Can you believe that we're in the final week of the MLB regular season? It's been a long but fruitful journey for many teams, and we still have time to capitalize in the betting sphere this week.
So, even with just four games on the slate, I've found three players worth betting on.
Let's meet them in our top MLB player props for Sept. 23.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Monday, Sept. 23
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130, bet365)
- Bryce Miller Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115, bet365)
- Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Player Props: Vlad to Continue Big Second Half
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had a monster second half. The 25-year-old slugger comes in hitting .391 with a 1.178 OPS since the All-Star break.
He's done a majority of his damage this season against right-handed pitching, as he's hitting .330 against righties with 58 of his 72 extra-base hits coming against that split.
Tonight, Guerrero will face a familiar foe in Tanner Houck. Guerrero has seen the ball well from Houck, as he's 5-for-15 with two doubles against him.
However, he's due for more success against Houck (his xBA is .340), and it should come in the form of extra bases (his xSLG is .639).
Given that these two are trending in opposite directions, Guerrero should get the better of Houck tonight, and should do so in a big way.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Mariners vs Astros Player Props: How to Back Miller
Bryce Miller has quietly put together a stellar season for the Seattle Mariners. Miller will make his 31st start tonight, and he'll enter with a 3.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
His excellent command has enabled him to efficiently navigate lineups, and he'll need to be sharp tonight as the Houston Astros' lineup is at full strength.
While the Astros' order may be daunting, they haven't been particularly hot as a group.
Houston ranks just 19th in wRC+ and 14th in OBP against righties over the last 15 days. Houston's aggressiveness at the plate may work against it if it continues to scuffle.
Miller has excelled at limiting hard contact, but he'll attack hitters early in the count. The Astros' tendencies play into his pitching method, so we should see many quick outs.
On average, Miller has allowed just 4.3 hits per start and has gone under this total in 70% of his 30 starts.
With the 'Stros not in prime form, we can bank on Miller holding them in check tonight.
Pick: Bryce Miller Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
Giants vs Diamondbacks Player Props: Don't Expect Whiffs
Lastly, we'll go back to the starter we've faded successfully this year, Eduardo Rodriguez.
The 31-year-old lefty has been unable to find success in Arizona this year, as through eight starts, he holds a 5.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.
Rodriguez has struggled with his command and has been unable to fool hitters when ahead. His strikeout rate is down three percent from last season, and he's shown no signs of improvement.
So, while he has a good matchup for strikeouts tonight in the San Francisco Giants, we have to fade him.
The Giants, despite their high whiff rates against lefties, have shown they can do damage against them, as well.
San Francisco is still 13th in wRC+ against lefties, even after ranking last in wRC+ against them over the last month. The Giants are primed to break out of their slump, and Rodriguez is the perfect guy to get them back on track.
So, with the Giants expected to round into form, don't expect many strikeouts from E-Rod tonight.
Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
