Jays and more.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 PM | |
| 7:10 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rangers vs. Blue Jays MLB Player Prop
Kazuma Okamoto
Home Run
Okamoto’s debut season in Toronto has to be considered a success so far.
Although the team has lagged behind its lofty expectations, especially after reaching the World Series last year, Okamoto has done his part to provide stability to a struggling lineup.
The 29-year-old Japanese import has launched 18 home runs so far in 2026, which is more than twice as many as the next closest Blue Jay (George Springer has eight). Okamoto also ranks as the team’s leader in ISO (.227), SLG (.469), and extra-base hits (134).
June has arguably been the best month so far for the slugging third baseman; Okamoto is hitting .316 with six home runs and a .605 SLG across his past 86 plate appearances. He has homered three times in the past five games, including last night when he destroyed a four-seam fastball from Rangers’ closer Jacob Latz and sent it a whopping 420 feet.
What stands out the most for Okamoto in his debut campaign is his success against fastballs.
When facing four-seamers in particular, he is hitting .326 with a .663 SLG. Statcast considers Okamoto to have the fourth-highest run value of any hitter against any pitch in the majors this season — only Ben Rice (four-seamer), Mike Trout (four-seamer), and Willson Contreras (sinker) have caused more damage to a single type of pitch in 2026.
Although right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, tonight’s starter for Texas, has a wide variety of pitches in his arsenal, all it takes is one poorly-placed heater from either Eovaldi or a Texas reliever for Okamoto to send a souvenir deep into the bleachers.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run
Diamondbacks vs. Rays MLB Player Prop
Junior Caminero
Home Run
It’s hard to believe Caminero is just 22 years old. It’s now his second full season with Tampa Bay, and the superstar third baseman continues to be an absolute machine at the plate.
After belting 45 home runs a season ago, he is up to 19 bombs so far in 2026, which ranks sixth in the American League, to go along with a .234 ISO and .519 SLG. Caminero sent three more balls over the fence last night, all of which left the bat at over 103 MPH, and has now gone deep six times in just 95 June plate appearances. In addition, he has scorched 31 batted balls over 100 MPH just this month alone.
With an average bat speed of 80 MPH (the highest mark in the majors among all hitters) and an average exit velocity of 93.3 MPH (tied for 13th in the MLB among qualified hitters), it’s easy to wonder if Caminero was built in some sort of hitting laboratory.
Meanwhile, Zac Gallen’s career trajectory is going in a much different direction than Caminero's.
A former All-Star and Cy Young Award candidate, the 30-year-old Gallen has not been the same pitcher in 2026. Opponents are hitting .317 against the right-hander, which ranks among the top 10 worst marks among qualified pitchers. His 5.87 K/9 and 6.10 ERA do not inspire much hope either.
Arizona will likely start its former ace tonight in Tampa after Gallen and the Diamondbacks were rained out in St. Louis yesterday. Perhaps the extra day of rest will help his cause, as the right-hander was bullied in his last start to the tune of nine earned runs over four innings of work.
However, it’s more likely that Caminero and the Rays pounce on Gallen early and often. He features his four-seam fastball and slider 70% of the time to right-handed bats, but both pitches have been pounded this season and are considered by Statcast to have significantly negative run values.
I would bet on Caminero staying hot tonight, especially with Gallen looking like a shell of his former self.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run
Royals vs. White Sox MLB Player Prop
Carter Jensen
Home Run
It’s been a tough start to the 2026 campaign for the last-place Royals, but at least there is plenty of excitement to be had about the franchise’s next wave of stars.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a perennial MVP candidate at just 26 years old. Jac Caglianone and his prodigious power have made headlines in just his second season in the majors.
Now, it’s Carter Jensen and his 16-game hitting streak that’s giving Kansas City fans hope for the future.
At 22 years old, and in his first full major league season with the Royals after a cup of coffee in 2025, Jensen has been turning heads with his recent play in spite of the team’s struggles. Over his past 16 games, he's hitting .344 with four home runs and a .641 SLG. For the year, he ranks second on the team in both home runs (11) and extra-base hits (27).
Last night, in a 13-2 loss to the Rays, Jensen extended his streak with a 425-foot blast off a fastball from Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning that left the bat at 105.7 MPH.
Look away, Royals’ fans: it was the team’s only hit of the night.
Speaking of fastballs, Jensen has been thriving against the heater so far in 2026, with seven of his 11 home runs coming against various versions of the pitch.
Tonight’s opponent, right-hander David Sandlin, has used a combination of his four-seam, cutter, and sinker 52% of the time against left-handed bats like Jensen. Albeit a small sample size, opponents are slugging .647 against the four-seamer in particular so far this season.
The 25-year-old Sandlin is back in the majors after making a handful of appearances earlier in the year. With four home runs allowed and an 8.10 ERA in just 13 1/3 innings of work so far this season, look for Jensen and the Royals to bounce back tonight against Sandlin and cause some damage in the South Side of Chicago.
